After The Close, 28 Aug 2008
Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data
Open: 222.34
High: 227.15
Low: 216.51
Close: 221.79
Volume: 5003
Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.
Well, the rally continues. Now let’s see if it continues long enough to change the intermediate and long term ratings. That time has not yet come although the short term is on a roll. There is only one level left to make one more comfortable about this short term rally, and that is the highs from two weeks ago. Once the Index closes above the 229 level one can then be a little more at ease with the rally (but never assume it will not end, surprises are always happening).
The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed higher by 2.20 points or 1.00%. There were 23 winners, 22 losers and 5 doing nothing. As for the five largest stocks by market value, Cameco gained 0.9%, Denison lost 2.9%, First Uranium lost 0.6%, Paladin gained 2.8% and Uranium Participation lost 0.1%. The best daily performer was Western Uranium with a gain of 18.8% while the worst daily performer was Fission Energy with a loss of 20.0% wiping out its full yesterday’s gain.
The intermediate term charts and indicators are closing in on their positive zones but still have some more to go. The Index is moving higher towards its moving average line but is still below the line, which is sloping downwards. The momentum indicator is heading upwards towards its neutral line but remains inside its negative zone. It is, however, above its positive sloping trigger line indicating the positive direction of the indicator. The volume indicator has turned upwards and has just crossed above its trigger line but the trigger is still pointing downward. The intermediate term must still be classified as BEARISH for the present time.
The short term is ahead of the rest. It went bullish the other day and remains so although it could use another day or so of upside to really cover all bases. The Index is above its short term moving average line and the line is sloping upwards. The momentum indicator is moving sharply higher above its positive sloping trigger line but is still just below its neutral line in the negative zone. The daily volume action is slowly improving as the Index moves higher. With so many positives, the one negative (momentum in the negative zone) is given a pass by my secret formula. The short term rating remains BULLISH. The very short term moving average line has just crossed above the short term one for confirmation of this rating.
As for the immediate term direction of least resistance, that would remain the up side. The Index remains above its very short term positive sloping moving average line and the aggressive Stochastic Oscillator remains in its positive zone and is once more above its positive trigger line. What more would a person want?
Although things are looking brighter we’ve been there before. As a somewhat more cautious speculator I like to have the market activity confirmed by the intermediate term indicators. Of course, before the overall Index and market indicators turn around there are bound to be individual stocks that are leading the parade. Speculators might get in on those leaders but should be very quick to get out if things should sour. Stay with the winners but take small losses from the losers. Do not hang on expecting the market to know you are in and expect the market to confirm your judgment.
Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data
Open: 222.34
High: 227.15
Low: 216.51
Close: 221.79
Volume: 5003
Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.
Well, the rally continues. Now let’s see if it continues long enough to change the intermediate and long term ratings. That time has not yet come although the short term is on a roll. There is only one level left to make one more comfortable about this short term rally, and that is the highs from two weeks ago. Once the Index closes above the 229 level one can then be a little more at ease with the rally (but never assume it will not end, surprises are always happening).
The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed higher by 2.20 points or 1.00%. There were 23 winners, 22 losers and 5 doing nothing. As for the five largest stocks by market value, Cameco gained 0.9%, Denison lost 2.9%, First Uranium lost 0.6%, Paladin gained 2.8% and Uranium Participation lost 0.1%. The best daily performer was Western Uranium with a gain of 18.8% while the worst daily performer was Fission Energy with a loss of 20.0% wiping out its full yesterday’s gain.
The intermediate term charts and indicators are closing in on their positive zones but still have some more to go. The Index is moving higher towards its moving average line but is still below the line, which is sloping downwards. The momentum indicator is heading upwards towards its neutral line but remains inside its negative zone. It is, however, above its positive sloping trigger line indicating the positive direction of the indicator. The volume indicator has turned upwards and has just crossed above its trigger line but the trigger is still pointing downward. The intermediate term must still be classified as BEARISH for the present time.
The short term is ahead of the rest. It went bullish the other day and remains so although it could use another day or so of upside to really cover all bases. The Index is above its short term moving average line and the line is sloping upwards. The momentum indicator is moving sharply higher above its positive sloping trigger line but is still just below its neutral line in the negative zone. The daily volume action is slowly improving as the Index moves higher. With so many positives, the one negative (momentum in the negative zone) is given a pass by my secret formula. The short term rating remains BULLISH. The very short term moving average line has just crossed above the short term one for confirmation of this rating.
As for the immediate term direction of least resistance, that would remain the up side. The Index remains above its very short term positive sloping moving average line and the aggressive Stochastic Oscillator remains in its positive zone and is once more above its positive trigger line. What more would a person want?
Although things are looking brighter we’ve been there before. As a somewhat more cautious speculator I like to have the market activity confirmed by the intermediate term indicators. Of course, before the overall Index and market indicators turn around there are bound to be individual stocks that are leading the parade. Speculators might get in on those leaders but should be very quick to get out if things should sour. Stay with the winners but take small losses from the losers. Do not hang on expecting the market to know you are in and expect the market to confirm your judgment.
3 comments:
Merv as always thanks for your work, diligence, and commentary.
Appreciate the resource.
Merv,
Appreciate your work. Any of the indicators telling you the strength of the underlying move that may be beginning? Looking at the chart there seem to be a number of bear market rallies and I am wondering if the indicators are pointing to any more underlying strength to this one.
Thanks as always.
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