BASIC NOTES

Uranium Companies

There are very few pure uranium companies. Most companies, especially the small exploration type, are active in more than the uranium industry. This blog makes no attempt to guage the percentage of a companies activity that are related to the finding, mining or processing of uraniun. They all do, however, have some uranium activities (to the best of our review).

Merv's Uranium Indices

I have developed two Uranium Indices. They each have the same component stocks but are calculated using different methodologies. My weekly Index is based upon the average weekly performance of the component stocks. My daily Index is based upon the daily average of the component stocks open, high, low and close prices along with the daily average volume of all component stocks.

Click on the chart or table to enlage the view.



08 December 2008

Merv's Daily Commentary, 08 Dec 2008


After The Close, 08 Dec 2008

Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data

Open: 109.01
High: 114.40
Low: 105.83
Close: 111.24
Volume: 5210

Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.

About the only thing that is keeping the dream alive is the momentum indicator. Since the start of the box pattern, as the Index has been moving up and down but basically in a lateral drift, the momentum indicator has been moving slowly into higher ground. This suggests that the underlying strength of the Index moves is stronger than the Index might suggest. If this is so than the Index should soon make its move to breach the upper resistance of the box. As usual we should see the indicators perk up first in the short term but with any move towards the resistance the intermediate term indicators would have shown firming and improvement, which we haven’t seem for some time. However, we will still have to wait and see how this continues to develop.

The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed higher today by 5.75 points or 5.45%. Not great for the Uranium Index but we’ll take anything we can get. There were 28 winners on the day, 16 losers and 6 going nowhere. As for the five largest stocks by market value, they had a good day. Cameco gained 9.6%, Denison gained 11.1%, Paladin gained 10.8%, Uranium One gained 3.8%, as the only single digit daily gainer in the group, and USEC gained 10.3%. The best daily winner was Nuinsco with a gain of 33.3% while the worst loser was Trigon Uranium with a loss of 15.8%.

Although the Index was up on the day it still had no effect on the intermediate term indicators. It is, however, just at the point of touching the intermediate term moving average line and may go through any day now for a possible improvement in the rating. For now the rating remains BEARISH.

On the short term things have taken a turn for the better, again. The Index just broke above its moving average line and the line turned back to the up side. During up and down movements within a relatively narrow confine the move of the Index and moving average is to be expected and could change quickly. One really needs a better move to really say what is happening but I still go with my indicators and the combination that gives me the ratings. As for the momentum indicator, it has just inched its way above its neutral line into the positive zone. It is also above its positive trigger line. The short term rating has quickly jumped back into a BULLISH rating.

As for the direction of least resistance, that would now have to be to the up side although looking at a slightly longer period than immediate one must say that the most likely direction remains lateral.

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