After The Close, 16 Oct 2008
Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data
Open: 106.51
Hugh: 111.69
Low: 94.75
Close: 105.50
Volume: 6336
Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.
Although the Daily Index closed on the down side for another day the decline was so minor as to almost be a winner day. As we see on the chart the Index seems to be in another of those “box” patterns. Which way it will break should give us a hint of its future direction, at least for the short term. My view is that it will break on the up side but let’s see what the indicators are telling us.
First, the daily action. The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed lower by 0.51 points or 0.48%. There were 13 winners, 33 losers and 4 going nowhere. The winners and losers seem out of proportion to the Index decline but that’s the way it is. Of the five largest stocks they were all over the place. Cameco gained 4.0%, Denison lost 5.1%, Paladin lost 6.6%, Uranium One went nowhere and USEC gained 12.2%. The best winner on the day was Western Prospector with a gain of 40.4% while the loser of the day was CanAlaska Ventures with a loss of 25.0%.
Looking at the intermediate term indicators it will still be some time before they turn around. For now the Index remains below its intermediate term negative sloping moving average line. The intermediate term momentum indicator remains in its negative zone above its negative trigger line. Unlike the boxed in Index, the volume indicator continues to make new daily lows, below its negative intermediate term trigger line. The intermediate term can only be rated as BEARISH.
The short term is little different. The Index remains below its negative sloping moving average line but should the Index break the box on the up side it would turn the moving average along with it. The momentum indicator remains in its negative zone (and inside its oversold zone) but above its positive trigger line. As with the intermediate term the volume indicator remains below its short term trigger line. Here too the only rating I can give the short term is BEARISH.
The immediate direction of least resistance is getting interesting. Despite the Index ups and downs the Stochastic Oscillator has been moving steadily higher for over a week now. The Index closed just below its negative sloping very short term moving average line. However, it does look like most of the daily action, especially towards the second half of the day, was towards the up side and so I will go with the direction of least resistance now going over to the up side. For anything significant to happen the Index will have to first get out of the box.
Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data
Open: 106.51
Hugh: 111.69
Low: 94.75
Close: 105.50
Volume: 6336
Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.
Although the Daily Index closed on the down side for another day the decline was so minor as to almost be a winner day. As we see on the chart the Index seems to be in another of those “box” patterns. Which way it will break should give us a hint of its future direction, at least for the short term. My view is that it will break on the up side but let’s see what the indicators are telling us.
First, the daily action. The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed lower by 0.51 points or 0.48%. There were 13 winners, 33 losers and 4 going nowhere. The winners and losers seem out of proportion to the Index decline but that’s the way it is. Of the five largest stocks they were all over the place. Cameco gained 4.0%, Denison lost 5.1%, Paladin lost 6.6%, Uranium One went nowhere and USEC gained 12.2%. The best winner on the day was Western Prospector with a gain of 40.4% while the loser of the day was CanAlaska Ventures with a loss of 25.0%.
Looking at the intermediate term indicators it will still be some time before they turn around. For now the Index remains below its intermediate term negative sloping moving average line. The intermediate term momentum indicator remains in its negative zone above its negative trigger line. Unlike the boxed in Index, the volume indicator continues to make new daily lows, below its negative intermediate term trigger line. The intermediate term can only be rated as BEARISH.
The short term is little different. The Index remains below its negative sloping moving average line but should the Index break the box on the up side it would turn the moving average along with it. The momentum indicator remains in its negative zone (and inside its oversold zone) but above its positive trigger line. As with the intermediate term the volume indicator remains below its short term trigger line. Here too the only rating I can give the short term is BEARISH.
The immediate direction of least resistance is getting interesting. Despite the Index ups and downs the Stochastic Oscillator has been moving steadily higher for over a week now. The Index closed just below its negative sloping very short term moving average line. However, it does look like most of the daily action, especially towards the second half of the day, was towards the up side and so I will go with the direction of least resistance now going over to the up side. For anything significant to happen the Index will have to first get out of the box.
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