24 November 2008

Merv's Daily Commentary, 24 Nov 2008


After The Close, 24 Nov 2008

Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data

Open: 100.70
High: 113.76
Low: 98.68
Close: 110.60
Volume: 7950

Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.

Things seem to be looking up. A good gain on the day may bring out more speculators and continue the rally. However, we still have a little ways to go before the ratings really change to confirm a new move. In the mean time, let’s enjoy the up side while it’s here.

The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed higher by 11.28 points or 11.36%. There were 36 winners, 10 losers and 4 going nowhere. As for the five largest stocks, they were all into double digit gains (or they would have been if I rounded the gains to the nearest whole number). Cameco gained 17.4%, Denison gained 9.8% (or 10% as a whole number), Paladin gained 11.3%, Uranium One gained 12.6% and USEC gained 10.6%. We had two identical best winners of the day. Both Mega Uranium and Ur Uranium gained 46.8% while the worst loser was Western Prospector with a loss of 13.0%.

Although things are starting to look brighter on the intermediate term with the indicators continuing to move towards the positive they still have not moved enough to improve the rating. The momentum indicator is showing greater strength than the price or volume. On today’s close the momentum indicator has just moved very slightly above its full highest level during the box period. This may be hinting that the box will be breached during this rally, on the up side. The rating, however, remains BEARISH. I look for improvement shortly.

On the short term this is where the rating changes should normally be seen first. The Index closed today just above its short term moving average line but the line slope remains just barely negative. The momentum indicator is moving upward fast but is still in its negative zone, above its positive sloping trigger line. The daily volume has perked up and is above its average volume for the past 50 days. The volume indicator has moved above its trigger line but the line is still sloping downward. All in all, the short term rating can once more be improved to the + NEUTRAL level, just one notch shy of a full bull.

As for the immediate term direction of least resistance, what can I say, that must be to the up side.

It is very early in the game to declare a new bull market in uranium stocks but it now is starting to look like it’s heading in that direction. Let’s hope for further gains in the days ahead.

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