20 October 2008

Merv's Daily Commentary, 20 Oct 2008


After The Close, 20 Oct 2008

Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data

Open: 112.37
Hugh: 119.50
Low: 108.14
Close: 116.85
Volume: 5020

Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.

Well, the market was looking interesting today. That’s two days in a row on the up side. We haven’t had that happen for a month now. However, it’s not yet time to rejoice as the Index is still trapped within that box pattern and we need to break out of the box to really hope for a new rally of significance.

The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed up 8.70 points or 8.04%. There were 34 winners, 10 losers and 6 going nowhere. Of the five largest stocks all were on the up side. Cameco gained 10.8%, Denison gained 7.0%, Paladin gained 10.6%, Uranium One gained 14.1% and USEC gained 6.1%. The best daily performer was Terra Ventures with a gain of 38.3% while the worst daily performer was Western Prospector with a loss of 15.3%.

Nothing new has happened in the intermediate term. The Index is still below a negative moving average and the momentum remains inside its negative zone but above its positive trigger line. The rating remains BEARISH.

On the short term we are improving a little. The Index closed above its short term moving average line but the line slope remains negative. The momentum indicator continues to move higher after breaking above its oversold line. It remains in the negative zone but above its positive trigger line. With this we have improved the rating although not up to the bull level. The short term rating is now + NEUTRAL.

As for the immediate direction of least resistance, that would be to the up side. The Stochastic Oscillator is back on the up side above its positive trigger line but still slightly below its neutral line. The Index is above its very short term moving average line and the line has turned upwards. The only cautionary indicator is that resistance upper box line.

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