After The Close, 19 Feb 2009
Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data
Open: 138.11
High: 141.98
Low: 134.09
Close: 137.33
Volume: 7066
Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 5 0 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.
Another ho-hum day but this time slightly on the down side. The Daily Index was lower but the broader market (market breadth) was positive. We’re still not going anywhere except in a lateral direction. Frustrating!
The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed lower today by 1.10 points or 0.79%. Despite the decline there were more winners than losers. 28 stocks were winners, 16 losers and 6 going nowhere. As for the five largest stocks they were mixed. Cameco lost 7.6%, Paladin gained 5.9%. Uranium One gained 5.4%, Uranium Participation gained 0.2% and USEC lost 0.7%. The best winner on the day was Strateco with a gain of 18.6% while the loser of the day was Formation Capital with a loss of 10.5%.
The chart today is an intermediate term point and figure (P&F) chart. This chart still does not have us in a bull market. My criteria for a trend reversal is that the action moves above two previous highs (which it has) AND has breached above its down trend line (which it has not). The reverse is true for a reversal to the bear side, which last occurred at the 460 level. We’ll just have to see how this P&F chart develops.
As for the normal indicators, the intermediate term remains unchanged. The Index remains above its positive sloping moving average line and the momentum indicator remains in its negative zone. The momentum also remains below its negative trigger line. Although today’s volume was relatively large on the down side the volume indicator remains above its positive trigger line. All in all, the intermediate term rating remains at + NEUTRAL, just a step below a full bullish rating.
On the short term the only change is the momentum indicator dropping below its neutral line confirming the bearish rating of the other day. The Index remains below its negative sloping moving average line and the momentum indicator remains below its negative trigger line. The daily volume has moved sharply above its 15 day average volume, and this on the down side. This increase in volume may be blamed on the huge increase in the volume of Cameco and Denison although Paladin volume also increased and on the up side but the big increase was Cameco. All in all, the short term rating remains BEARISH.
As for the immediate direction of least resistance, this is a recording, that would be in the lateral direction - still.
Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data
Open: 138.11
High: 141.98
Low: 134.09
Close: 137.33
Volume: 7066
Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 5 0 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.
Another ho-hum day but this time slightly on the down side. The Daily Index was lower but the broader market (market breadth) was positive. We’re still not going anywhere except in a lateral direction. Frustrating!
The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed lower today by 1.10 points or 0.79%. Despite the decline there were more winners than losers. 28 stocks were winners, 16 losers and 6 going nowhere. As for the five largest stocks they were mixed. Cameco lost 7.6%, Paladin gained 5.9%. Uranium One gained 5.4%, Uranium Participation gained 0.2% and USEC lost 0.7%. The best winner on the day was Strateco with a gain of 18.6% while the loser of the day was Formation Capital with a loss of 10.5%.
The chart today is an intermediate term point and figure (P&F) chart. This chart still does not have us in a bull market. My criteria for a trend reversal is that the action moves above two previous highs (which it has) AND has breached above its down trend line (which it has not). The reverse is true for a reversal to the bear side, which last occurred at the 460 level. We’ll just have to see how this P&F chart develops.
As for the normal indicators, the intermediate term remains unchanged. The Index remains above its positive sloping moving average line and the momentum indicator remains in its negative zone. The momentum also remains below its negative trigger line. Although today’s volume was relatively large on the down side the volume indicator remains above its positive trigger line. All in all, the intermediate term rating remains at + NEUTRAL, just a step below a full bullish rating.
On the short term the only change is the momentum indicator dropping below its neutral line confirming the bearish rating of the other day. The Index remains below its negative sloping moving average line and the momentum indicator remains below its negative trigger line. The daily volume has moved sharply above its 15 day average volume, and this on the down side. This increase in volume may be blamed on the huge increase in the volume of Cameco and Denison although Paladin volume also increased and on the up side but the big increase was Cameco. All in all, the short term rating remains BEARISH.
As for the immediate direction of least resistance, this is a recording, that would be in the lateral direction - still.
3 comments:
As you noted, Cameco really got slammed today, perhaps mostly because investors felt blind-sided by Cameco mgmt announcing the new dilution at 10% under current price, a day after saying nothing about it during the conference call.
So heavy negative vol on Cameco may be distorting the index.
Merv,
That brings up a question. Is your index weighted? Are some of the component stocks "heavier"?
Brian,
As noted on the front page, my Indices are two fold.
The Daily Index is calculated similar to the method used to calculate the Dow Industrial Average. It is therefor "weighted" or slanted towards the stocks with the highest daily dollar moves. This may be seen as favoring the larger priced stocks which may make bigger dollar moves but not necessarily larger percentage moves.
The Weekly Index with the same identical component stocks is not weighted. It is based upon the AVERAGE weekly performance of all stocks. Since it averages the weekly performance it may be seen as favoring the low priced "penny" stocks which may make larger percentage moves than do the larger stocks.
No single Index is perfect for all stocks at all times. This is why I have these two separate Indices. As you can see from week to week they may differ at times but over any extended period they seem to end up with similar performances.
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