Merv’s Weekly Uranium Review
for week ending 04 Apr 2008
That’s three days in a row on the up side. Things are looking a little bit better than they did a couple of weeks ago. More below. First, the normal rundown of daily and weekly market activity.
First the Friday activity. The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed higher by 0.057 points or 2.04%. There were 29 daily winners, 17 losers and 4 going nowhere. Of the five largest stocks Cameco gained 2.9%, Denison gained 1.9%, First Uranium lost 1.9%, Paladin gained 4.2% and Uranium One gained 14.7%. It almost looks like Uranium One is coming back to life. The best daily performer was Xemplar Energy with a gain of 20.3% while the worst performer was Pitchstone Exploration with a loss of only 5.0%. If that’s the worst the stocks could do maybe things are getting better.
As for the week overall, the Merv’s Weekly Uranium Index closed down 90.35 points or 1.27%. The Daily Index closed higher by 1.97% from week-end to week-end. The difference in performance between these two Indices is due to the different method of calculating the Index value between the two Indices. Which is better? They both usually provide a very close and similar information. To be this far apart in one week is unusual but as long as one follows a consistent Index you will normally get the same answers. There were 17 winners on the week and 33 losers (sort of confirms the Weekly Index and its negative weekly close), As for the five largest stocks, Cameco gained 5.6%, Denison gained 2.5%, First Uranium lost 8.9%, Paladin lost 2.5% and Uranium One gained 11.5%. The best weekly performer was USEC Inc. with a weekly gain of 41.2% while the worst weekly performer was Yellowcake Mining with a loss of 18.2%.
Going to the Weekly Index for my long term information the activity continues to be trapped in that (bullish) downward sloping wedge pattern. Why do I say bullish? That’s because MOST of the time these downward sloping wedge pattern end up being broken on the up side. The opposite is true if we had an upward sloping wedge. The Index is still far below its negative sloping moving average line and the momentum indicator remains in its negative zone. Although the shorter term momentum indicators are providing some encouragement of a positive divergence in their actions there is no such divergence in the long term momentum indicator. Should there be a reversal of trend it will come without such advance warning from the long term momentum (which is often the case so it’s not unusual). There is nothing here yet to get all excited about and the long term rating remains BEARISH.
Now to the Daily Index. First the Index continues below its negative sloping moving average line. The momentum indicator is also below its neutral line inside its negative zone. However, it is starting to move upwards and has moved above its trigger line with the trigger now pointing upwards. The momentum has bottomed (so far) just slightly above its January low giving us a weak positive divergence. Not shown on the chart but there is a somewhat stronger positive divergence when the lows of last August are taken into account. So, one might get some encouragement that the momentum behind the recent moves is improving. That said, the rating still has not changed and remains BEARISH.
On the short term things continue to look up. The Index has now breached its short term moving average line although the line has not yet turned upward. The short term momentum indicator continues to move higher, and is now above its previous high from two weeks back, but is still in its negative zone. It is above its trigger line and the trigger is pointing upwards. The Index is still in that “box” and just a hair below its short term down trend line. Of great encouragement has been the volume action during these past few days of Index advance. The volume has been continually getting higher and higher (see the bars at the lower part of the daily chart). Putting it all together we are not quite at the bullish stage so the rating has been upgraded to a + NEUTRAL rating, one level below a full bullish rating, but going in the right direction.
For the first time since turning down on March 4 the Index is above its very short term moving average line and the line slope has turned upward. The more aggressive momentum indicator, the Stochastic Oscillator (SO), is also in its positive zone, above its positive sloping trigger line, and both are heading higher. The very short term or as I often called it in my precious metals commentaries, the immediate term, is now fully BULLISH.
The more aggressive traders might be rushing into this market with well maintained stops just in case. The speculator may now be making plans of jumping in as the trend continues to get better. The long term investor, well there’s nothing we can tell them. They invest and hold regardless of the direction of the market. But if one wants to invest for the long term and wants to reduce risk of losing, well this is not yet the time.
for week ending 04 Apr 2008
That’s three days in a row on the up side. Things are looking a little bit better than they did a couple of weeks ago. More below. First, the normal rundown of daily and weekly market activity.
First the Friday activity. The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed higher by 0.057 points or 2.04%. There were 29 daily winners, 17 losers and 4 going nowhere. Of the five largest stocks Cameco gained 2.9%, Denison gained 1.9%, First Uranium lost 1.9%, Paladin gained 4.2% and Uranium One gained 14.7%. It almost looks like Uranium One is coming back to life. The best daily performer was Xemplar Energy with a gain of 20.3% while the worst performer was Pitchstone Exploration with a loss of only 5.0%. If that’s the worst the stocks could do maybe things are getting better.
As for the week overall, the Merv’s Weekly Uranium Index closed down 90.35 points or 1.27%. The Daily Index closed higher by 1.97% from week-end to week-end. The difference in performance between these two Indices is due to the different method of calculating the Index value between the two Indices. Which is better? They both usually provide a very close and similar information. To be this far apart in one week is unusual but as long as one follows a consistent Index you will normally get the same answers. There were 17 winners on the week and 33 losers (sort of confirms the Weekly Index and its negative weekly close), As for the five largest stocks, Cameco gained 5.6%, Denison gained 2.5%, First Uranium lost 8.9%, Paladin lost 2.5% and Uranium One gained 11.5%. The best weekly performer was USEC Inc. with a weekly gain of 41.2% while the worst weekly performer was Yellowcake Mining with a loss of 18.2%.
Going to the Weekly Index for my long term information the activity continues to be trapped in that (bullish) downward sloping wedge pattern. Why do I say bullish? That’s because MOST of the time these downward sloping wedge pattern end up being broken on the up side. The opposite is true if we had an upward sloping wedge. The Index is still far below its negative sloping moving average line and the momentum indicator remains in its negative zone. Although the shorter term momentum indicators are providing some encouragement of a positive divergence in their actions there is no such divergence in the long term momentum indicator. Should there be a reversal of trend it will come without such advance warning from the long term momentum (which is often the case so it’s not unusual). There is nothing here yet to get all excited about and the long term rating remains BEARISH.
Now to the Daily Index. First the Index continues below its negative sloping moving average line. The momentum indicator is also below its neutral line inside its negative zone. However, it is starting to move upwards and has moved above its trigger line with the trigger now pointing upwards. The momentum has bottomed (so far) just slightly above its January low giving us a weak positive divergence. Not shown on the chart but there is a somewhat stronger positive divergence when the lows of last August are taken into account. So, one might get some encouragement that the momentum behind the recent moves is improving. That said, the rating still has not changed and remains BEARISH.
On the short term things continue to look up. The Index has now breached its short term moving average line although the line has not yet turned upward. The short term momentum indicator continues to move higher, and is now above its previous high from two weeks back, but is still in its negative zone. It is above its trigger line and the trigger is pointing upwards. The Index is still in that “box” and just a hair below its short term down trend line. Of great encouragement has been the volume action during these past few days of Index advance. The volume has been continually getting higher and higher (see the bars at the lower part of the daily chart). Putting it all together we are not quite at the bullish stage so the rating has been upgraded to a + NEUTRAL rating, one level below a full bullish rating, but going in the right direction.
For the first time since turning down on March 4 the Index is above its very short term moving average line and the line slope has turned upward. The more aggressive momentum indicator, the Stochastic Oscillator (SO), is also in its positive zone, above its positive sloping trigger line, and both are heading higher. The very short term or as I often called it in my precious metals commentaries, the immediate term, is now fully BULLISH.
The more aggressive traders might be rushing into this market with well maintained stops just in case. The speculator may now be making plans of jumping in as the trend continues to get better. The long term investor, well there’s nothing we can tell them. They invest and hold regardless of the direction of the market. But if one wants to invest for the long term and wants to reduce risk of losing, well this is not yet the time.
1 comment:
Any comments on the 30 week RSI on the weekly index? The last few times it was at these levels there was a multi week rally. I am interested in what you think o fthis indicator...
thanks again
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