After The Close, 13 May 2009
Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data
Open: 184.43
High: 187.20
Low: 173.57
Close: 175.79
Volume: 7542
Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 5 0 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.
Well, we saw this coming but it’s not the end of the world yet. As this top was first forming I remember giving the opinion that it could drop down to the 160 level (it’s there somewhere in the archives). It looks like that’s where this is heading. BUT, you might say, isn’t the price of uranium on the advance? How could the stocks be dropping? Well, they don’t naturally move together. The stocks may have advanced first (as is the usual case) and the metal advancing after. The stocks now are into a rest period getting ready for the next advance, which will come --- who knows when? These rest/reaction periods are always there during a bull market and cause speculators a lot of anxiety but at the present time there still is no need to worry.
The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed lower by 10.72 points or 5.75%. Not quite up to last Thursday’s decline but close. There were only 7 winners but a whole lot more losers at 40, with 3 abstaining. The five largest stocks didn’t have such a good day either. Cameco lost 5.9%, First Uranium lost 2.5%, Paladin lost 7.8%, Uranium One lost 10.4% and USEC lost 10.0%. The best performer on the day was Western Goldfields with a gain of 5.7% while the loser on the day was Energy Fuels with a loss of 19.6%.
Nothing has changed on the intermediate term and I don’t expect anything to change for at least a few more days. The Index is above its positive moving average line and the momentum indicator is still in its positive zone although below its negative trigger line and heading lower. The volume indicator continues to plot a lateral path but remains above its positive trigger line. The intermediate term rating remains BULLISH.
There are some changes coming in on the short term, where we expect any changes to occur first. The Index has suddenly closed below the short term moving average line and the line has turned downward. The momentum indicator is still in its positive zone but moving lower fast and is below its negative trigger line. The daily volume action is not telling us very much at this time but maybe will say something in another few days. The sharp reversal of activity today has turned the short term rating right around. It is now fully BEARISH. The very short term moving average line has also turned downward but has not quite closed below the short term line for this bear confirmation. That could come with one more down day.
As for the immediate direction of least resistance, the trend is towards the down side and the Stochastic Oscillator has now dropped into its negative zone so I will now go with the down side as the direction of least resistance.
The activity remains within that up trending channel and it is quite possible that the down move could take us back to the support line. By time it gets there the support line could be at the 150 level where there is strong indicated support from previous activity. So, 160 or 150, in either case I don’t think it’s a new long term bear market.
Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data
Open: 184.43
High: 187.20
Low: 173.57
Close: 175.79
Volume: 7542
Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 5 0 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.
Well, we saw this coming but it’s not the end of the world yet. As this top was first forming I remember giving the opinion that it could drop down to the 160 level (it’s there somewhere in the archives). It looks like that’s where this is heading. BUT, you might say, isn’t the price of uranium on the advance? How could the stocks be dropping? Well, they don’t naturally move together. The stocks may have advanced first (as is the usual case) and the metal advancing after. The stocks now are into a rest period getting ready for the next advance, which will come --- who knows when? These rest/reaction periods are always there during a bull market and cause speculators a lot of anxiety but at the present time there still is no need to worry.
The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed lower by 10.72 points or 5.75%. Not quite up to last Thursday’s decline but close. There were only 7 winners but a whole lot more losers at 40, with 3 abstaining. The five largest stocks didn’t have such a good day either. Cameco lost 5.9%, First Uranium lost 2.5%, Paladin lost 7.8%, Uranium One lost 10.4% and USEC lost 10.0%. The best performer on the day was Western Goldfields with a gain of 5.7% while the loser on the day was Energy Fuels with a loss of 19.6%.
Nothing has changed on the intermediate term and I don’t expect anything to change for at least a few more days. The Index is above its positive moving average line and the momentum indicator is still in its positive zone although below its negative trigger line and heading lower. The volume indicator continues to plot a lateral path but remains above its positive trigger line. The intermediate term rating remains BULLISH.
There are some changes coming in on the short term, where we expect any changes to occur first. The Index has suddenly closed below the short term moving average line and the line has turned downward. The momentum indicator is still in its positive zone but moving lower fast and is below its negative trigger line. The daily volume action is not telling us very much at this time but maybe will say something in another few days. The sharp reversal of activity today has turned the short term rating right around. It is now fully BEARISH. The very short term moving average line has also turned downward but has not quite closed below the short term line for this bear confirmation. That could come with one more down day.
As for the immediate direction of least resistance, the trend is towards the down side and the Stochastic Oscillator has now dropped into its negative zone so I will now go with the down side as the direction of least resistance.
The activity remains within that up trending channel and it is quite possible that the down move could take us back to the support line. By time it gets there the support line could be at the 150 level where there is strong indicated support from previous activity. So, 160 or 150, in either case I don’t think it’s a new long term bear market.
1 comment:
sell in may go away...stupid i know but true
morty
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