After The Close, 07 Oct 2008
Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data
Open: 123.92
Hugh: 127.40
Low: 109.46
Close: 112.40
Volume: 6012
Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.
What is there to say? Another day and another bummer. Although bad on a daily % basis it does not look all that bad on the chart. The low for the day barely breached below yesterday’s low, which is always encouraging. It just might suggest a brake being put on the down side. That’s mostly wishing so let’s not jump to any conclusions and wait for tomorrow’s action.
The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed lower by 8.65 points or 7.15%. There was only one daily winner, 45 daily losers and 4 going nowhere. Of the five largest stocks by market value, as could be expected they were all losers, or to put another way none was the lone daily winner. Cameco lost 6.6%, Denison lost 9.7%, Paladin lost 11.3%, Uranium One lost 20.4% and USEC lost 6.3%. So far it’s shaping up like another bad nightmare of a week. The lone winner, Uranium Participation, was up 6.4% while the largest loser, Azimut Exploration, was down 32.7%.
On the intermediate term the Index just keeps getting further and further away from the intermediate term moving average line. The moving average continues to point downward, big surprise. The momentum indicator remains in its negative zone below its negative trigger line. It is just a touch above its oversold line and another negative day will see it entering that zone. The volume indicator continues to move lower and is now at new low levels, below its trigger line. The momentum indicator has also moved into new lows confirming the move by the Index. The rating can only be BEARISH on the intermediate term.
The Index continues on its downward trend below its negative sloping short term moving average line. The very short term moving average line continues to confirm the bearish trend by remaining below the short term line. The short term momentum indicator has moved below its mid-September lows confirming the short term Index move. It remains in its negative zone below its negative trigger line. It is also well inside its oversold line so we can now wait for it to reverse back above the oversold line for a short term trend reversal warning. The daily volume action, unfortunately, is suggesting at this time that the speculators are getting out more than they are getting in. We need it the other way around. On the short term the rating remains BEARISH.
As for the immediate direction of least resistance, that has to remain to the down side although there is just a minor hint of going lateral.
Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data
Open: 123.92
Hugh: 127.40
Low: 109.46
Close: 112.40
Volume: 6012
Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.
What is there to say? Another day and another bummer. Although bad on a daily % basis it does not look all that bad on the chart. The low for the day barely breached below yesterday’s low, which is always encouraging. It just might suggest a brake being put on the down side. That’s mostly wishing so let’s not jump to any conclusions and wait for tomorrow’s action.
The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed lower by 8.65 points or 7.15%. There was only one daily winner, 45 daily losers and 4 going nowhere. Of the five largest stocks by market value, as could be expected they were all losers, or to put another way none was the lone daily winner. Cameco lost 6.6%, Denison lost 9.7%, Paladin lost 11.3%, Uranium One lost 20.4% and USEC lost 6.3%. So far it’s shaping up like another bad nightmare of a week. The lone winner, Uranium Participation, was up 6.4% while the largest loser, Azimut Exploration, was down 32.7%.
On the intermediate term the Index just keeps getting further and further away from the intermediate term moving average line. The moving average continues to point downward, big surprise. The momentum indicator remains in its negative zone below its negative trigger line. It is just a touch above its oversold line and another negative day will see it entering that zone. The volume indicator continues to move lower and is now at new low levels, below its trigger line. The momentum indicator has also moved into new lows confirming the move by the Index. The rating can only be BEARISH on the intermediate term.
The Index continues on its downward trend below its negative sloping short term moving average line. The very short term moving average line continues to confirm the bearish trend by remaining below the short term line. The short term momentum indicator has moved below its mid-September lows confirming the short term Index move. It remains in its negative zone below its negative trigger line. It is also well inside its oversold line so we can now wait for it to reverse back above the oversold line for a short term trend reversal warning. The daily volume action, unfortunately, is suggesting at this time that the speculators are getting out more than they are getting in. We need it the other way around. On the short term the rating remains BEARISH.
As for the immediate direction of least resistance, that has to remain to the down side although there is just a minor hint of going lateral.
2 comments:
Merv,
Is this decline mostly the result of panic selling from over-leveraged hedge funds, or has the actual physical market for Uranium dried up as of late?
A technician does not worry WHY something is happening. He is ONLY concerned that it is happening and he stays out of the way in a down market or gets in on the action early in a bull market. Trying to understand WHY can just be too darn frustrating.
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