Merv's Weekly Commentary 25 Apr 2009

Merv’s Weekly Uranium Review
for week ending 24 April 2009

Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data for Friday 24 Apr 2009

Open: 157.72
Hugh: 167.65
Low: 155.66
Close: 164.07
Volume: 9926

Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.

Well it sure looks like we are getting on a roll. Four good days with improving daily volume activity. The Daily Index has moved into new recovery highs and looks set to continue further, however, these moves never just go straight up but do take some kind of rest or consolidation of gains before continuing. When that will happen is anyone’s guess at this time.

On Friday the Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed 7.44 points higher or 4.75%, finishing off a very good week. There were 40 daily winners and 10 daily losers. There were no stocks not knowing which way they were going. As for the five largest stocks, one was lower, the rest were higher. Cameco gained 4.8%, First Uranium lost 2.1%, Paladin gained 3.6%, Uranium One gained 6.5% and USEC gained 6.2%. The best winner on the day was Alberta Star with a gain of 35.7% while the loser on the day was Globex Mining with a loss of 6.7%.

For the week as a whole the Merv’s Weekly Uranium Index was up 564.59 points or 13.89% (the Daily Index closed up 9.39% for the week). There were 36 weekly winners, 11 weekly losers and 3 stocks that went nowhere. As for the 5 largest stocks, Cameco gained 15.7%, First Uranium gained 0.8%, Paladin gained 7.7%, Uranium One gained 10.0% and USEC gained 4.0%. The best weekly gainer was Purepoint Uranium (a new component) with a gain of 57.1% while the loser on the week was Kodiak with a loss of 15.9%.

This week’s analysis is pretty simple. On the long term the Weekly Index is above its positive sloping moving average line as is the Daily Index above its long term positive line. The long term momentum indicator (both the weekly and daily versions) is just below its neutral line in the negative zone but moving upwards above its positive trigger line. The Volume indicator is once more in all time new highs above its positive sloping trigger line. The long term rating remains BULLISH.

On the intermediate term everything is positive. The Daily Index is above its positive moving average line, the momentum indicator is in its positive zone above its positive trigger line and the volume indicator is in new high territory above its positive trigger line. The intermediate term rating can only be BULLISH.

The short term has a similar story except that the momentum indicator has now entered its overbought zone. That usually indicates a rest period or maybe even a reaction ahead. When, depends very much if the latest move is the start of a good bull move or just a strong rally. A good move might keep the momentum indicator in its overbought zone for some time while a good rally is more likely to run out of steam faster. The short term is rated as BULLISH but cautionary.

As for the direction of least resistance, that would have to be to the up side although the aggressive Stochastic Oscillator is also in its overbought zone from which moves have a habit of stopping.

I will still be posting sporadically until about the middle of next week. Then I should be back to normal.