After The Close, 22 July 2008
Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data
Open: 252.20
Hugh: 256.23
Low: 244.06
Close: 250.14
Volume: 4140
Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.
Still waiting for the turn around but it just ain’t coming. The price of uranium may continue to improve, it is up another $0.50 to $64.50 this week, but the average price of uranium stocks is going the other way. My experience is that the stocks are more of a leading indicator than is the commodity, at least it’s that way for gold so for uranium should be no different.
The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed 2.76 points lower on the day, that’s a drop of 1.09%. That doesn’t seem like much but a % here and another % there and before you know it we have a serious decline. The winners and losers were similar to yesterday. 15 winners, 28 losers and 7 unchanged. Except for Paladin the 5 largest stocks were in daily disaster zones. Cameco declined 2.9%, Denison lost 3.3%, First Uranium lost 3.0%, Paladin gained 5.7% and Uranium One lost 4.1%. The best daily winner was Hathor Exploration with a gain of 10.7% while Titan Uranium had almost an identical loss (actually 10.6%) as the biggest loser.
On the week-end I showed a long term bullish wedge pattern that was still far from a break-out. Here we see a very short term bullish wedge pattern. Let’s see how this turns out. These negative sloping wedge patterns most often break on the up side (that’s why I call them bullish) but of course, nothing is 100% perfect so we should wait for the break and not guess ahead of time. So much for looking on the rosy side.
The intermediate term remains basically as written during the week-end. The Index continues below its negative sloping moving average line and the momentum indicator remains in its negative zone below its negative trigger line. The momentum indicator seems to be finding support at the level of the June low but is still some distance above its late April low. This may be seen as showing some internal strength and giving us some hope that a turn around is not far away. However, we do not trade or invest on hope, we trade and invest WITH THE CONFIRMED TREND and that is still to the down side. With the volume indicator still on the downward swing the only logical intermediate term rating, at this time, is BEARISH.
The short term is not much different than the intermediate term as far as the indicators are concerned. The chart shows the short term wedge pattern. At this time for the wedge to be broken on the up side that would most likely also cause the short term moving average to be broken. For now the Index is below both its short term (15 DMAw) and its very short term (8 DMAw) negative sloping moving average lines. The short term momentum indicator (13 Day RSI) seems to be finding support just above its oversold line while the more aggressive Stochastic Oscillator is doing the same. Both indicators are still below their negative trigger lines although the SO is very close to moving above its trigger line. What we have here is a continuation of the short term BEARISH rating. As for the immediate term direction of motion, as mentioned yesterday the Index seems to have changed its direction of least resistance from downward to lateral. The past three days has seen a decided lack of enthusiasm for moving lower but not yet any for moving higher. Sideways continues to be the direction of the moment.
Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data
Open: 252.20
Hugh: 256.23
Low: 244.06
Close: 250.14
Volume: 4140
Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.
Still waiting for the turn around but it just ain’t coming. The price of uranium may continue to improve, it is up another $0.50 to $64.50 this week, but the average price of uranium stocks is going the other way. My experience is that the stocks are more of a leading indicator than is the commodity, at least it’s that way for gold so for uranium should be no different.
The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed 2.76 points lower on the day, that’s a drop of 1.09%. That doesn’t seem like much but a % here and another % there and before you know it we have a serious decline. The winners and losers were similar to yesterday. 15 winners, 28 losers and 7 unchanged. Except for Paladin the 5 largest stocks were in daily disaster zones. Cameco declined 2.9%, Denison lost 3.3%, First Uranium lost 3.0%, Paladin gained 5.7% and Uranium One lost 4.1%. The best daily winner was Hathor Exploration with a gain of 10.7% while Titan Uranium had almost an identical loss (actually 10.6%) as the biggest loser.
On the week-end I showed a long term bullish wedge pattern that was still far from a break-out. Here we see a very short term bullish wedge pattern. Let’s see how this turns out. These negative sloping wedge patterns most often break on the up side (that’s why I call them bullish) but of course, nothing is 100% perfect so we should wait for the break and not guess ahead of time. So much for looking on the rosy side.
The intermediate term remains basically as written during the week-end. The Index continues below its negative sloping moving average line and the momentum indicator remains in its negative zone below its negative trigger line. The momentum indicator seems to be finding support at the level of the June low but is still some distance above its late April low. This may be seen as showing some internal strength and giving us some hope that a turn around is not far away. However, we do not trade or invest on hope, we trade and invest WITH THE CONFIRMED TREND and that is still to the down side. With the volume indicator still on the downward swing the only logical intermediate term rating, at this time, is BEARISH.
The short term is not much different than the intermediate term as far as the indicators are concerned. The chart shows the short term wedge pattern. At this time for the wedge to be broken on the up side that would most likely also cause the short term moving average to be broken. For now the Index is below both its short term (15 DMAw) and its very short term (8 DMAw) negative sloping moving average lines. The short term momentum indicator (13 Day RSI) seems to be finding support just above its oversold line while the more aggressive Stochastic Oscillator is doing the same. Both indicators are still below their negative trigger lines although the SO is very close to moving above its trigger line. What we have here is a continuation of the short term BEARISH rating. As for the immediate term direction of motion, as mentioned yesterday the Index seems to have changed its direction of least resistance from downward to lateral. The past three days has seen a decided lack of enthusiasm for moving lower but not yet any for moving higher. Sideways continues to be the direction of the moment.
1 comment:
Baw ah, kasagad sa imo maghimo blog. Nalingaw gd ko basa.
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