Merv's Daily Commentary, 20 Mar 2008

After The Close, 20 March 2008

Well, another downer. Are you starting to get the feel that we are due for an up day? We’ve had five down days in a row. Now, five down days in a row is not rare but six days is. So, unless we are going to get a rare day on Monday (Friday markets are closed for Easter Friday) expect it to be an up day. It just seems like a long wait to get to an up day.

The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed lower by 0.038 points or 1.37%. There were 17 winners and 28 losers with 5 going nowhere. Of the five largest stocks by market value, Cameco lost 3.3%, Denison lost 7.5%, First Uranium lost 4.2%, Paladin lost 3.0% and Uranium One was the lone winner with a gain of 7.8%. The best daily performer was Aurora Energy with a gain of 17.1% while the worst loser was Ur-Energy with a loss of 8.6%.

Still nothing new to add to the intermediate term prognosis. The Index continues below its negative moving average line and the momentum indicator continues in its negative zone below its negatively sloping trigger line. The best we can expect, looking at the chart, is that the momentum indicator could move above its trigger line but that would still take at least two or three good upside days and would only suggest that the momentum has now started to move upward but not yet crossed its neutral line. We are still far from reversing the intermediate term rating, it continues as BEARISH.

On the short term although the Index had its ups and downs during the day it closed just about at the same level as where it opened. This suggests that during the day there was a battle between the bulls and the bears but was fought to a draw at the end of the day. If the closing price was closer to the high for the day that might have indicated the bulls starting to take control but for today, it was basically a draw. This basic draw is also noted by the short term momentum indicator with its almost lateral daily move. One might look upon THAT as the start of a turn around but I’ll wait for the turn AND the reversal of the trigger line. For now the Index remains below a negative moving average line and the momentum continues in its oversold zone, below its negative trigger line. Although not shown today, the Stochastic Oscillator is in its oversold zone and at a level from which the past several rallies started from. However, I must remain with my short term rating of BEARISH until the indicators verify a reversal.

Hope all have a pleasant Easter.