After The Close, 12 Mar 2009
Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data
Open: 128.43
High: 133.93
Low: 124.51
Close: 130.15
Volume: 7225
Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 5 0 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.
Things are starting (again) to look good. Although not everything has gone positive the market is heading in that direction. We’re still in the channel but are now in the middle and heading towards the top.
The chart today shows the Daily Index from the time it was first developed to the present. Some interesting things here that may not be as evident on a weekly Index. We see quite clearly where the momentum is relative to previous periods. It is just on the verge of moving into its positive zone and could quickly reach its highest strength in a year and a half. The volume indicator is also interesting despite the 85% decline in the Index. Despite the decline the volume action suggests that most of the speculators rode the price all the way down, and are now waiting for the new bull market. BUT they will need a bull market of at least 400% to get back to the previous high. The problem of “buy and hold” illustrated.
The long term moving average line is very close to the recent action in the Daily Index. One wonders if it will be a resistance to further upside moves or if it will be breached and the bull starts to really run.
The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed on the up side for another day. It was up a.73 points or 1.34%. There were 33 winners, 14 losers and 3 going nowhere. Again, looking better from the market breadth point of view. Cameco lost 1.2% but it was the only loser of the five largest stocks. Paladin gained 7.0%, Uranium One gained 8.2%, Uranium Participation gained 5.3% and USEC gained 6.5%. The best winner on the day was East Asia Minerals with a gain of 23.3% while the worst loser was Forsys Metals with a loss of 16.0%.
The intermediate term is getting closer and closer to a change in ratings. The Index has touched the moving average line but still closed below the negative sloping line. The momentum indicator is moving higher but is still in its negative zone. It is above its positive trigger line. The volume indicator is at its highest level since last July. It is in a positive mood and above its positive trigger line. Although we are getting some firming up we have not yet reached a point of improving the rating (but getting close). The intermediate term rating remains BEARISH for another day.
The short term is improving faster than the intermediate term, which is to be expected. The Index is now above its moving average line with the line slope having now changed to the up side. The momentum indicator is moving upwards at a faster rate than the Index is, suggesting some strength behind the move. The indicator is just shy of its neutral line and still in the negative zone but above its positive trigger line. The daily volume action perked up today but let’s wait for a few days of decent upside action before we get too excited about the volume interest. All in all, the short term has now improved to the BULLISH level.
As for the immediate direction of least resistance, well I’m going to jump and finally go with the up side. I know I said that I’d wait till the Index reached 132 but it does look like the up side is it. The Index is above its very short term positive sloping moving average line. The aggressive Stochastic Oscillator is now in its positive zone and moving higher aggressively and the Index closed above the past several days of closing prices. Every thing is moving in the upward direction. Let’s get positive.
Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data
Open: 128.43
High: 133.93
Low: 124.51
Close: 130.15
Volume: 7225
Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 5 0 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.
Things are starting (again) to look good. Although not everything has gone positive the market is heading in that direction. We’re still in the channel but are now in the middle and heading towards the top.
The chart today shows the Daily Index from the time it was first developed to the present. Some interesting things here that may not be as evident on a weekly Index. We see quite clearly where the momentum is relative to previous periods. It is just on the verge of moving into its positive zone and could quickly reach its highest strength in a year and a half. The volume indicator is also interesting despite the 85% decline in the Index. Despite the decline the volume action suggests that most of the speculators rode the price all the way down, and are now waiting for the new bull market. BUT they will need a bull market of at least 400% to get back to the previous high. The problem of “buy and hold” illustrated.
The long term moving average line is very close to the recent action in the Daily Index. One wonders if it will be a resistance to further upside moves or if it will be breached and the bull starts to really run.
The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed on the up side for another day. It was up a.73 points or 1.34%. There were 33 winners, 14 losers and 3 going nowhere. Again, looking better from the market breadth point of view. Cameco lost 1.2% but it was the only loser of the five largest stocks. Paladin gained 7.0%, Uranium One gained 8.2%, Uranium Participation gained 5.3% and USEC gained 6.5%. The best winner on the day was East Asia Minerals with a gain of 23.3% while the worst loser was Forsys Metals with a loss of 16.0%.
The intermediate term is getting closer and closer to a change in ratings. The Index has touched the moving average line but still closed below the negative sloping line. The momentum indicator is moving higher but is still in its negative zone. It is above its positive trigger line. The volume indicator is at its highest level since last July. It is in a positive mood and above its positive trigger line. Although we are getting some firming up we have not yet reached a point of improving the rating (but getting close). The intermediate term rating remains BEARISH for another day.
The short term is improving faster than the intermediate term, which is to be expected. The Index is now above its moving average line with the line slope having now changed to the up side. The momentum indicator is moving upwards at a faster rate than the Index is, suggesting some strength behind the move. The indicator is just shy of its neutral line and still in the negative zone but above its positive trigger line. The daily volume action perked up today but let’s wait for a few days of decent upside action before we get too excited about the volume interest. All in all, the short term has now improved to the BULLISH level.
As for the immediate direction of least resistance, well I’m going to jump and finally go with the up side. I know I said that I’d wait till the Index reached 132 but it does look like the up side is it. The Index is above its very short term positive sloping moving average line. The aggressive Stochastic Oscillator is now in its positive zone and moving higher aggressively and the Index closed above the past several days of closing prices. Every thing is moving in the upward direction. Let’s get positive.
2 comments:
Pretty interesting how the RSI has been stuck at the 50 level for such a long protracted period of time, without almost no fluctuation.
Not sure how to interpret that, except that it looks apathetic, and/or that the resistance is severe.
Any significance Merv?
Anonymous
One needs to understand the construction of the RSI and what it is telling us. I should post a brief explaination of the RSI sometimes during the week-end if I find the time. Otherwise I'll get it posted on Monday.
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