Merv’s Weekly Uranium Review
for week ending 26 September 2008
Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data for Friday 26 Sep 2008
Open: 175.96
Hugh: 179.67
Low: 167.48
Close: 171.10
Volume: 3359
Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.
Another losing week but not as bad as usual. Despite another sharp drop in the price of uranium the Weekly Index declined only a little. It makes one almost expect that another rally may be just around the corner. What would be encouraging from the long term standpoint would be to see the momentum indicator firm up and start moving upward. This would tell us that the downside action is getting weaker and weaker. So far that has not happened.
Friday’s action was discouraging as I had been hoping for a continuation of the rally of the previous week. That was not to be. The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed lower by 9.17 points or 5.08%. There were almost four times as many losers as winners. The winners numbered 10, the losers numbered 37 and those that did not number were 3. As for the five largest stocks, they were all losers. Cameco lost 8.6%, Denison lost 5.1%, First Uranium lost 8.1%, Paladin lost 4.1% and Uranium Participation lost 5.3%. The best performer on the day was Western Uranium with a gain of 6.9% while the worst performer was Uranium 308 with a loss of 21.4%.
As for the week as a whole, the Merv’s Weekly Uranium Index lost 92.6 points or 2.32%. There were 19 weekly winners, 29 weekly losers and 2 at a stand still. As for the five largest stocks, Cameco lost 6.3% on the week, Denison lost 14.8%, First Uranium lost 20.5%, Paladin lost 8.8% and Uranium Participation lost 16.2%. The best winner on the week was Kodiak Exploration with a gain of 62.2% while the worst loser on the week was JNR Resources with a loss of 26.7%.
Looking at the long term charts and indicators nothing has basically changed in almost a year. The Weekly Index remains below its negatively sloping moving average line and the long term momentum indicator remains in its negative zone below its negative trigger line. Nothing here to change my long term rating. It remains BEARISH.
The intermediate term prognosis hasn’t changed for a few months either. The Daily Index remains below its negative sloping moving average line and the momentum indicator remains in its negative zone, just a touch above its positive trigger line. The volume indicator had moved slightly above its trigger line but is once more below the negative sloping trigger. On the intermediate term the prognosis remains at a rating of BEARISH.
Short term we were starting to get improvement to the point of going bullish on Thursday night. Unfortunately, that just didn’t last. The Index dropped below its short term moving average line and the line turned downwards. The momentum indicator remains in its negative zone and has once more moved below its trigger line, although the trigger is still pointing upwards. As for the volume indicator, it has dropped below its trigger line but the line remains positive. Despite the few small positives the combination of indicators has once more turned the short term rating into a BEARISH rating. So much for the one day bullish rating.
As for the direction of least resistance, that must now be considered to the down side. The Index is below its very short term moving average line and the line has turned downward. Although the Stochastic Oscillator is still very slightly inside its positive zone it is heading lower pretty fast and is well below its negative trigger line. Nothing here of encouragement.
This is a recording. Relax, have a final summer barbeque, have a couple of beers, go to a ball game. Don’t worry about the stocks until a turn around has been verified.
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