Merv's Daily Commentary, 03 Sept 2008

After The Close, 03 Sept 2008

Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data

Open: 215.25
Hugh: 219.99
Low: 205.42
Close: 211.19
Volume: 5506

Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.

Another downer of a day. We’re getting close to the lower support of that new “box”. Will it hold? Well, many, many, many months ago my P&F chart gave a projection to the 190 level. At the time it looked too far away but here we are, closing in. That’s not so far from here but would break the box. My ego is routing for the P&F projection to be met. After that we can once more wish for a new bull. Of course if a new bull starts from here, well it was close enough for bragging rights. Should the Index move towards that projection I will need to have a new look at the P&F to see if there are any (reasonable) lower projections but I don’t recall any.

The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed lower by 4.50 points or 2.08%. There were only 11 winners today, but 34 losers. Five were unchanged. All five of the largest stocks by market value were losers. Cameco lost 0.7%, Denison lost 5.8%, First Uranium lost 10.2%, Paladin lost 4.9% and Uranium Participation lost 0.6%. The best performer on the day was Uranium Resources with a gain of 46.8%, does anyone hear take-over. The worst performer was Uranium Energy with a loss of 12.1%.

The only new activity in the intermediate term is the movement of the momentum indicator below its trigger line although the trigger is still very slightly positive. The momentum itself remains in its negative zone. The Index remains below its negative moving average line where it has been for some time. The volume indicator is still very slightly above its trigger line and the trigger is once more positive. Despite the volume indicator, which is heading towards the negative, he intermediate term rating remains BEARISH.

On the short term everything is back in the negative camp. The Index is below its negative sloping moving average line and the momentum indicator remains in its negative zone below its negative trigger line. We now await the Index move to the bottom of the box to see if it holds. For now the short term rating has once more dropped to the BEARISH rating.

As for the immediate direction of least resistance, well that is to the down side with the Index below its very short term negative moving average line and the Stochastic Oscillator (SO) moving into its negative zone below its negative trigger line.

Unless things get more negative we might be seeing some whip-saw action in the Index in days ahead, but these are almost next to impossible to really predict. One should be aware of the possibility in any case.

Readers might have noticed that there has been a decided lack of individual stock reviews over the past some months. Well, there has really not been any real market environment to provide new stock reviews and potentials. The time will come and I will have stocks to review but for now just keep relaxing, take those beers and watch the Political Conventions.