BASIC NOTES

Uranium Companies

There are very few pure uranium companies. Most companies, especially the small exploration type, are active in more than the uranium industry. This blog makes no attempt to guage the percentage of a companies activity that are related to the finding, mining or processing of uraniun. They all do, however, have some uranium activities (to the best of our review).

Merv's Uranium Indices

I have developed two Uranium Indices. They each have the same component stocks but are calculated using different methodologies. My weekly Index is based upon the average weekly performance of the component stocks. My daily Index is based upon the daily average of the component stocks open, high, low and close prices along with the daily average volume of all component stocks.

Click on the chart or table to enlage the view.



14 January 2009

Merv's Daily Commentary, 14 Jan 2009


After The Close, 14 Jan 2009

Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data

Open: 138.37
High: 140.69
Low: 130.72
Close: 135.40
Volume: 6384

Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 5 0 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.

I think we’ve had enough of this down side/rest/reaction period. It’s time for a turn around. Do I see it in the charts? Not yet but wishing it so just might make it so. After all, so many investors have been “wishing it so” that someone at some point has to get it right.

The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index had another loser day with a loss of 5.18 points or 3.68%. There were only 5 winners, 4 going nowhere and the rest (41) were losers. With a win/loss ratio as bad as that a turn around or strengthening must be somewhere ahead. The five largest stocks were mostly on the down side. Cameco lost 5.0%, Paladin lost 5.0%, Uranium One gained 7.7%, Uranium Participation lost 1.5% and USEC lost 1.5%. The best winner of those 5 was Strathmore Minerals with a gain of 22.2% while the worst loser of the bunch was Western Uranium with a loss of 16.5%.

The Daily Index is still some distance above its positive sloping moving average line but is starting to show some weakness in the momentum. The momentum indicator has been below its neutral line for a few days and is now below its trigger line. The trigger is, however, still pointing upwards. The volume indicator remains above its positive trigger line. Although the momentum is basically negative (except for the trigger slope) the overall intermediate term rating is still BULLISH but could start deteriorating very soon if things don’t perk up soon.

The short term is losing strength. The Daily Index is now just below its short term moving average line although the line still has a positive slope. The momentum indicator, although heading lower fast and remains below its negative trigger line, is still in the positive zone and remains above that up trend line from the Oct low. The daily volume action is not unexpected and not necessarily negative. The short term rating has now changed and is at a – NEUTRAL rating.

Although the very short term indicators are all negative I will stick with my previous lateral direction as the immediate direction of least resistance. The Index is right on top of the support and should hold here.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Well lets see if the technicals work for us in these il-liquid little guys.

Time has proven to me that the broad market will continue to dominate the action in the U's. I dont expect this time to be different.

But with 6 straight broad market down days, maybe we all get a turn together. Strong headwinds in earnings season though.

Good luck all!