Merv’s Weekly Uranium Review
for week ending 13 March 2009
Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data for Friday 13 Mar 2009
Open: 129.13
Hugh: 132.19
Low: 124.05
Close: 128.21
Volume: 5267
Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.
Well another week goes by and another lateral move by the Daily Index. The Daily Index closed the week with a weekly gain of about 2% while the Weekly Index gained 4.6%. Both Indices are, however, trending the same, in a slow downward direction. The trend is more identifiable in the Daily Index as would be expected. Although the week was on the up side the trend is not. Still, not much movement can be seen from the negative trend. The trend is just too shallow to call it a bear trend and that is why I prefer to call it lateral at this time. The previous lateral trend lasted three months. We are now at two and a half with this trend so one just might expect something more dramatic to happen soon, versus the nibble, nibble we have seen lately in the Index.
The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed the day on Friday down 1.94 points or 1.49%. There were 29 daily winners, 15 daily losers and 6 going nowhere. Despite the Index closing lower the breadth of the market was on the up side. As for the five largest stocks, Cameco lost 2.2%, Paladin gained 3.1%, Uranium One gained 0.5%, Uranium Participation gained 0.8% and USEC lost 0.8%. The best gainer on the day was Uranium Energy with a gain of 19.2% while the loser of the day was Forsys Metals with a loss of 29.5%.
As for the week as a whole, the Merv’s Weekly Uranium Index closed the week with a weekly gain of 144.70 points or 4.57%. There were 32 stocks on the advance, 13 stocks on the decline and 5 stocks unchanged. For the week the five largest stocks all closed on the up side. Cameco gained 6.1%, Paladin gained 14.0%, Uranium One gained 30.1%, Uranium Participation gained 7.6% and USEC gained 11.6%. The best weekly winner was Strathmore Minerals with a weekly gain of 48.8% while the biggest loser of the week was Forsys Metals with a loss of 40.9%.
The long term rating remains as it has been for a year and a half, bearish. The Weekly Index remains below its negative moving average line and the momentum indicator remains in its negative zone. Looking at the Daily Index the momentum has moved above its trigger line but otherwise everything else is still negative. The long term rating remains BEARISH.
On the intermediate term the Daily Index remains below its negative sloping moving average line and the momentum indicator remains in its negative zone. The indicator has moved just above its trigger line and the trigger has just turned to the up side. However, the direction of motion on Friday was to the downside for the indicator. The volume indicator is still the most positive of the indicators and is just shy of its top. It remains above its positive trigger line. Hopefully the strength of the volume will lift the Index higher over the next few days. On the intermediate term there is still nothing that has changed and the rating remains BEARISH.
On the short term the Daily Index closed just above its positive sloping moving average line. The momentum indicator was heading towards its neutral line but didn’t quite make it before the week-end. It remains just below the neutral line in the negative zone. It is, however, above its positive sloping trigger line. The daily volume activity remains underwhelming and needs to perk up more. On the short term the rating remains BULLISH.
As for the immediate direction of least resistance, I went positive on Thursday and I think I’ll remain with that direction. Nothing that I mentioned on Thursday has changed.
For those that are interested in the news part of uranium investing there seems to be a good article in the Uranium Info link on the left of the front page. It seems to suggest an $80 uranium price by year end (it’s now at about $43). I have not read the full article but for those interested, go to it.
Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.
Well another week goes by and another lateral move by the Daily Index. The Daily Index closed the week with a weekly gain of about 2% while the Weekly Index gained 4.6%. Both Indices are, however, trending the same, in a slow downward direction. The trend is more identifiable in the Daily Index as would be expected. Although the week was on the up side the trend is not. Still, not much movement can be seen from the negative trend. The trend is just too shallow to call it a bear trend and that is why I prefer to call it lateral at this time. The previous lateral trend lasted three months. We are now at two and a half with this trend so one just might expect something more dramatic to happen soon, versus the nibble, nibble we have seen lately in the Index.
The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed the day on Friday down 1.94 points or 1.49%. There were 29 daily winners, 15 daily losers and 6 going nowhere. Despite the Index closing lower the breadth of the market was on the up side. As for the five largest stocks, Cameco lost 2.2%, Paladin gained 3.1%, Uranium One gained 0.5%, Uranium Participation gained 0.8% and USEC lost 0.8%. The best gainer on the day was Uranium Energy with a gain of 19.2% while the loser of the day was Forsys Metals with a loss of 29.5%.
As for the week as a whole, the Merv’s Weekly Uranium Index closed the week with a weekly gain of 144.70 points or 4.57%. There were 32 stocks on the advance, 13 stocks on the decline and 5 stocks unchanged. For the week the five largest stocks all closed on the up side. Cameco gained 6.1%, Paladin gained 14.0%, Uranium One gained 30.1%, Uranium Participation gained 7.6% and USEC gained 11.6%. The best weekly winner was Strathmore Minerals with a weekly gain of 48.8% while the biggest loser of the week was Forsys Metals with a loss of 40.9%.
The long term rating remains as it has been for a year and a half, bearish. The Weekly Index remains below its negative moving average line and the momentum indicator remains in its negative zone. Looking at the Daily Index the momentum has moved above its trigger line but otherwise everything else is still negative. The long term rating remains BEARISH.
On the intermediate term the Daily Index remains below its negative sloping moving average line and the momentum indicator remains in its negative zone. The indicator has moved just above its trigger line and the trigger has just turned to the up side. However, the direction of motion on Friday was to the downside for the indicator. The volume indicator is still the most positive of the indicators and is just shy of its top. It remains above its positive trigger line. Hopefully the strength of the volume will lift the Index higher over the next few days. On the intermediate term there is still nothing that has changed and the rating remains BEARISH.
On the short term the Daily Index closed just above its positive sloping moving average line. The momentum indicator was heading towards its neutral line but didn’t quite make it before the week-end. It remains just below the neutral line in the negative zone. It is, however, above its positive sloping trigger line. The daily volume activity remains underwhelming and needs to perk up more. On the short term the rating remains BULLISH.
As for the immediate direction of least resistance, I went positive on Thursday and I think I’ll remain with that direction. Nothing that I mentioned on Thursday has changed.
For those that are interested in the news part of uranium investing there seems to be a good article in the Uranium Info link on the left of the front page. It seems to suggest an $80 uranium price by year end (it’s now at about $43). I have not read the full article but for those interested, go to it.
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