After The Close, 07 Aug 2008
Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data
Open: 225.42
Hugh: 231.10
Low: 220.62
Close: 225.54
Volume: 3033
Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.
Another day and another stalemate in the uranium stocks. In fact it was a day that could have put you to sleep unless you were into Western Uranium (see below). Except for a couple of stocks most everything was in the single digit moves. In keeping with the neutral daily activity even the uranium price was neutral this past week, remaining where it has been for a couple of weeks now, at $64.50 per lb. Well, let’s get right to it.
The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed up on the day but one would hardly have noticed it. It was up 0.22 points or 0.10%. Continuing in the neutral direction the winners and losers were almost equal. There were 22 winners and 21 losers. The 7 remaining were going nowhere. Of the five largest, Cameco gained 1.3%, Denison lost 1.6%, First Uranium gained 3.4%, Paladin gained 2.7% and Uranium Participation lost 1.1%. The best performer on the day was Crosshair Exploration with a gain of 9.1% while the worst performer was Western Uranium with a loss of 22.8%.
The intermediate term continues as it has for some time now. The moving average basically turned downward in late November and, except for a brief period in late May/early June, has been heading lower ever since. As for the momentum indicator, it moved into its negative zone in early November and has stayed there since. The volume indicator has had its ups and downs and is in one of its down modes, below its trigger line. The intermediate term rating remains BEARISH.
As for the short term, we’ve had rallies along the way since November but they did not go far before turning back to the down side. By following the indicators one was able to basically stay with the moves, up or down, with only minor losses along the way. At the present time the Index is below the short term moving average line and the line itself is pointing lower. The short term momentum indicator remains in its negative zone and still below its oversold line. It is just below its negative sloping trigger line. All in all there is no reason to change the on going short term rating. It remains BEARISH.
As for the immediate direction of least resistance, well we are seeing that the Index remains in the lateral direction until it either closes below 217.50 or above 233.8. Those are the low and high prices from the most recent plunge day, Tuesday.
I’ve been asked why I use the Relative Strength Index (RSI) as my favorite momentum indicator. It’s just a personal preference. I like the fact that it is not just a subtraction between two moving averages (which is basically what the MACD is). The basis of the RSI is the ratio of the average point movement of the stock or Index on the up side versus the average point movement on the down side during the time period being considered. Most (probably 99.99999%) of technicians use a short 9 day or 13 day period for ALL of their analysis. I like to use a time period that is appropriate for the investment time period under consideration. I therefore use a 13 day time period for short term analysis, 50 day period for intermediate term analysis and 150 day period for long term analysis. Often I will go to a weekly chart and data for long term analysis and therefore use a 30 week period. As you have already realized, I get two basic facts from the indicator. Whether the indicator is inside its positive or negative zone and if the indicator has crossed and moved above or below its designated trigger line, and more importantly if the trigger line slope is pointing up or down.
Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data
Open: 225.42
Hugh: 231.10
Low: 220.62
Close: 225.54
Volume: 3033
Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.
Another day and another stalemate in the uranium stocks. In fact it was a day that could have put you to sleep unless you were into Western Uranium (see below). Except for a couple of stocks most everything was in the single digit moves. In keeping with the neutral daily activity even the uranium price was neutral this past week, remaining where it has been for a couple of weeks now, at $64.50 per lb. Well, let’s get right to it.
The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed up on the day but one would hardly have noticed it. It was up 0.22 points or 0.10%. Continuing in the neutral direction the winners and losers were almost equal. There were 22 winners and 21 losers. The 7 remaining were going nowhere. Of the five largest, Cameco gained 1.3%, Denison lost 1.6%, First Uranium gained 3.4%, Paladin gained 2.7% and Uranium Participation lost 1.1%. The best performer on the day was Crosshair Exploration with a gain of 9.1% while the worst performer was Western Uranium with a loss of 22.8%.
The intermediate term continues as it has for some time now. The moving average basically turned downward in late November and, except for a brief period in late May/early June, has been heading lower ever since. As for the momentum indicator, it moved into its negative zone in early November and has stayed there since. The volume indicator has had its ups and downs and is in one of its down modes, below its trigger line. The intermediate term rating remains BEARISH.
As for the short term, we’ve had rallies along the way since November but they did not go far before turning back to the down side. By following the indicators one was able to basically stay with the moves, up or down, with only minor losses along the way. At the present time the Index is below the short term moving average line and the line itself is pointing lower. The short term momentum indicator remains in its negative zone and still below its oversold line. It is just below its negative sloping trigger line. All in all there is no reason to change the on going short term rating. It remains BEARISH.
As for the immediate direction of least resistance, well we are seeing that the Index remains in the lateral direction until it either closes below 217.50 or above 233.8. Those are the low and high prices from the most recent plunge day, Tuesday.
I’ve been asked why I use the Relative Strength Index (RSI) as my favorite momentum indicator. It’s just a personal preference. I like the fact that it is not just a subtraction between two moving averages (which is basically what the MACD is). The basis of the RSI is the ratio of the average point movement of the stock or Index on the up side versus the average point movement on the down side during the time period being considered. Most (probably 99.99999%) of technicians use a short 9 day or 13 day period for ALL of their analysis. I like to use a time period that is appropriate for the investment time period under consideration. I therefore use a 13 day time period for short term analysis, 50 day period for intermediate term analysis and 150 day period for long term analysis. Often I will go to a weekly chart and data for long term analysis and therefore use a 30 week period. As you have already realized, I get two basic facts from the indicator. Whether the indicator is inside its positive or negative zone and if the indicator has crossed and moved above or below its designated trigger line, and more importantly if the trigger line slope is pointing up or down.
1 comment:
Thank you for your analysis. Let's hope sales of this energy commodity to India starts moving and your index heads North. See http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/indtalk.aspx
I hope you look into UPC.V in one of your future analysis. Thanks.
Post a Comment