After The Close, 19 Nov 2008
Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data
Open: 108.14
High: 110.75
Low: 101.82
Close: 103.17
Volume: 5061
Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.
Well, it seems to be heading towards its previous lows but still has a little ways to go. The Daily Index seems to be well trapped inside that box but we know that sooner or later it will get out of its rut and go into a new move. Let’s get all the negativity out so that only the positives are left to move the stocks. How long that negativity will be with us is the big unknown. It might just be that uranium speculators are taking their cue from the overall markets and we know how that is doing.
The Merv’s Uranium Index closed lower by 5.34 points or 4.92%. There were 6 winners, 36 losers and 8 not knowing which way to go. Of the five biggies, Cameco lost 4.0%, Denison lost 5.2%, Paladin lost 13.4%, Uranium One lost 14.0% and USEC lost 7.7%. The best winner was Vena Resources with a gain of 14.3% while the worst loser was Strathmore Minerals with a loss of 26.7%.
The intermediate term remains basically unchanged. The Index remains below its negative moving average line and the average has now decisively entered that box area. The momentum indicator remains in its negative zone below a now negative sloping trigger line. It does still remain above its up trend line but that could change with another day of negative action. The volume indicator is also moving lower below its negative trigger line. From all this the only rating at this time is a BEARISH rating for the intermediate term.
On the short term everything is almost the same. The Index is below its negative sloping moving average line and the momentum indicator is in its negative zone below its negative trigger line. Here, the indicator has now moved below its previous up trend line. The volume indicator remains below its short term trigger line. Here too BEARISH is the only rating possible for the short term.
As for the immediate direction of least resistance, that must remain downwards. The Index remains below its very short term negative moving average line and the Stochastic Oscillator remains just below its neutral line. With the Index closing at just about its low for the day this has caused the SO to start a turn around and another day it will be pointing downward.
My previous recommendation to just relax and sit this market out, with a beer and watching those reality TV programs continues. However, maybe it’s getting time for something stronger than a beer, especially for those who are still holding stock. As for reality TV, well how much more reality can one get than by watching the business channel all day?
Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data
Open: 108.14
High: 110.75
Low: 101.82
Close: 103.17
Volume: 5061
Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.
Well, it seems to be heading towards its previous lows but still has a little ways to go. The Daily Index seems to be well trapped inside that box but we know that sooner or later it will get out of its rut and go into a new move. Let’s get all the negativity out so that only the positives are left to move the stocks. How long that negativity will be with us is the big unknown. It might just be that uranium speculators are taking their cue from the overall markets and we know how that is doing.
The Merv’s Uranium Index closed lower by 5.34 points or 4.92%. There were 6 winners, 36 losers and 8 not knowing which way to go. Of the five biggies, Cameco lost 4.0%, Denison lost 5.2%, Paladin lost 13.4%, Uranium One lost 14.0% and USEC lost 7.7%. The best winner was Vena Resources with a gain of 14.3% while the worst loser was Strathmore Minerals with a loss of 26.7%.
The intermediate term remains basically unchanged. The Index remains below its negative moving average line and the average has now decisively entered that box area. The momentum indicator remains in its negative zone below a now negative sloping trigger line. It does still remain above its up trend line but that could change with another day of negative action. The volume indicator is also moving lower below its negative trigger line. From all this the only rating at this time is a BEARISH rating for the intermediate term.
On the short term everything is almost the same. The Index is below its negative sloping moving average line and the momentum indicator is in its negative zone below its negative trigger line. Here, the indicator has now moved below its previous up trend line. The volume indicator remains below its short term trigger line. Here too BEARISH is the only rating possible for the short term.
As for the immediate direction of least resistance, that must remain downwards. The Index remains below its very short term negative moving average line and the Stochastic Oscillator remains just below its neutral line. With the Index closing at just about its low for the day this has caused the SO to start a turn around and another day it will be pointing downward.
My previous recommendation to just relax and sit this market out, with a beer and watching those reality TV programs continues. However, maybe it’s getting time for something stronger than a beer, especially for those who are still holding stock. As for reality TV, well how much more reality can one get than by watching the business channel all day?
4 comments:
I'm new to your commentary - very interesting. Can yo tell me what you mean by short, intermediate and long term?
Thanks.
Hey just saying thanks again for this work.
One of these days, we'll be out of the box, and I hope in a good way.
We shall see.
Too long; didn't read.
First Anonymous
The time periods define the historical period over which my indicators were based upon and in general are similar to individuals investment period consideration. Short term refers to about 15 days. Intermediate term refers to about 50 days and long term refers to about 200 days. NOTHING is precise so for different indicators the day period used may vary somewhat from the above.
Also, the indicators often change direction over a period of a few days so ratings can change from one day to the next, the shorter the period the more often the ratings can cahange. Just because the indicators may suggest a BEARISH rating for the intermediate term today DOES NOT mean that I expect the intermediate term to be bearish for the next 50 days, the rating could quickly change the following week.
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