After The Close, 06 May 2009
Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data
Open: 189.23
High: 194.80
Low: 183.98
Close: 190.39
Volume: 8044
Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 5 0 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.
Well, despite the upside move, the topping process seems to be still intact. I have shown the very popular MACD indicator. It is nothing other than the difference between two exponential moving averages (12 and 26 period averages). I guess I’m one of those rare technicians that is not too enamored with the MACD but it is a very popular momentum indicator and does a lot of technicians a lot of good. Using daily data I guess the MACD would be somewhere between a short and intermediate term indicator. The two time periods are fixed for the MACD. You can fool around with the periods to give you information either more or less volatile but then the indicator would not be the MACD, it would then become a Price Oscillator.
The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed higher by 3.92 points or 2.05%. There were 29 winners, 15 losers and 6 stocks just sitting there doing nothing. All of the five largest stocks were in the up category. Cameco gained 1.2%, First Uranium gained 6.0%, Paladin gained 2.3%, Uranium One gained 1.1% and USEC gained 1.6%. The best winner on the day was Uranium Energy with an 11.4% gain while the loser on the day was Xemplar Energy with a loss of 12.0%.
The intermediate term is still looking good and is a long way from reversing rating. The Daily Index remains well above its positive moving average line and the momentum indicator (the normal RSI) remains well in its positive zone, above its positive sloping trigger line. The volume indicator is still tracking positively and above its positive trigger line. However, the volume indicator, which had been a leading indicator predicting the up side move, is now starting to weaken. Nothing yet serious but a weakness in its trend is starting to be noticed. Still, the intermediate term rating remains BULLISH.
On the short term the action is not much different from the intermediate term, except maybe more noticeable. The Daily Index remains above its positive moving average line with the very short term average (not shown) still well above the short term line. We can see weakness coming in on the strength end in the short term momentum indicator. Although the Index has been making continued higher highs this past week or so the momentum indicator has not made a new high for three Index highs ago. The Index move into higher territory is just not being supported by the momentum activity. The daily volume action shows the upside volume slowly getting lower and lower. All is in place for an extended rest period or a short reaction into lower levels. In the mean time the short term rating remains BULLISH.
Looking at the very short term or more aggressive indicators, the Stochastic Oscillator continues to show weakness and although it has once more entered its overbought zone it has done so very, very minimally. It is much lower than during previous Index highs. I will continue with the lateral direction as the direction of least resistance for now although the action seems to suggest some lower levels ahead.
Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data
Open: 189.23
High: 194.80
Low: 183.98
Close: 190.39
Volume: 8044
Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 5 0 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.
Well, despite the upside move, the topping process seems to be still intact. I have shown the very popular MACD indicator. It is nothing other than the difference between two exponential moving averages (12 and 26 period averages). I guess I’m one of those rare technicians that is not too enamored with the MACD but it is a very popular momentum indicator and does a lot of technicians a lot of good. Using daily data I guess the MACD would be somewhere between a short and intermediate term indicator. The two time periods are fixed for the MACD. You can fool around with the periods to give you information either more or less volatile but then the indicator would not be the MACD, it would then become a Price Oscillator.
The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed higher by 3.92 points or 2.05%. There were 29 winners, 15 losers and 6 stocks just sitting there doing nothing. All of the five largest stocks were in the up category. Cameco gained 1.2%, First Uranium gained 6.0%, Paladin gained 2.3%, Uranium One gained 1.1% and USEC gained 1.6%. The best winner on the day was Uranium Energy with an 11.4% gain while the loser on the day was Xemplar Energy with a loss of 12.0%.
The intermediate term is still looking good and is a long way from reversing rating. The Daily Index remains well above its positive moving average line and the momentum indicator (the normal RSI) remains well in its positive zone, above its positive sloping trigger line. The volume indicator is still tracking positively and above its positive trigger line. However, the volume indicator, which had been a leading indicator predicting the up side move, is now starting to weaken. Nothing yet serious but a weakness in its trend is starting to be noticed. Still, the intermediate term rating remains BULLISH.
On the short term the action is not much different from the intermediate term, except maybe more noticeable. The Daily Index remains above its positive moving average line with the very short term average (not shown) still well above the short term line. We can see weakness coming in on the strength end in the short term momentum indicator. Although the Index has been making continued higher highs this past week or so the momentum indicator has not made a new high for three Index highs ago. The Index move into higher territory is just not being supported by the momentum activity. The daily volume action shows the upside volume slowly getting lower and lower. All is in place for an extended rest period or a short reaction into lower levels. In the mean time the short term rating remains BULLISH.
Looking at the very short term or more aggressive indicators, the Stochastic Oscillator continues to show weakness and although it has once more entered its overbought zone it has done so very, very minimally. It is much lower than during previous Index highs. I will continue with the lateral direction as the direction of least resistance for now although the action seems to suggest some lower levels ahead.
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