Merv’s Weekly Uranium Review
for week ending 22 August 2008
Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data for Friday 22 Aug 2008
Open: 217.43
Hugh: 221.35
Low: 211.48
Close: 215.76
Volume: 2412
Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.
Finally, after 7 consecutive weeks of down markets we finally get a week on the up side, small but still on the up. That’s 14 weeks with only the second minor little upside action. It was about time. A technician doesn’t worry about what’s driving the market (although it would be interesting to know just for an education), a technician only goes with the direction the market takes him and accepts the market’s knowledge. This is why I say on the web site that technical analysis tells you what IS happening while fundamental analysis tells you what SHOULD happen. Now, a technician is often wrong (the market action throws him a curve or he just misunderstood the market’s message) but he corrects himself quickly.
The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed on Friday with a down day but a weak downer. It was more like a holding day after the sharp rise on Thursday. The Index closed down 2.93 points or 1.34%. There were 18 winners on the day, 27 losers and 5 going nowhere. Of the top 5 stocks by market value, Cameco lost 2.4%, Denison lost 2.9%, First Uranium was unchanged, Paladin lost 1.0% and Uranium Participation gained 0.4%. The best daily performer was JNR Resources with a gain of 11.1% while the worst daily performer was Fission Energy with a loss of 16.4%.
For the week the Merv’s Weekly Uranium Index closed higher by 70.34 points or 1.39%. a Minor gain but we’ll take anything we get. There were 24 weekly winners, 20 losers and 6 unchanged. Of the top 5 stocks Cameco gained 1.4%, Denison gained 6.2%, First Uranium gained 1.9%, Paladin gained 2.9% and Uranium Participation was unchanged. The best weekly performer was Khan Resources with a gain of 22.9% while the worst performer was Uranium Energy with a loss of 12.5%.
A small gain such as this week’s does not affect the long term charts or indicators, so, where we were last week (actually two weeks ago as I missed last week) we still are. The weekly chart very clearly shows us the long term situation in the uranium stocks --- disaster ---. As a general observation, anyone who “invested” in uranium stocks over the past two and a half years, AND HELD, is not making any money, in fact they might be deep in the losers column. Why, oh why would anyone be holding on for dear life when stocks turn around. Everyone should understand that stock prices, any stock prices, do not go in one direction forever. There DOES come a time to get the heck out, hold on to your cash, have a beer and relax. Yes, the charts and indicators sometimes throw you a curve but they quickly correct themselves resulting in a minor loss of capital or a minor loss of potential profit, call it an insurance premium. That is, however, far preferable than holding and finding out that the prices actually do slide into a hole.
Where was I before getting distracted? Oh yes, The Weekly Uranium Index continues to trade below its long term moving average line and the line continues to point lower. The momentum indicator is deep (for a weekly indicator) inside negative territory and below its negative trigger line (not shown on the chart). As for the long term rating, that remains BEARISH.
On the intermediate term we are still where we were on Thursday. The Daily Index closed below its still negative moving average line while the momentum indicator remains in its negative zone. The momentum is improving and is an encouraging sign but much still has to happen before it actually turns positive. It’s heading in that direction being above its now positive trigger line so the direction is encouraging but the location is still in the negative. As for the volume indicator, it is still moving lower below its negative trigger line. All in all, the intermediate term rating remains BEARISH.
On the short term things happen here first. Here, we are still in somewhat of a positive mood although not yet fully. The Index remains above its still negative sloping moving average line (15 DMAw) while the momentum indicator continues to move above its positive sloping trigger line, although it is still in its negative zone. Of continuing importance is the fact that the Index remains above that upper resistance (now a support) line from the previous channel. Also of importance is the fact that the short term moving average line remains above the very short term line continuing to suggest that the turn around one can see in the immediate term has not yet been fully confirmed for the short term. The daily volume action is also not all that great. Putting it all together, the short term rating remains at a + NEUTRAL rating, just shy of a full bull.
As for what the immediate direction of least resistance, I would once more go with the lateral direction although it still looks good for the up side. We have the Index above its very short term positive moving average line and the aggressive Stochastic Oscillator continues to move higher inside its positive zone.
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