BASIC NOTES

Uranium Companies

There are very few pure uranium companies. Most companies, especially the small exploration type, are active in more than the uranium industry. This blog makes no attempt to guage the percentage of a companies activity that are related to the finding, mining or processing of uraniun. They all do, however, have some uranium activities (to the best of our review).

Merv's Uranium Indices

I have developed two Uranium Indices. They each have the same component stocks but are calculated using different methodologies. My weekly Index is based upon the average weekly performance of the component stocks. My daily Index is based upon the daily average of the component stocks open, high, low and close prices along with the daily average volume of all component stocks.

Click on the chart or table to enlage the view.



16 April 2008

Merv's Daily Commentary, 16 Apr 2008


After The Close, 16 April 2008

A little bit up, a little bit down, this is starting to get monotonous. When, oh when is the Index going to move? As the Index continues to move sideways inside that “box” it gets closer and closer to the downward sloping third FAN trend line. It might just break above the FAN without actually moving higher. That’s not the scenario I’m looking for.

The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed higher by 4.93 points or 1.77%. Despite the advance there were almost as many losers as winners. There were 22 winners, 19 losers and 9 unchanged. I made the comment yesterday about the large number of unchanged. I know it means something but am not really sure what. To me it suggest a whole lot of speculators that don’t know what’s happening and don’t know what to do. Most of the top five stocks by market value closed higher. Cameco gained 1.6%, Denison gained 2.2%, First Uranium lost 0.2%, Paladin gained 2.1% and Uranium One gained 9.9%. The best gainer on the day was Azimut Exploration with a gain of 12.3% while the worst loser was Titan Uranium with a small loss of 5.5%.

Nothing is yet happening from the intermediate term but as with that third FAN trend line as the Index basically continues to move sideways it continues to close in on a downward sloping moving average line. Should an upside break occur it could be no time at all for the intermediate term to start changing. In the mean time nothing has changed so I wouldn’t go through the routine. The intermediate term rating remains BEARISH.

On the short term some seems to be changing almost every day. The Index closed above the short term moving average line with the line sloping upwards. The short term momentum indicator continues to move in a basic upward direction still within its negative zone but above its positive sloping trigger line. The suggestion from the upward moving momentum indicator versus a basically lateral Index is that there is underlying strength in the recent Index move but is not yet showing up in the Index itself. The same situation is seen in the intermediate term momentum but is much more emphatic in the short term indicator. Unfortunately, on a very short term or immediate term basis the aggressive Stochastic Oscillator is showing weakness and is below its downward sloping trigger line. We might need another day to see which is going to over power which, the SO or the short term momentum. For now the short term rating has moved back into the BULLISH camp.

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