After The Close, 03 April 2008
Day two of the rally, how many more to come? It’s not yet time to get too complacent but the Index is going in the right direction. More analysis below.
The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed higher today by 0.05 points or 1.83%. Despite the gain there were fewer winners than losers in the market breadth. 22 stocks closed higher while 24 closed lower with 4 unchanged. Of the five largest stocks, four of five advanced. Cameco gained 1.8%, Denison gained 1.7%, First Uranium gained 3.4%, Paladin lost 2.4% and Uranium One gained 10.7%. The best performer today was USEC Inc. with a gain of 27.7% while the worst performer was Yellowcake Mining with a loss of 18.2%.
As I have a few comments Re: the short term and since nothing much is yet going on as far as the intermediate term is concerned I’ll just cut to the chase again. The intermediate term rating remains BEARISH.
A few things are happening from the short and/or very short term standpoint. First the normal indicators. The Index closed just below the short term moving average line (15 DMAw) with the line in an early stage of a turn around but still pointing downward at this time. The short term momentum indicator has now moved above its oversold line and above its trigger line with the trigger line now pointing upwards. However, the indicator is still in its negative zone. Although things are firming up for a reversal of trend it’s not there yet. The short term rating still remains BEARISH.
The very short term is closer to reversing. The Index closed above its very short term moving average line (8 DMAw) but the line has not quite turned to the positive. One more day will do it. The aggressive Stochastic Oscillator (SO) is moving higher above its trigger line but the trigger is still pointing lower. The very short term is rated as + NEUTRAL, just one level below a full bull.
The SO, over the past few weeks, has been showing strength versus the Index action. If we look at the two we see that during the week of 17 March the Index made a new low while the SO did not. During the week of the 24th the Index was very week on the up side while the SO was going gang busters. Once more during this past week while the Index was making new lows the SO was not. The SO has been showing continual internal strengthening in the Index action that the Index did not outwardly show. This gives us encouragement that a good rally may be upon us. However, let the market action dictate if that is so or not. Internal strength can change fast.
For the short term trader you could do a lot worse than to take the guidance from the moving averages. There are two ways to go. You could go with the slope of the short term moving average line as your guide. It has kept you in on the way up and on the way down for a sizable portion of the moves. Best of all, it gets you out early and allows you to relax while others are frustrated not knowing what to do. The other thing you could go by is the cross over of the short term moving average line by the very short term line. It is almost as good (sometimes better) than the short term slope by itself, however, it seems to be just slightly on the more cautious side than the first idea. You takes your pick and takes your chances.
Lastly we have the “box” and the short term down trend line. The Index is still well fixed inside the box and has not yet broken out. The Index is still slightly below the down trend line. It’s obvious that the first to go will be the down trend line. The Index is very close to breaking above. That would suggest a short term move and the other indicators could be confirmation indicators, it all depends upon how aggressive one wants to be.
Lot’s of potentials here, let’s see what happens tomorrow.
Day two of the rally, how many more to come? It’s not yet time to get too complacent but the Index is going in the right direction. More analysis below.
The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed higher today by 0.05 points or 1.83%. Despite the gain there were fewer winners than losers in the market breadth. 22 stocks closed higher while 24 closed lower with 4 unchanged. Of the five largest stocks, four of five advanced. Cameco gained 1.8%, Denison gained 1.7%, First Uranium gained 3.4%, Paladin lost 2.4% and Uranium One gained 10.7%. The best performer today was USEC Inc. with a gain of 27.7% while the worst performer was Yellowcake Mining with a loss of 18.2%.
As I have a few comments Re: the short term and since nothing much is yet going on as far as the intermediate term is concerned I’ll just cut to the chase again. The intermediate term rating remains BEARISH.
A few things are happening from the short and/or very short term standpoint. First the normal indicators. The Index closed just below the short term moving average line (15 DMAw) with the line in an early stage of a turn around but still pointing downward at this time. The short term momentum indicator has now moved above its oversold line and above its trigger line with the trigger line now pointing upwards. However, the indicator is still in its negative zone. Although things are firming up for a reversal of trend it’s not there yet. The short term rating still remains BEARISH.
The very short term is closer to reversing. The Index closed above its very short term moving average line (8 DMAw) but the line has not quite turned to the positive. One more day will do it. The aggressive Stochastic Oscillator (SO) is moving higher above its trigger line but the trigger is still pointing lower. The very short term is rated as + NEUTRAL, just one level below a full bull.
The SO, over the past few weeks, has been showing strength versus the Index action. If we look at the two we see that during the week of 17 March the Index made a new low while the SO did not. During the week of the 24th the Index was very week on the up side while the SO was going gang busters. Once more during this past week while the Index was making new lows the SO was not. The SO has been showing continual internal strengthening in the Index action that the Index did not outwardly show. This gives us encouragement that a good rally may be upon us. However, let the market action dictate if that is so or not. Internal strength can change fast.
For the short term trader you could do a lot worse than to take the guidance from the moving averages. There are two ways to go. You could go with the slope of the short term moving average line as your guide. It has kept you in on the way up and on the way down for a sizable portion of the moves. Best of all, it gets you out early and allows you to relax while others are frustrated not knowing what to do. The other thing you could go by is the cross over of the short term moving average line by the very short term line. It is almost as good (sometimes better) than the short term slope by itself, however, it seems to be just slightly on the more cautious side than the first idea. You takes your pick and takes your chances.
Lastly we have the “box” and the short term down trend line. The Index is still well fixed inside the box and has not yet broken out. The Index is still slightly below the down trend line. It’s obvious that the first to go will be the down trend line. The Index is very close to breaking above. That would suggest a short term move and the other indicators could be confirmation indicators, it all depends upon how aggressive one wants to be.
Lot’s of potentials here, let’s see what happens tomorrow.
No comments:
Post a Comment