After The Close, 30 July 2008
Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data
Open: 237.33
Hugh: 243.58
Low: 231.58
Close: 240.42
Volume: 3666
Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.
The Index was up on the day but has still not made an impression. The trend continues lateral, as it has for a few days now. It will change but in which direction. Once more we are getting into one of those “box” patterns. The short term direction will be determined depending upon which direction the action takes while getting out of the box. In addition to the box, we are still inside that wedge pattern shown here a few days back. By all accounts the Index should be breaking on the up side but it is kind of stubborn. Well, maybe tomorrow.
The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed up by 3.00 points or 1.26%. There were 26 winner, 17 losers and 7 going nowhere. All the five major stocks closed on the up side. Cameco gained 1.7%, Denison gained 3.6%, First Uranium gained 2.0%, Paladin gained 1.5% and Uranium One gained 4.5%. The best mover on the day was Yellowcake Mining with a gain of 36.0%. That represents only a movement of $0.09 but when you are in the low pennies any movement ends up to be a big %. As I am reviewing the stocks I am thinking of moving Yellowcake to a Spec-Uranium Index that is not yet finished. Other things took over and the Spec-Uranium Index was put aside for a while. It should be finished shortly. The worst performer on the day was Mawson Res. with a loss of 8.6%.
As the Index continues to move sideways the intermediate term moving average continues to move lower. The Index is still far above the Index but the convergence is going on slowly (it’s a lot faster for the short term). The momentum indicator continues to move higher and is just about to cross, to the up side, its trigger line. The trigger is still pointing downward so another day or two after the indicator cross may be required before we can call the momentum as turned around. The intermediate term remains BEARISH and would probably still remain so for a few days regardless of the Index move.
It’s always the short term that gets affected first by any new move, even the lateral move. The gap between the Index and the short term moving average line is becoming almost zilch. The Index is still below the negative line but it will take very little extra upside for the Index to go through the line. The momentum indicator, which yesterday moved below its trigger line, has once more moved above it’s trigger line. The trigger, itself, has now turned upwards. In addition, the indicator has moved back above its oversold line for a positive direction signal, although still in the negative zone. On the short term it is getting very close to a ratings change but unfortunately, still BEARISH today.
As for the immediate direction of motion, that looks to be in the upward direction. The Index has now crossed above its very short term moving average line although the line is still pointing downwards. The Stochastic Oscillator continues to move higher, above its positive trigger line, but still slightly inside its negative zone. If I was to rate the immediate term it would be + NEUTRAL. However, for the immediate term we look at the direction of least resistance and that is now upwards. Let’s see if the box holds for any length of time or if the direction overcomes the box resistance.
Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data
Open: 237.33
Hugh: 243.58
Low: 231.58
Close: 240.42
Volume: 3666
Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.
The Index was up on the day but has still not made an impression. The trend continues lateral, as it has for a few days now. It will change but in which direction. Once more we are getting into one of those “box” patterns. The short term direction will be determined depending upon which direction the action takes while getting out of the box. In addition to the box, we are still inside that wedge pattern shown here a few days back. By all accounts the Index should be breaking on the up side but it is kind of stubborn. Well, maybe tomorrow.
The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed up by 3.00 points or 1.26%. There were 26 winner, 17 losers and 7 going nowhere. All the five major stocks closed on the up side. Cameco gained 1.7%, Denison gained 3.6%, First Uranium gained 2.0%, Paladin gained 1.5% and Uranium One gained 4.5%. The best mover on the day was Yellowcake Mining with a gain of 36.0%. That represents only a movement of $0.09 but when you are in the low pennies any movement ends up to be a big %. As I am reviewing the stocks I am thinking of moving Yellowcake to a Spec-Uranium Index that is not yet finished. Other things took over and the Spec-Uranium Index was put aside for a while. It should be finished shortly. The worst performer on the day was Mawson Res. with a loss of 8.6%.
As the Index continues to move sideways the intermediate term moving average continues to move lower. The Index is still far above the Index but the convergence is going on slowly (it’s a lot faster for the short term). The momentum indicator continues to move higher and is just about to cross, to the up side, its trigger line. The trigger is still pointing downward so another day or two after the indicator cross may be required before we can call the momentum as turned around. The intermediate term remains BEARISH and would probably still remain so for a few days regardless of the Index move.
It’s always the short term that gets affected first by any new move, even the lateral move. The gap between the Index and the short term moving average line is becoming almost zilch. The Index is still below the negative line but it will take very little extra upside for the Index to go through the line. The momentum indicator, which yesterday moved below its trigger line, has once more moved above it’s trigger line. The trigger, itself, has now turned upwards. In addition, the indicator has moved back above its oversold line for a positive direction signal, although still in the negative zone. On the short term it is getting very close to a ratings change but unfortunately, still BEARISH today.
As for the immediate direction of motion, that looks to be in the upward direction. The Index has now crossed above its very short term moving average line although the line is still pointing downwards. The Stochastic Oscillator continues to move higher, above its positive trigger line, but still slightly inside its negative zone. If I was to rate the immediate term it would be + NEUTRAL. However, for the immediate term we look at the direction of least resistance and that is now upwards. Let’s see if the box holds for any length of time or if the direction overcomes the box resistance.
4 comments:
Such a nice blog. I hope you will create another post like this.
The price of the U308 stocks appear to move with the price of oil and to me the price of oil looks lower in the short term. Comments welcome.
As with all stocks the uranium stocks move with the supply and demand for such stocks. Why the supply and demand? I would not place my bets on any one factor. I would wait for the stock activity to tell me which is in control and not try to guess ahead of time. My guessing, using whatever criteria, has not been that great.
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