Merv’s Weekly Uranium Review
for week ending 05 December 2008
Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data for Friday 05 Dec 2008
Open: 105.37
Hugh: 108.74
Low: 101.23
Close: 105.49
Volume: 5105
Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.
Another week has gone by and we still have no resolution to that “box” pattern. The Daily Index just keeps on moving in a sideways direction giving us hopes and despairs along the way. I’m not sure if we are now in a hope or despair period, looks more like despair but who knows? The uranium stocks were slightly lower on Friday and lower on the week. Let’s get to the charts and indicators and see if we can gleam anything from them.
The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed Friday on a down note. It was lower by 1.01 points or 0.95%. There were 13 winners on the day, 29 losers and 8 going nowhere. Not the ratios of winners to losers I would like to see. As for the five largest stocks by market value, they were mixed on Friday. Cameco closed lower by 1.7%, Denison closed lower by 10.0%, Paladin closed on the up side by 6.0%, Uranium One closed lower by 7.0% and USEC closed higher by 1.3%. No real direction here. The best winner on the day was Energy Fuels with a gain of 26.7% while the loser on the day was Bayswater Uranium with a daily loss of 16.7%.
As for the week as a whole, the Merv’s Weekly Uranium Index closed lower by 140.77 points or 6.48%. There were 13 weekly winners, 36 weekly losers and one that did not know where to go. Of the five largest stocks, Cameco lost 17.4% on the week, Denison lost 28.7%, Paladin lost 4.9%, Uranium One lost 17.8% and USEC gained 1.3%. The best weekly performer was Energy Fuels with a weekly gain of 31.0% while the worst weekly performer was Trigon Uranium with a weekly loss of 38.7%.
Going over to the Weekly Index for a look-see as to how the long term is doing, nothing new here. The Index remains below its negative sloping moving average line and the momentum indicator remains in its negative zone. Nothing to get all enthusiastic about. The long term rating remains BEARISH.
As for the intermediate term, although nothing has changed here things are seeming to get closer and closer to some resolution as to the future direction of the Index. The Index remains below its negative sloping moving average line, but not much below it. The two seem to be slowly converging. It would not take much of an Index move to breach that moving average line on the up side. The line would most likely also turn up on any move towards the upper resistance line of the box. For now, however, the moving average info is still negative. As for the momentum indicator, it is still in its negative zone but is sitting right on top of its very slightly positive sloping trigger line. Another day of negative Index move and the momentum will most likely move below its trigger. The volume indicator continues to trend in a lateral direction but is getting very close to its support and with any further negative markets could drop into new bear market lows. All in all, the intermediate term rating remains BEARISH.
On the short term, where we expect any change in direction to show up first, no change is still evident. The Index remains below its negative sloping moving average line although the line may be looked at as more horizontal than sloping downward. The momentum indicator continues to move lower below its negative sloping trigger line but is still above an up trend line from the early Oct lows. From a short term basis the volume indicator must be seen as a negative although it is more in a lateral trend from a little longer perspective. The very short term moving average line is increasing its downward move but is still just a hair above the short term moving average line. However, the basic indicators still give us a BEARISH short term rating.
As for the immediate direction of least resistance, that remains to the down side although not strongly so.
How are you doing with that relaxation, feet on the comforter, beer in hand, watching the idiot box. If you are a sports nut there sure are enough football games on TV. Continue to relax, the time WILL COME when these uranium stocks will once more turn around and head for higher ground BUT from what level, who knows? Wait for the turn.
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