Merv's Week-End Commentary, 07 Sep 2008

Merv’s Weekly Uranium Review
for week ending 05 September 2008

Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data for Friday 05 Sep 2008

Open: 202.44
Hugh: 205.57
Low: 192.90
Close: 200.82
Volume: 4278

Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.

This is getting monotonous. Another day and another downer. Friday was a bummer and the full week was a bummer. However, there is a possible bright spot ahead, Friday’s action looks very much like a one day reversal action. More on this below. For now let’s go through our normal week-end routine.

Friday was a down day with the Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closing lower by 2.51 points or 1.23%. There were 12 winners (better than yesterday but not much better), 33 losers and 5 that are going nowhere. Of the five largest stocks by market value, Cameco lost 0.9%, Denison lost 3.9%, First Uranium lost 2.1%, Paladin lost 0.9% and Uranium Participation gained 1.3%. The best daily performer was Strateco with a gain og 8.8% while the worst daily performer was Xemplar Energy with a loss of 14.9%.

As for the weekly action, the Merv’s Weekly Uranium Index was down 563.98 points or 10.55% on the week (ouch!). There were actually 4 weekly winners but 45 weekly losers. One stock wasn’t sure which way it wanted to go. As for the five largest stocks, Cameco lost 10.7% on the week, Denison lost 17.0%, First Uranium lost 22.0%, Paladin lost 16.5% and Uranium Participation lost only 0.6%. The best performer of the four winners was Uranium Resources with a gain of 17.0% (take-over target ?) while the worst weekly performer was Xemplar Energy with a loss of 23.1%, one of five stocks in the 20%+ loss category.

Going to the weekly chart for our long term prognosis, there is nothing on that chart that would give us any great encouragement that the end of the slide is near. Of course, from the long term stand point we would not see anything clearly until the short and intermediate term had gone through some sort of reversal process. For today, the Weekly Index remains below its negative sloping moving average line and the momentum indicator remains in its negative zone. The long term rating remains locked in the BEARISH mode.

Now to the daily chart for our intermediate term view of the market. Doom and gloom continue. The Daily Index remains below its negative sloping moving average line and the intermediate term momentum indicator remains in its negative zone. The indicator is pointing downward and is below its negative trigger line. The volume indicator has once more dropped below its negative trigger line. All the indicators tell us that the intermediate term rating can only be BEARISH.

On the short term things are just as bleak. The Index is below its short term negative sloping moving average line while the momentum indicator remains below its neutral line and below its negative trigger line. The short term rating remains BEARISH. This is further confirmed with the very short term moving average line having crossed the short term one to the down side.

In Candlestick speak that Friday candlestick is called a “long lower shadow”. It is considered a bullish action and suggests more upside ahead. Let’s see if Monday’s action proves the point.

Keep relaxing, having a good beer and waiting for the right time to jump back into the uranium stocks. THIS IS NOT YET IT.

Gold Stocks

For those interested in gold stocks I expect to be posting on this blog my table of the top 100 gold and silver stocks traded on the North American markets. I have had many requests for this table and I thought the simplest way would be to post it on this blog, which I have easy access to. The table should be posted later today, most likely late in the evening.