After The Close, 03 Nov 2008
Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data
Open: 117.66
Hugh: 123.64
Low: 112.76
Close: 118.76
Volume: 6155
Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.
I’ve been on the move and wasn’t able to get the week-end commentary done but looking at Friday’s action, nothing much happened on Friday to change the commentary and ratings from the previous days. The market for uranium stocks was ahead for another day but unfortunately the momentum seems to be trying up. There just might be a few down days ahead. Where they will go, should they actually come, is anyone’s guess but for now I will stick with that box pattern. Until the box is breached, the primary trend is most likely to the lateral direction. However, let’s see where we are with the indicators and charts.
The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed higher for the fifth day in a row. The Index gained 2.05 points or 1.75%. There were 28 winners, 15 losers and 7 that couldn’t make up their minds. Of the five largest stocks Cameco lost 0.6%, Denison gained 5.2%, Paladin gained 11.6%, Uranium One gained 42.2% and was the best performer on the day and USEC gained 1.5%. The worst performer on the day was Trigon Uranium with a loss of 23.1%.
The long term has been little changed for many months. Everything is still negative and the rating remains BEARISH.
On the intermediate term the Index remains below its negative sloping moving average line and the momentum indicator remains in its negative zone but above its positive trigger line. We can see the momentum leveling off these past few days. Now it’s a case of will it go full negative or regroup and get on the up path again. The volume indicator continues to move higher and is now slightly above its trigger line with the trigger just turning to the up side. Although there are some hopeful indications there is still not enough to start improving the rating. The intermediate term rating remains BEARISH.
On the short term side things continue to look bright. The Index remains above its positive moving average line and the momentum indicator remains above its positive trigger line although still slightly below its neutral line in the negative zone. The short term momentum indicator is just about at the rally location from where previous rallies had petered out so we have to be cautious at this point. Another reasonable up day and the momentum may actually go into its positive zone BUT should the Index close lower that just might be the end of the rally and the down side might just take over again. For now the short term rating remains BULLISH.
As for the immediate direction of least resistance, well the Stochastic Oscillator had entered its overbought zone on Friday and is leveling off. It is still in its overbought zone but may not stay there long. The very short term moving average line is on the rise and has crossed the short term line on the up side. This is another confirmation of the short term but also indicates that the immediate term is positive. Unfortunately we are still inside that box. Because of that, and more importantly because the Index seems to be leveling of or is in a turning process I will go with the lateral or sideways direction for today.
We have had some very good movers in the uranium stocks lately. The big question is, will they hold, continue or reverse? That’s for another day but as the indicators suggest, only the short term is in a rally mode, the other time periods have not yet turned.
Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data
Open: 117.66
Hugh: 123.64
Low: 112.76
Close: 118.76
Volume: 6155
Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.
I’ve been on the move and wasn’t able to get the week-end commentary done but looking at Friday’s action, nothing much happened on Friday to change the commentary and ratings from the previous days. The market for uranium stocks was ahead for another day but unfortunately the momentum seems to be trying up. There just might be a few down days ahead. Where they will go, should they actually come, is anyone’s guess but for now I will stick with that box pattern. Until the box is breached, the primary trend is most likely to the lateral direction. However, let’s see where we are with the indicators and charts.
The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed higher for the fifth day in a row. The Index gained 2.05 points or 1.75%. There were 28 winners, 15 losers and 7 that couldn’t make up their minds. Of the five largest stocks Cameco lost 0.6%, Denison gained 5.2%, Paladin gained 11.6%, Uranium One gained 42.2% and was the best performer on the day and USEC gained 1.5%. The worst performer on the day was Trigon Uranium with a loss of 23.1%.
The long term has been little changed for many months. Everything is still negative and the rating remains BEARISH.
On the intermediate term the Index remains below its negative sloping moving average line and the momentum indicator remains in its negative zone but above its positive trigger line. We can see the momentum leveling off these past few days. Now it’s a case of will it go full negative or regroup and get on the up path again. The volume indicator continues to move higher and is now slightly above its trigger line with the trigger just turning to the up side. Although there are some hopeful indications there is still not enough to start improving the rating. The intermediate term rating remains BEARISH.
On the short term side things continue to look bright. The Index remains above its positive moving average line and the momentum indicator remains above its positive trigger line although still slightly below its neutral line in the negative zone. The short term momentum indicator is just about at the rally location from where previous rallies had petered out so we have to be cautious at this point. Another reasonable up day and the momentum may actually go into its positive zone BUT should the Index close lower that just might be the end of the rally and the down side might just take over again. For now the short term rating remains BULLISH.
As for the immediate direction of least resistance, well the Stochastic Oscillator had entered its overbought zone on Friday and is leveling off. It is still in its overbought zone but may not stay there long. The very short term moving average line is on the rise and has crossed the short term line on the up side. This is another confirmation of the short term but also indicates that the immediate term is positive. Unfortunately we are still inside that box. Because of that, and more importantly because the Index seems to be leveling of or is in a turning process I will go with the lateral or sideways direction for today.
We have had some very good movers in the uranium stocks lately. The big question is, will they hold, continue or reverse? That’s for another day but as the indicators suggest, only the short term is in a rally mode, the other time periods have not yet turned.
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