After The Close, 01 Dec 2008
Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data
Open: 115.41
High: 117.07
Low: 105.59
Close: 108.03
Volume: 5047
Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.
What’s that song again, “What a Difference a Day Makes ---“. Oh well, we never expect perfection from the market (or from the analysis either). I just go where the indicators tell me and most of the time they are right. Sometimes they are not. With Bush ready to retire, everything wrong that happens now must be Obama’s fault, or will the media not allow that to happen?
The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed lower today by 8.26 points or 7.10%. The average stock, however, only lost 4.0%. There were 11 winners, 35 losers and 4 going nowhere. Of the five largest stocks all were losers. Cameco lost 9.5%, Denison lost 5.9%, Paladin lost 8.8%, Uranium One lost 7.0% and USEC lost 11.2%. The best performer on the day was Nuinsco Resources with a gain of 14.3% while the worst performer was Trigon Uranium with a loss of 29.0%.
I have occasionally explained the difference between the methods used to calculate the Weekly and the Daily Indices, they are different. With new readers of these commentaries maybe it’s time to very briefly once more state the differences and which has what advantage. The Daily Index is calculated based upon an average of prices (open, high, low and close), each separately. A factor is applied so as to have continuity when changing stocks with different price levels. This is very much like the method used to calculate the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The Weekly Index is based upon the overall average weekly performance of the component stocks. The Daily method gives the advantage towards the higher priced stocks while the Weekly method gives the advantage to the lowest priced stocks. When we have a day like today when the two methods differ somewhat (7.1% versus 4.0%) we can make a good educated guess that it was the higher priced stocks making the greater negative moves while the lower priced stocks declined less.
The Daily Index seems to be reacting off the intermediate term moving average line but other than that nothing new has occurred in the intermediate term versus the week-end summary. The intermediate term rating remains BEARISH.
On the short term there were changes due to the sharp reversal. The Index closed just a shade below its short term moving average line and the line has just turned towards the down side. The short term momentum indicator has once more dropped below its neutral line into the negative zone. It also moved below its trigger line although the trigger still remains pointing upward. The volume indicator continues to move in a basic lateral path. With the indicators turning negative we are back to a BEARISH short term rating again.
As for the direction of least resistance, that is now in the downward direction with the Stochastic Oscillator moving below its overbought level and the Index dropping below its now negative moving average line.
Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data
Open: 115.41
High: 117.07
Low: 105.59
Close: 108.03
Volume: 5047
Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.
What’s that song again, “What a Difference a Day Makes ---“. Oh well, we never expect perfection from the market (or from the analysis either). I just go where the indicators tell me and most of the time they are right. Sometimes they are not. With Bush ready to retire, everything wrong that happens now must be Obama’s fault, or will the media not allow that to happen?
The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed lower today by 8.26 points or 7.10%. The average stock, however, only lost 4.0%. There were 11 winners, 35 losers and 4 going nowhere. Of the five largest stocks all were losers. Cameco lost 9.5%, Denison lost 5.9%, Paladin lost 8.8%, Uranium One lost 7.0% and USEC lost 11.2%. The best performer on the day was Nuinsco Resources with a gain of 14.3% while the worst performer was Trigon Uranium with a loss of 29.0%.
I have occasionally explained the difference between the methods used to calculate the Weekly and the Daily Indices, they are different. With new readers of these commentaries maybe it’s time to very briefly once more state the differences and which has what advantage. The Daily Index is calculated based upon an average of prices (open, high, low and close), each separately. A factor is applied so as to have continuity when changing stocks with different price levels. This is very much like the method used to calculate the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The Weekly Index is based upon the overall average weekly performance of the component stocks. The Daily method gives the advantage towards the higher priced stocks while the Weekly method gives the advantage to the lowest priced stocks. When we have a day like today when the two methods differ somewhat (7.1% versus 4.0%) we can make a good educated guess that it was the higher priced stocks making the greater negative moves while the lower priced stocks declined less.
The Daily Index seems to be reacting off the intermediate term moving average line but other than that nothing new has occurred in the intermediate term versus the week-end summary. The intermediate term rating remains BEARISH.
On the short term there were changes due to the sharp reversal. The Index closed just a shade below its short term moving average line and the line has just turned towards the down side. The short term momentum indicator has once more dropped below its neutral line into the negative zone. It also moved below its trigger line although the trigger still remains pointing upward. The volume indicator continues to move in a basic lateral path. With the indicators turning negative we are back to a BEARISH short term rating again.
As for the direction of least resistance, that is now in the downward direction with the Stochastic Oscillator moving below its overbought level and the Index dropping below its now negative moving average line.
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