After The Close, 11 Nov 2008
Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data
Open: 115.89
Hugh: 118.69
Low: 108.27
Close: 113.24
Volume: 6452
Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.
Once more down but not yet out. We’re still in that box and as long as we are we can only speculate the final break-out, up or down. Going back to the P&F chart shown here “after the break, 23 Oct 2008” the break-out points per the P&F are the 90 price for a down side break and the 140 level for an upside break. We already have a P&F projection to 50 so the down side may have the upper hand but never assume anything, wait for the break to happen.
The indicator displayed with the Index today is the MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence). It is probably one of the most popular momentum indicators although I have problems with it for the work that I do. Most analysts are, however, quite happy with it. One can look at it from the same angle one looks at the RSI indicator. Unfortunately, from my perspective, the major problem with the MACD is that the parameters of the indicator are pre-set. When used it is not quite a short term indicator nor an intermediate term one but somewhere in between. My MOM(entum) indicators used in the weekly tables of technical information are modifications on the MACD applicable to specific investment time periods. For more info on the MACD (or the RSI) I would recommend going to www.stockcharts.com. They have an excellent section defining various technical indicators and how to use them.
The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed lower by 4.21 points or 3.58%. There were 10 winners, 35 losers and 5 going nowhere (not a win/loss ratio I like to see). It was not a total loss for the five largest stocks, one was positive. Cameco lost 5.8%, Denison lost 3.5%, Paladin lost 2.0%, Uranium One lost 12.1% and the winner is USEC with a gain of 0.5%. The best winner on the day was Strateco with a gain of 12% while the worst loser on the day was Trigon Uranium with a loss of 20.0%.
On the intermediate term there was one slight change in the indicators. Both the momentum (RSI) and volume indicators have now dropped below their trigger lines. The volume trigger had been sloping negatively and remains that way. The momentum trigger was sloping upwards but has not turned slightly downwards. With the Index remaining below its negative moving average line and the momentum indicator remaining in its negative zone, all this tells me the rating must remain BEARISH.
On the short term, the Index has now moved below its moving average line. The moving average was sloping gently upwards but today went into a lateral direction, neither up nor down. This is preparatory to heading lower. The momentum indicator continues in its negative zone and below its negative trigger line. The slight increasing daily volume these past couple of negative days is also not a good sign. The short term rating is now back to a full BEARISH rating.
As for the immediate direction of least resistance, that would most likely be continuing to the down side. The very short term moving average has turned downward but has not yet crossed below the short term average. The Stochastic Oscillator continues to plunge lower and is very, very close to entering its oversold zone. Not much positive here.
The waiting game continues.
Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data
Open: 115.89
Hugh: 118.69
Low: 108.27
Close: 113.24
Volume: 6452
Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.
Once more down but not yet out. We’re still in that box and as long as we are we can only speculate the final break-out, up or down. Going back to the P&F chart shown here “after the break, 23 Oct 2008” the break-out points per the P&F are the 90 price for a down side break and the 140 level for an upside break. We already have a P&F projection to 50 so the down side may have the upper hand but never assume anything, wait for the break to happen.
The indicator displayed with the Index today is the MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence). It is probably one of the most popular momentum indicators although I have problems with it for the work that I do. Most analysts are, however, quite happy with it. One can look at it from the same angle one looks at the RSI indicator. Unfortunately, from my perspective, the major problem with the MACD is that the parameters of the indicator are pre-set. When used it is not quite a short term indicator nor an intermediate term one but somewhere in between. My MOM(entum) indicators used in the weekly tables of technical information are modifications on the MACD applicable to specific investment time periods. For more info on the MACD (or the RSI) I would recommend going to www.stockcharts.com. They have an excellent section defining various technical indicators and how to use them.
The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed lower by 4.21 points or 3.58%. There were 10 winners, 35 losers and 5 going nowhere (not a win/loss ratio I like to see). It was not a total loss for the five largest stocks, one was positive. Cameco lost 5.8%, Denison lost 3.5%, Paladin lost 2.0%, Uranium One lost 12.1% and the winner is USEC with a gain of 0.5%. The best winner on the day was Strateco with a gain of 12% while the worst loser on the day was Trigon Uranium with a loss of 20.0%.
On the intermediate term there was one slight change in the indicators. Both the momentum (RSI) and volume indicators have now dropped below their trigger lines. The volume trigger had been sloping negatively and remains that way. The momentum trigger was sloping upwards but has not turned slightly downwards. With the Index remaining below its negative moving average line and the momentum indicator remaining in its negative zone, all this tells me the rating must remain BEARISH.
On the short term, the Index has now moved below its moving average line. The moving average was sloping gently upwards but today went into a lateral direction, neither up nor down. This is preparatory to heading lower. The momentum indicator continues in its negative zone and below its negative trigger line. The slight increasing daily volume these past couple of negative days is also not a good sign. The short term rating is now back to a full BEARISH rating.
As for the immediate direction of least resistance, that would most likely be continuing to the down side. The very short term moving average has turned downward but has not yet crossed below the short term average. The Stochastic Oscillator continues to plunge lower and is very, very close to entering its oversold zone. Not much positive here.
The waiting game continues.
No comments:
Post a Comment