After The Close, 17 March 2008
Well, the Index broke out of the “box” mentioned in the week-end commentary so I guess the direction of least resistance continues to be to the down side. Although it is difficult to see on the chart the daily low was just a little lower than the previous low in January for a new bear market low. The closing price also made a new low close. The momentum indicator did not make a new low. This will be looked at below.
The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed down 0.144 points or 4.51%, a hefty decline. The decline really raised hell with the winners and losers. There actually was a winner, in fact 3 of them. As for losers, we were trounced by them with 44 going lower. There were 3 that went nowhere. As for the five largest stocks, all losers. Cameco lost 4.4%, Denison lost 2.6%, First Uranium lost 2.1%, Paladin lost 5.3% and Uranium One lost 7.5%. The best of the three gainers was Pitchstone Exploration with a mild gain of 7.4%. With a lousy day such as today it was surprising that the 44 losers did not have many significant losses. There were only 4 double digit losers, the worst being CanAlaska Ventures with a loss of 14.3%. We’ve seen far worse days in the % loss section.
Looking at the chart and intermediate term indicators nothing has changed as far as the rating is concerned. The Index is still below its negative sloping moving average line and the momentum indicator is still in its negative zone moving lower below its negative trigger line. The interesting feature is the momentum indicator. As mentioned above, it has not made a new low with the Index and is poised to give us a positive divergence signal should the Index rally before the momentum moves much lower. The momentum IS confirming the Index move into new low territory but with strength that is improving rather than decreasing. We’ll just have to see how this plays itself out. In the mean time the intermediate term rating remains BEARISH.
As always there are some interesting things going on in the short term indicators. First the normal indicators. The Index is below its negative moving average line and the momentum is in its negative zone below a negative sloping trigger line. A close look at the activity does give us some hope for a turn around. I must caution that hope DOES NOT mean certainty. First, I am somewhat surprised that the Index did not close lower down in its daily trading range. That would have indicated a very negative action. However, the Index closed just above its mid point of its daily trading range suggesting more of a stand-off than a negative. Yes, we had all those stocks closing lower but they did not collapse with major % losses. The short term momentum indicator is moving lower fast and is almost on top of its oversold line. A little more and we can be looking forward to a halt to the decline and maybe a rally. As for the more aggressive Stochastic Oscillator, although it is still in the negative zone its direction is still upwards and remains just above its positive trigger line. The neutral nature of the close mentioned above is picked up by the SO and therefore it has not reacted lower as one might expect from the 4.5% lower close. I would still not place any money on a significant reversal but it is something that one should keep an eye on just in case something more significant should develop from it. For now I must still rate the short term as BEARISH.
Stay with the beer and TV for now. The time will come to jump in but why take extra risks?
Well, the Index broke out of the “box” mentioned in the week-end commentary so I guess the direction of least resistance continues to be to the down side. Although it is difficult to see on the chart the daily low was just a little lower than the previous low in January for a new bear market low. The closing price also made a new low close. The momentum indicator did not make a new low. This will be looked at below.
The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed down 0.144 points or 4.51%, a hefty decline. The decline really raised hell with the winners and losers. There actually was a winner, in fact 3 of them. As for losers, we were trounced by them with 44 going lower. There were 3 that went nowhere. As for the five largest stocks, all losers. Cameco lost 4.4%, Denison lost 2.6%, First Uranium lost 2.1%, Paladin lost 5.3% and Uranium One lost 7.5%. The best of the three gainers was Pitchstone Exploration with a mild gain of 7.4%. With a lousy day such as today it was surprising that the 44 losers did not have many significant losses. There were only 4 double digit losers, the worst being CanAlaska Ventures with a loss of 14.3%. We’ve seen far worse days in the % loss section.
Looking at the chart and intermediate term indicators nothing has changed as far as the rating is concerned. The Index is still below its negative sloping moving average line and the momentum indicator is still in its negative zone moving lower below its negative trigger line. The interesting feature is the momentum indicator. As mentioned above, it has not made a new low with the Index and is poised to give us a positive divergence signal should the Index rally before the momentum moves much lower. The momentum IS confirming the Index move into new low territory but with strength that is improving rather than decreasing. We’ll just have to see how this plays itself out. In the mean time the intermediate term rating remains BEARISH.
As always there are some interesting things going on in the short term indicators. First the normal indicators. The Index is below its negative moving average line and the momentum is in its negative zone below a negative sloping trigger line. A close look at the activity does give us some hope for a turn around. I must caution that hope DOES NOT mean certainty. First, I am somewhat surprised that the Index did not close lower down in its daily trading range. That would have indicated a very negative action. However, the Index closed just above its mid point of its daily trading range suggesting more of a stand-off than a negative. Yes, we had all those stocks closing lower but they did not collapse with major % losses. The short term momentum indicator is moving lower fast and is almost on top of its oversold line. A little more and we can be looking forward to a halt to the decline and maybe a rally. As for the more aggressive Stochastic Oscillator, although it is still in the negative zone its direction is still upwards and remains just above its positive trigger line. The neutral nature of the close mentioned above is picked up by the SO and therefore it has not reacted lower as one might expect from the 4.5% lower close. I would still not place any money on a significant reversal but it is something that one should keep an eye on just in case something more significant should develop from it. For now I must still rate the short term as BEARISH.
Stay with the beer and TV for now. The time will come to jump in but why take extra risks?
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