After The Close, 31 Dec 2008
Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data
Open: 120.27
High: 127.76
Low: 116.65
Close: 123.96
Volume: 6678
Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 5 0 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.
It’s been a while since I last posted anything so on this last day of the year I thought I’d better get something posted. The chart today shows the uranium stock action over the past year. Not a pretty picture but it looks like the future may be a hell of a lot brighter.
The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed the last day of the year on the up side. The Index closed higher by 3.42 points or 2.84%. On the other hand, an average price gain for all the component stocks was 6.23% on the day. There were 36 winners, 12 losers and only 2 going nowhere. This is one of the better win/loss ratios in some time. As for those five largest stocks, Cameco gained 0.5%, Paladin gained 3.2%, Uranium One gained 2.3%, Uranium Participation lost 2.7% and USEC gained 14.8%. The best winner on this last day was Titan Uranium with a gain of 42.9% while the worst loser was Western Prospector with a loss of 32.1%.
As we see from the chart, it has been mostly a down hill slide for the uranium stocks but the slide stopped almost three months ago. Ever since, the Index has taken a lateral path within a well defined “box”. The momentum indicator, on the other hand, entered the oversold zone at the bottom of the slide and has been moving upward ever since. There are two ways of looking at the momentum action. The first is to go enthusiastic and take this action as an underlying strengthening in the internal Index action. The other way is to understand that when an Index (or stock price) has had a serious downside move a subsequent lateral Index move would, by the construction of the momentum values, would naturally move the Index higher, towards its neutral level. A lateral Index move is a sign of a neutral action so the momentum indicator would move upwards then.
There are many ways to read the charts. This is why I have taken the easy and simple way out and have the charts and indicators tell me what they are doing and with a proprietary technique (hey, we technicians all have our proprietary techniques) combine that information to get a rating for each investment or speculative time period. For the intermediate term we have the Index just above its intermediate term moving average line and the line just today has finally turned towards the up side. The momentum indicator is still in its negative zone but is heading upwards and is above its positive trigger line. As for the volume indicator, it is starting to show strength and is close to breaking into new three month high levels. For the first time in a long time the intermediate term rating has been upgraded to a BULLISH rating.
On the short term everything is also looking good. The Index is above its positive sloping moving average line and the momentum indicator is in its positive zone, above its positive trigger line. The daily volume action is starting to look good but still on the low` side. That could easily be due to the Christmas holiday’s and speculators staying home. All in all, the short term remains BULLISH.
As for the immediate direction of least resistance, well that would have to be to the up side. We have had three good upside days establishing a very short term trend and the Index is above its positive very short term moving average line. The aggressive Stochastic Oscillator has now entered its overbought zone which should give us some pause as reversals have a habit of occurring once the indicator enters its overbought zone. See the chart history for the past year. However, I’ll wait for a sign that the up side is no more before going negative here.
As you have noticed, I have not posted for some time. That’s a combination of relaxing and still not too comfortable with the laptop. I hope I can post better over the next week as I will be continuing away from home base longer than expected. Bear with me.
A VERY HAPPY AND PROSPEROUS NEW YEAR TO ALL
Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data
Open: 120.27
High: 127.76
Low: 116.65
Close: 123.96
Volume: 6678
Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 5 0 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.
It’s been a while since I last posted anything so on this last day of the year I thought I’d better get something posted. The chart today shows the uranium stock action over the past year. Not a pretty picture but it looks like the future may be a hell of a lot brighter.
The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed the last day of the year on the up side. The Index closed higher by 3.42 points or 2.84%. On the other hand, an average price gain for all the component stocks was 6.23% on the day. There were 36 winners, 12 losers and only 2 going nowhere. This is one of the better win/loss ratios in some time. As for those five largest stocks, Cameco gained 0.5%, Paladin gained 3.2%, Uranium One gained 2.3%, Uranium Participation lost 2.7% and USEC gained 14.8%. The best winner on this last day was Titan Uranium with a gain of 42.9% while the worst loser was Western Prospector with a loss of 32.1%.
As we see from the chart, it has been mostly a down hill slide for the uranium stocks but the slide stopped almost three months ago. Ever since, the Index has taken a lateral path within a well defined “box”. The momentum indicator, on the other hand, entered the oversold zone at the bottom of the slide and has been moving upward ever since. There are two ways of looking at the momentum action. The first is to go enthusiastic and take this action as an underlying strengthening in the internal Index action. The other way is to understand that when an Index (or stock price) has had a serious downside move a subsequent lateral Index move would, by the construction of the momentum values, would naturally move the Index higher, towards its neutral level. A lateral Index move is a sign of a neutral action so the momentum indicator would move upwards then.
There are many ways to read the charts. This is why I have taken the easy and simple way out and have the charts and indicators tell me what they are doing and with a proprietary technique (hey, we technicians all have our proprietary techniques) combine that information to get a rating for each investment or speculative time period. For the intermediate term we have the Index just above its intermediate term moving average line and the line just today has finally turned towards the up side. The momentum indicator is still in its negative zone but is heading upwards and is above its positive trigger line. As for the volume indicator, it is starting to show strength and is close to breaking into new three month high levels. For the first time in a long time the intermediate term rating has been upgraded to a BULLISH rating.
On the short term everything is also looking good. The Index is above its positive sloping moving average line and the momentum indicator is in its positive zone, above its positive trigger line. The daily volume action is starting to look good but still on the low` side. That could easily be due to the Christmas holiday’s and speculators staying home. All in all, the short term remains BULLISH.
As for the immediate direction of least resistance, well that would have to be to the up side. We have had three good upside days establishing a very short term trend and the Index is above its positive very short term moving average line. The aggressive Stochastic Oscillator has now entered its overbought zone which should give us some pause as reversals have a habit of occurring once the indicator enters its overbought zone. See the chart history for the past year. However, I’ll wait for a sign that the up side is no more before going negative here.
As you have noticed, I have not posted for some time. That’s a combination of relaxing and still not too comfortable with the laptop. I hope I can post better over the next week as I will be continuing away from home base longer than expected. Bear with me.
A VERY HAPPY AND PROSPEROUS NEW YEAR TO ALL
HI Merv,
ReplyDeleteHappy New Year, and thank you for all your work. Much appreciated. I was looking at the technical disaster that is my U portfolio (basket of 27), and became interested in its correlation to the XAU. That is until the end of October, whereas since the XAU has put in three higher lows and three higher highs!
I am wonding if your index by comparison might show the same divergence and the catch up in the U's or the breakdown in the XAU that should or could be coming?
Hopefully you understand what I mean. Comparitively to me it looks like we could be in for a move here back up to the current 200 DMA.
I would be interested in your analysis/opinion if you are so inclined to indulge me.
Thanks for everything,
BF
Hi Merv,
ReplyDeleteThanks for all your work & Happy New Year.
Klaus W.
Anonymous
ReplyDeleteI would not place any faith in a comparison to the gold performance versus uranium. The two are too different and move to their own criteria.
See my week-end commentary to be posted during the week-end.
where you come from!
ReplyDeleteI will pass on your article introduced to my other friends, because really good!
ReplyDeleteSee you in these things, I think, I started feeling good!
ReplyDeleteSports Net