After The Close, 11 Aug 2008
Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data
Open: 221.22
Hugh: 224.08
Low: 206.18
Close: 211.94
Volume: 3526
Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.
That projection to the 190 level is getting closer and closer. At this rate we will reach it this week. The Daily Index is now within a percentage point of a 2/3 drop in price since its high last year. This is one of the values technicians look at when they are trying to guess how far a price will drop. It’s also a famous Fibonacci number that one often hears about. So, will it stop here? I doubt it but I’ll let the market action tell me what it IS doing rather than me telling it what it SHOULD do, one of the differences between a technician and a fundamentalist.
The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed down again, today by 10.42 points or 4.69%. There were only 6 winners on the day but 40 losers. Four stocks didn’t know where they wanted to go. Of the five largest stocks by market value, Cameco lost 2.8%, Denison lost 3.6%, First Uranium lost 5.7%, Paladin lost 4.2% and Uranium Participation lost 5.2%. The best performer today was East Asia Minerals with a gain of 6.7% while the worst performer was Western Uranium with a loss of 19.3%.
As far as the daily action and ratings are concerned, everything was negative on the week-end and nothing has changed, except for the worst. On the intermediate term the Index remains below its negative sloping moving average line. The momentum indicator remains in its negative zone and still below its negative trigger line. The indicator is below all recent lows and just about at its previous lowest reading. That would be the low in August of 2007, just before the Index took off for a 60% 2 ½ month rally. It’s going to be interesting to see if history will repeat itself but I wouldn’t hold my breadth. The volume indicator has been moving lower for the past month and a half but not with the speed or strength of the Index or momentum. It is negative and continues below its negative trigger line. All in all, the rating can only remain BEARISH.
On the short term it is no surprise that the Index continues to move lower below its negative moving average line. The momentum indicator also continues to move lower in its negative zone and deeper inside its oversold zone. It is at its lowest level since the plunge of mid-January. The daily volume continues to suggest a lack of interest from the speculators. The short term rating therefore remains BEARISH.
The Index action continues to be trapped by the channel lines shown on the chart. In addition, it remains below its very short term moving average line. This more aggressive moving average line has now remained below the short term moving average for a month. That is an unusually long time to be moving below the short term average and one could hope that a change will soon take place to get the very short term line above the short term one. BUT that is not yet on hand so we must go with what we got and not with what we hope. The Stochastic Oscillator, my aggressive momentum indicator, continues to move in a basic sideways direction just above its oversold line in its negative zone. For another day the direction of least resistance continues to be to the down side.
Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data
Open: 221.22
Hugh: 224.08
Low: 206.18
Close: 211.94
Volume: 3526
Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.
That projection to the 190 level is getting closer and closer. At this rate we will reach it this week. The Daily Index is now within a percentage point of a 2/3 drop in price since its high last year. This is one of the values technicians look at when they are trying to guess how far a price will drop. It’s also a famous Fibonacci number that one often hears about. So, will it stop here? I doubt it but I’ll let the market action tell me what it IS doing rather than me telling it what it SHOULD do, one of the differences between a technician and a fundamentalist.
The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed down again, today by 10.42 points or 4.69%. There were only 6 winners on the day but 40 losers. Four stocks didn’t know where they wanted to go. Of the five largest stocks by market value, Cameco lost 2.8%, Denison lost 3.6%, First Uranium lost 5.7%, Paladin lost 4.2% and Uranium Participation lost 5.2%. The best performer today was East Asia Minerals with a gain of 6.7% while the worst performer was Western Uranium with a loss of 19.3%.
As far as the daily action and ratings are concerned, everything was negative on the week-end and nothing has changed, except for the worst. On the intermediate term the Index remains below its negative sloping moving average line. The momentum indicator remains in its negative zone and still below its negative trigger line. The indicator is below all recent lows and just about at its previous lowest reading. That would be the low in August of 2007, just before the Index took off for a 60% 2 ½ month rally. It’s going to be interesting to see if history will repeat itself but I wouldn’t hold my breadth. The volume indicator has been moving lower for the past month and a half but not with the speed or strength of the Index or momentum. It is negative and continues below its negative trigger line. All in all, the rating can only remain BEARISH.
On the short term it is no surprise that the Index continues to move lower below its negative moving average line. The momentum indicator also continues to move lower in its negative zone and deeper inside its oversold zone. It is at its lowest level since the plunge of mid-January. The daily volume continues to suggest a lack of interest from the speculators. The short term rating therefore remains BEARISH.
The Index action continues to be trapped by the channel lines shown on the chart. In addition, it remains below its very short term moving average line. This more aggressive moving average line has now remained below the short term moving average for a month. That is an unusually long time to be moving below the short term average and one could hope that a change will soon take place to get the very short term line above the short term one. BUT that is not yet on hand so we must go with what we got and not with what we hope. The Stochastic Oscillator, my aggressive momentum indicator, continues to move in a basic sideways direction just above its oversold line in its negative zone. For another day the direction of least resistance continues to be to the down side.
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