After The Close, 08 Sept 2008
Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data
Open: 206.05
Hugh: 209.48
Low: 191.94
Close: 195.37
Volume: 3785
Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.
Another day, another bummer. That’s five in a row. At about this point an analyst can close his eyes and predict an up day ahead and the odds would be that he would be right. It’s a rare occurrence having more than five down days in a row. How long such up action will go on is anyone’s guess, maybe a day, maybe a week. Another reason to expect a bounce from around here is the fact that the Index has declined to within 1.94 points of my long held projection of 190. No one expects absolute perfection and 1.94 points is close enough for me (although getting 190.00 would be nice, projection wise).
The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed lower today by 5.45 points or 2.71%. There were 10 winners on the day and 36 losers. Four stocks went nowhere. Of the five largest stocks by market value Cameco lost 4.3%, Denison lost 4.4%, First Uranium lost 6.5%, Paladin gained 2.7% and Uranium Participation gained 1.4%. The best performer on the day was Powertech Uranium with a gain of 7.7% while the worst performer was Fission Energy with a loss of 14.0%.
As the chart shows, nothing much has changed on the intermediate term. The Index is still trading below its negative moving average line and the momentum indicator remains in its negative zone below its negative trigger line. Not shown but the volume indicator continues to move lower below its negative trigger line. About the only positive at this time is the fact that the momentum has not yet made new lows to confirm the Index. Should the Index turn around before the momentum moves into new lows that would give us a positive divergence, the strength of which would depend upon when that happened. All in all, the intermediate term rating remains BEARISH.
The short term indicators continue to lose ground. The Index remains below its negative moving average line and the momentum indicator remains in its negative zone below its negative trigger line. The momentum has actually just crossed below its oversold line and into the oversold zone. Rallies are started from here but it could still go lower. The short term is still rated as BEARISH.
As for the immediate direction, well as one can imagine that would be to the down side. The “long lower shadow” mentioned on the week-end just didn’t pan out (maybe it was a day early). The Index is well below its very short term moving average line and the Stochastic Oscillator is in its negative zone. In fact it has entered its oversold zone and is at its lowest level since mid-March.
Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data
Open: 206.05
Hugh: 209.48
Low: 191.94
Close: 195.37
Volume: 3785
Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.
Another day, another bummer. That’s five in a row. At about this point an analyst can close his eyes and predict an up day ahead and the odds would be that he would be right. It’s a rare occurrence having more than five down days in a row. How long such up action will go on is anyone’s guess, maybe a day, maybe a week. Another reason to expect a bounce from around here is the fact that the Index has declined to within 1.94 points of my long held projection of 190. No one expects absolute perfection and 1.94 points is close enough for me (although getting 190.00 would be nice, projection wise).
The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed lower today by 5.45 points or 2.71%. There were 10 winners on the day and 36 losers. Four stocks went nowhere. Of the five largest stocks by market value Cameco lost 4.3%, Denison lost 4.4%, First Uranium lost 6.5%, Paladin gained 2.7% and Uranium Participation gained 1.4%. The best performer on the day was Powertech Uranium with a gain of 7.7% while the worst performer was Fission Energy with a loss of 14.0%.
As the chart shows, nothing much has changed on the intermediate term. The Index is still trading below its negative moving average line and the momentum indicator remains in its negative zone below its negative trigger line. Not shown but the volume indicator continues to move lower below its negative trigger line. About the only positive at this time is the fact that the momentum has not yet made new lows to confirm the Index. Should the Index turn around before the momentum moves into new lows that would give us a positive divergence, the strength of which would depend upon when that happened. All in all, the intermediate term rating remains BEARISH.
The short term indicators continue to lose ground. The Index remains below its negative moving average line and the momentum indicator remains in its negative zone below its negative trigger line. The momentum has actually just crossed below its oversold line and into the oversold zone. Rallies are started from here but it could still go lower. The short term is still rated as BEARISH.
As for the immediate direction, well as one can imagine that would be to the down side. The “long lower shadow” mentioned on the week-end just didn’t pan out (maybe it was a day early). The Index is well below its very short term moving average line and the Stochastic Oscillator is in its negative zone. In fact it has entered its oversold zone and is at its lowest level since mid-March.
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