Merv’s Weekly Uranium Review
for week ending 29 August 2008
Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data for Friday 29 Aug 2008
Open: 222.99
Hugh: 227.62
Low: 218.33
Close: 224.57
Volume: 4326
Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.
Looking at the two charts one can see that we still have a long way to go to turn around from the long term perspective. The daily chart does have us in a turn around phase but this is from a short term perspective and anything can happen from that perspective. I just go with the flow, wherever that takes me.
The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed on Friday with another upside close. It was up 2.78 points or 1.25% on the day. There were 27 daily winners, 18 daily losers and 5 daily do nothings. As for the five largest stocks, they were mostly up except for Cameco. Cameco closed lower by 0.2%, Denison closed higher by 0.2%, First Uranium closed higher by 0.9%, Paladin closed higher by 3.7% and Uranium Participation closed higher by 3.5%. The best daily mover was Mega Uranium with a gain of 11.6% while the worst daily mover was Powertech Uranium with a loss of 10.7%.
For the week, the Merv’s Weekly Uranium Index closed at 5344.76, ahead 208.40 points or 4.06%. On the week there were 25 winners, 22 losers and 3 unchanged. In the top five stocks, Cameco closed the week up 3.2%, Denison closed down 0.2%, First Uranium closed down 8.3%, Paladin closed ahead 6.9% and Uranium Participation closedown by 0.8%. The best weekly mover was Mega Uranium with a weekly gain of 44.2% while the worst weekly mover was Rockgate Capital with a loss of 22.2%.
Looking at the long term first, it’s the same old, same old. The Weekly Index continues below its long term moving average line and the line slope continues downward. The long term momentum indicator remains in its negative zone although it has moved above its positive sloping trigger line. The direction of the momentum may now be to the up side but much has yet to be done to get it into the positive. The long term rating remains BEARISH.
On the intermediate term both the Index and momentum indicators are improving but still have some ways to go before they become positive. The Daily Index remains below its negative moving average line and the momentum indicator remains in its negative zone. Momentum is above its positive trigger line so the direction is good but again, still some distance before turning positive. The volume indicator has also turned upwards and has crossed above its trigger line, however the line slope remains downward. All in all, the intermediate term must still be classified as BEARISH.
Things are better on the short term. This is where the action turns direction first. On the daily chart one can easily see that slow and gradual saucer like turn around occurring, both in the Index and momentum indicator. The indicator is showing greater internal strength than one gets from the Index action as it is way ahead of the Index and is at its level from two months back. This would suggest that at least from the short term perspective we still have a little more upside left in this move. As mentioned the other day, the very short term moving average line has crossed above the short term line for a confirmation of the short term rally. The short term is rated as BULLISH with all this but there still is a resistance that one would like to see breached, and soon. That is the 229 level.
As for the immediate direction of least resistance, that would continue to be the up side. The Stochastic Oscillator continues to move higher inside its positive zone and the very short term moving average line continues to point upwards.
Things are looking brighter but we have been here before. If one is inclined to try and get in on the action ahead of trend changes one should have close stop loss points to limit losses just in case things turn around unexpectedly.
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