After the Close, 25 Feb 2008
Little by little the Merv’s Daily Uranium Index is getting closer and closer to decision day. Both the intermediate term moving average line and that third FAN trend line are just a few % points above today’s close. But the thing that keeps bothering me is the lack of enthusiasm in the move. By now the momentum indicator should have broken through its neutral line into its positive zone but unfortunately it is still some distance inside its negative zone. Just doesn’t feel like the action of a new bull market, at this stage it just seems more like the action of a bear market rally.
The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed up by 0.069 points or 1.98%. Better than most days recently but still pathetic compared to previous rallies. There were 28 winners and 15 losers today. As I mentioned the other day, I’d like to see the winners over 35 and the losers less than 10 to consider it a good up day. As for the 5 largest stocks they were mixed. Cameco gained 0.3%, Denison gained 8.7%, First Uranium lost 4.2%, Paladin lost 0.6% and finally Uranium One had an up day with a gain of 9.1%. The best performer was Yellowcake Mining with a gain of 13.4% while the bummer of the day was NWT Uranium with a loss of 8.5%.
As mentioned above, the intermediate term is getting closer and closer to decision time. Does it remain bearish or are we going to go into a bull? As of today that decision has not been made. The Index remains below the negative sloping moving average line and the momentum indicator remains in its negative zone. The volume indicator is quite positive but as mentioned during the week-end write-up the indicator is giving an erroneous reading because of the high volume on the down side for recent Uranium One trading that is, by the indicator criteria, counted as up volume. For now the Index intermediate term rating has to remain BEARISH but it is getting close to some kind of decision.
As for the short term, that continues to look good, at least as far as the indicators are concerned. The Index continues to move higher above its positive sloping short term moving average line. The short term momentum indicator continues to move higher inside its positive zone and even the trigger line has now entered the positive zone. As for the more aggressive Stochastic Oscillator, it had been moving downward recently but today seems to be straightening out, not really heading lower but not yet reversed to the up side. It needs another day to see which way it will go. The recent action of the Index can now be trapped inside a nice upward sloping channel band which could define a reversal of trend or a more aggressive upward move depending upon the Index breaking below or above the channel. As of today’s close we are still have a BULLISH short term rating.
I hope I can instill into investors and speculators to study the charts and take your cue from the technical discipline as far as timing your purchase AND sales. Above all, you must respect the fact that there is a time to get the heck out of a stock and not get enamored by it, ask any Uranium One purchaser near the top. Buying at the top was not the critical mistake, it’s in not selling quickly when the stock turned and take a small loss, THAT was the mistake. And only the technical discipline will help you here. The fundamentalist is correct when they say “you can’t time the market”. They are talking about the fundamental discipline, and there you can’t time the market. But with the technical discipline you can sure time it MOST of the time. There are times you will be wrong but the discipline will quickly tell you so and allow you to get out with a minor loss.
Before you invest, Always check your market timing with a
Qualified Professional Market Technician
Little by little the Merv’s Daily Uranium Index is getting closer and closer to decision day. Both the intermediate term moving average line and that third FAN trend line are just a few % points above today’s close. But the thing that keeps bothering me is the lack of enthusiasm in the move. By now the momentum indicator should have broken through its neutral line into its positive zone but unfortunately it is still some distance inside its negative zone. Just doesn’t feel like the action of a new bull market, at this stage it just seems more like the action of a bear market rally.
The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed up by 0.069 points or 1.98%. Better than most days recently but still pathetic compared to previous rallies. There were 28 winners and 15 losers today. As I mentioned the other day, I’d like to see the winners over 35 and the losers less than 10 to consider it a good up day. As for the 5 largest stocks they were mixed. Cameco gained 0.3%, Denison gained 8.7%, First Uranium lost 4.2%, Paladin lost 0.6% and finally Uranium One had an up day with a gain of 9.1%. The best performer was Yellowcake Mining with a gain of 13.4% while the bummer of the day was NWT Uranium with a loss of 8.5%.
As mentioned above, the intermediate term is getting closer and closer to decision time. Does it remain bearish or are we going to go into a bull? As of today that decision has not been made. The Index remains below the negative sloping moving average line and the momentum indicator remains in its negative zone. The volume indicator is quite positive but as mentioned during the week-end write-up the indicator is giving an erroneous reading because of the high volume on the down side for recent Uranium One trading that is, by the indicator criteria, counted as up volume. For now the Index intermediate term rating has to remain BEARISH but it is getting close to some kind of decision.
As for the short term, that continues to look good, at least as far as the indicators are concerned. The Index continues to move higher above its positive sloping short term moving average line. The short term momentum indicator continues to move higher inside its positive zone and even the trigger line has now entered the positive zone. As for the more aggressive Stochastic Oscillator, it had been moving downward recently but today seems to be straightening out, not really heading lower but not yet reversed to the up side. It needs another day to see which way it will go. The recent action of the Index can now be trapped inside a nice upward sloping channel band which could define a reversal of trend or a more aggressive upward move depending upon the Index breaking below or above the channel. As of today’s close we are still have a BULLISH short term rating.
I hope I can instill into investors and speculators to study the charts and take your cue from the technical discipline as far as timing your purchase AND sales. Above all, you must respect the fact that there is a time to get the heck out of a stock and not get enamored by it, ask any Uranium One purchaser near the top. Buying at the top was not the critical mistake, it’s in not selling quickly when the stock turned and take a small loss, THAT was the mistake. And only the technical discipline will help you here. The fundamentalist is correct when they say “you can’t time the market”. They are talking about the fundamental discipline, and there you can’t time the market. But with the technical discipline you can sure time it MOST of the time. There are times you will be wrong but the discipline will quickly tell you so and allow you to get out with a minor loss.
Before you invest, Always check your market timing with a
Qualified Professional Market Technician
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