Merv’s Weekly Uranium Review
for week ending 20 February 2009
Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data for Friday 20 Feb 2009
Open: 136.17
Hugh: 138.95
Low: 130.03
Close: 134.01
Volume: 4289
Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.
Well, the slow but steady downward drift continues, but something’s gotta give. The Daily Index closed the week having touched the lower support from the “box” pattern and is just at the lower support trend line of the upward sloping channel. Very little room is left on the down side before the Index performs a double downside break. So, what should we expect, a downside break or a rally from these levels back to the upper resistance lines of those two patterns? Oh! If only I knew I could be a rich man. But no-one knows, we are all just guessing or taking educated stabs at the future. So let’s see what the educated stabs will show us.
The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed on Friday with a loss of 3.33 points or 2.42%. There were only 9 winners, 35 losers and 6 going nowhere. All in all not such a good day. All of the five largest stocks were losers. Cameco lost 2.2%, Paladin lost 7.1%, Uranium One lost 5.1%, Uranium Participation lost 6.1% and USEC lost 3.4%. The winner of the day was Western Prospector with a mild win of 7.1% (not much for the best of the day) and the loser on the day was Titan Uranium with a loss of 15.9%.
As for the week as a whole, the Merv’s Weekly Uranium Index closed the week with a loss of 337.11 points or 9.04% (the weekly loss of the Daily Index was 5.56% see explanation of the Index calculation in Thursday’s comment section). There were 11 weekly winners, 38 losers and 1 going nowhere. As for the five largest stocks, Cameco lost 10% on the week, Paladin lost 9.8%, Uranium One lost 11.8%, Uranium Participation lost 9.9% and USEC lost 7.5%. The best weekly winner was Altius Minerals with a weekly gain of 28.8% while the loser of the week was Bayswater Uranium with a loss of 37.9%.
Looking at the long term nothing much has changed from last week. The Weekly Index is sitting right on top of its long term moving average line while the Daily Index is still some distance below its line. In both cases the moving average continues to point downward. The long term momentum indicator remains in its negative zone and is below its negative trigger line. The long term rating remains BEARISH.
On the intermediate term the Daily Index had crossed below the moving average line during the day but ended up closing above the line. The line remains sloping upward. The momentum indicator is basically confirming the neutral like lateral trending of the Index. It remains just below its neutral line in the negative zone and below its negative trigger line. As for the volume indicator, it’s coming down but is still above its positive sloping intermediate term trigger line. Putting it all together the intermediate term rating remains at + NEUTRAL.
On the short term changes happen here first (usually). The Index is pulling away from the moving average line on the down side. The moving average line is now also sloping downward. The momentum indicator has moved into its negative zone and is below its negative trigger line. As for the daily volume action, it remains low but this is the normal volume action during a decline. On the short term the Index remains BEARISH.
As for the immediate direction of least resistance that might be said to be to the down side with the aggressive Stochastic Oscillator (SO) in its negative zone and getting weaker while the Index moves lower below its very short term moving average line. However, as long as the Index remains inside its two patterns, and especially inside its “box” pattern I will continue with the lateral as the direction, unless the Index makes a sudden move to negate the neutralness (that’s not a real word but it seems right) of the recent action.
As for the educated stab at the future mentioned earlier, I’ll go with the up side only because more people would be happier with the up side than the down side. That’s a stab -- educated is another thing.
Just to spoil things the Weekly Index closed the week below its past several weeks of trading unlike the Daily Index which is still within its (box) trading range. Now comes the question, will the Weekly pull the Daily down with it or will the Daily pull the Weekly upwards?
2 comments:
A stab it is. To me this is all a question of the S&P's direction.
Was Friday's retest a base from which we go back to the top of the channel, or just quick relief before we head lower.
A break of 742 would IMHO be too much for the U's to continue to hold support.
Maybe "The TurboTax Treasurer" will actually have an intelligent detailed plan to absorb toxic assets on the Fed's balance sheet, without diluting financial shareholders, which could provide a major bear market rally.
This would almost certainly get us out of the downtrend and into breakout territory.
Our government is running out of chances to build confidence IMO.
Neutrality.
Thanks for the work done here, as always.
Post a Comment