Technically Uranium with Merv

Merv's Weekly Uranium Commentary 22 Jan 2012

2012-01-22T11:48:00.003-05:00

Merv’s Weekly Uranium Review
for week ending 20 January 2012

Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data for Friday 20 Jan 2012

Open: 155.10
High: 156.83
Low: 152.06
Close: 154.62
Volume: 5002

Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.

Note that additional charts of the Indices were posted earlier and should be viewed during this commentary.

Maybe I should stop posting all together. No sooner did I decide to retire and only post occasionally the uranium stocks decided to take off on a good old fashioned bull run. Since the low just after Christmas (on Dec 28th) the Daily Uranium Index has advanced almost 26% to the Friday close. Most of that advance has been in the past two weeks with a 7% rise the previous week and a 12% rise this week. The Weekly Index gained 36.9% during this same period. Gee – if I stay retired maybe we will see another 100% move very soon? As they say, timing is everything.

Although it has been a few weeks since the last post let’s pretend that we never left and go right into the normal week-end routine. As most readers already understand, the two Indices tell us a very similar story but from two different aspects. The Weekly Index focuses on the performance of the low priced (speculative) stocks while the Daily Index focuses on the high priced (quality) stocks. Although their performances are similar there are some subtle differences, which I will try to remember to highlight as I go through the routine.

The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed on Friday with a daily decline of 0.65 points or 0.42%. There were 18 daily winners, 27 losers and 5 stocks hiding somewhere in the bushes. Cameco gained 0.3% on the day, Denison gained 3.2%, Paladin lost 2.6%, Uranium One lost 2.5% and Uranium Participation gained 0.5%. The best daily winner was Vena with a gain of 19.0% while the loser of the day was Uracan with a loss of 15.0%. Market Vectors Uranium + Nuclear Energy ETF gained 0.2% while Global X Uranium ETF lost 1.8%.

For the full week the Merv’s Weekly Uranium Index gained 839.66 points or 18.3% (the Daily Index rose 11.9% on the week). As we see it has been the speculative stocks that have really been moving lately. There were 49 weekly winners, zero weekly losers and one stock hiding somewhere. Cameco gained 12.8% during the week, Denison gained 21.7%, Paladin gained 20.4%, Uranium One gained 17.3% and Uranium Participation gained 5.6%. The best weekly winner was Vena with a weekly gain of 86.5% while the worst weekly performer was East Asia which closed the week with a zero gain or loss. Market Vectors Uranium + Nuclear Energy ETF gained 7.5% and Global X Uranium ETF gained 13.5%.

LONG TERM

Looking at the long term (weekly) charts we see a slight difference in the performance of the two Indices. The Daily Index had shown greater weakness than the Weekly Index by moving below its previous 2010 low while the Weekly Index made a valid double bottom versus its 2010 low. Usually one would call a double bottom a valid one when the Index moves above its high level in between the two lows BUT that high is so far away that one may take this as an exceptional exception to the rule.

Trend: Both Indices have moved above their long term moving average lines but only the Weekly Index moving average line has already turned to the up side. The Daily Index long term moving average line is in its turning process but not quite there yet.

Strength: The long term momentum indicators for both Indices are on the rise but closed the week just below their neutral levels still slightly in the negative zones. Both indicators are, however, above their respective positive sloping trigger lines.

Volume: The Daily Index volume indicator (I have no volume for the Weekly Index) is now at a four month high and above its positive sloping trigger line.

Putting all that together I just can’t quite get a full bullish rating yet for the long term. The resulting ratings for both Indices is a + NEUTRAL rating, one level below a full bull.

INTERMEDIATE TERM

Both Indices have provided us with an intermediate term double bottom pattern (early Oct versus late Dec), however, only the Weekly Index has confirmed the pattern by moving above its high in late Oct. That double bottom projects the Weekly Index to the 6040 level, which is not that far away.

Trend: We see on a previously posted chart that the Daily Index made a very nice break above its intermediate term down trend line (which was also the upper resistance line in a downward sloping channel). The Daily Index is also above its positive sloping intermediate term moving average line.

Strength: The intermediate term momentum indicator has now moved into its positive zone and remains above its positive sloping trigger line.

Volume: The volume indicator continues to show strength and is above its positive sloping trigger line.

On the Intermediate term the rating is now BULLISH. This is further confirmed by the short term moving average line moving above the intermediate term line.

SHORT TERM

The short term move has been pretty strong this time, stronger than the move in October. The question is “will it last?). I’ll try to answer that question at the end of this commentary.

Trend: The Daily Index is above its positive sloping short term moving average line. The recent trend has been very strong and one can expect some rest period ahead.

Strength: The short term momentum indicator has been on the rise for three weeks now and had entered its overbought zone the other day. It seemed to have reversed direction and closed on Friday just a hair below its overbought line. However, it is still above its positive sloping trigger line.

Volume: The daily volume action has finally started to show some life recently. One lesson in volume analysis has to do with the increase in volume during a price advance. It is bullish when volume is increasing as the advance in price is taking place. However, one thing to watch out for is heavy relative volume action after the price has gone through a significant advance. Such heavy volume suggests that the advance is about to stall. This is what we are seeing here in the volume action this past week. The stall may be temporary or longer term, no one can tell at this point but a stall of some sort is about to happen.

For now the short term rating remains BULLISH, confirmed by the very short term moving average line remaining above the short term line.

WHAT TO DO?

It looks like we may be at an early period of a new bull market in uranium stocks. The operative word here is “looks like”. This is the time that one can make the greatest profits in stocks but at the same time it is the most risky time to be jumping in. We get several bottoms and starts of new bull moves before we finally get the real one. Is this the real one or just one of many false starts? One cannot really tell so you make your choices and takes your chances. If you should decide to jump in at this time then be sure you have an aggressive exit strategy just in case this is a false start. Holding stock that is not moving, or worse, that is moving lower is not the way to capital gains. It’s better to be holding the cash waiting for the right move and possibly losing a little potential profit in exchange for lower risk. You know your own investment or speculative criteria.

Merv's Weekly Uranium Indices 21 Jan 2012

2012-01-21T10:57:00.003-05:00

WATCH FOR THE WEEKLY COMMENTARY SOMETIMES LATER THIS WEEK-END.

Merv's Weekly Uranium Table 21 Jan 2012

2012-01-21T10:55:00.001-05:00

Merv's Daily Uranium Index 20 Jan 2012

2012-01-20T10:11:00.003-05:00

Things seem to be finally looking better for uranium stocks. Maybe I will post a normal week-end commentary and charts this week-end. Stay tuned.

Merv

TEMPORARY HIATUS

2012-01-19T10:03:00.001-05:00

This is a difficult post for me. Over the past few years I have had the privilege of posting comments and analysis relative to the technical market activities of North American uranium stocks. Unfortunately, things have come into focus recently that cause me to hang up the shingles and finally, after over 45 years following the markets, retire and take some relaxation time with the family. I had previously packed up my Aerospace Consulting business and now am packing up the market guru business.

This is not the end. I hope in some manner to continue commentaries and stock analysis but not on any kind of regular basis. Where I am going with this end of my activities I don’t know at this time but I thought I should let my uranium followers know that regular posting is not in the cards for the future.

I expect to be keeping my Uranium Indices and Weekly Tables up to date for the foreseeable future and may make some use of them from time to time.

My thanks and appreciation to all those who have followed my commentaries and to the many who have provided favorable (and occasionally, unfavorable) comments on the postings.

Merv Burak

Merv's Weekly Uranium Indices 8 Jan 2012

2012-01-08T13:01:00.001-05:00

Merv's Weekly Uranium Table 8 Jan 2012

2012-01-08T13:00:00.001-05:00

Merv's Weekly Uranium Commentary 18 Dec 2011

2011-12-18T16:23:00.003-05:00

Merv’s Weekly Uranium Review
for week ending 16 December 2011

Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data for Friday 16 Dec 2011

Open: 127.83
High: 130.67
Low: 125.76
Close: 127.53
Volume: 5115

Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.

Note that additional charts of the Indices were posted earlier and should be viewed during this commentary.

Well, it’s not a total disaster yet. The Daily Index remains above its previous Oct low of 118 so I guess that’s a good thing. The action also remains within that downward sloping channel shown here a couple of weeks back. I hope that the Index will not move to the lower support line as that requires a move to the 2008 low of 90 so, one suspects that eventually the breaking of the upper resistance line is the most likely direction once the Index wants to get out of the channel.

The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed on Friday with a daily loss of 0.27 points or 0.21%. There were 15 daily winners, 23 losers and 12 stocks needing a blood transfusion. Cameco lost 0.6%, Denison gained 2.9%, Paladin lost 3.7%, Uranium One gained 0.9% and Uranium Participation gained 0.7%. The best daily winner was East Asia with a gain of 17.8% while the loser of the day was Pitchstone with a loss of 15.7%. Market Vectors Uranium + Nuclear Energy ETF lost 0.4% while Global X Uranium ETF needed a transfusion.

As for the full week the Merv’s Weekly Uranium Index lost 343.21 points or 7.92% (the Daily lost 6.05% on the week). There were only 3 weekly winners, 44 losers and 3 stocks needing a transfusion. Cameco lost 5.5%, Denison lost 3.4%, Paladin lost 9.9%, Uranium One lost 10.0% and Uranium Participation lost 3.5%. The best weekly winner was Formation Metals with a weekly gain of 7.7% while the loser of the bunch was East Asia with a weekly loss of 27.4% just edging out Virginia Energy which lost 27.3%. Market Vectors Uranium + Nuclear Energy ETF lost 5.8% while Global X Uranium ETF lost 6.8%.

LONG TERM

Suffice it to say that there is still nothing good to say about the long term indicators or ratings. Both the Daily and Weekly Uranium Indices are still rated as BEARISH at the Friday close.

INTERMEDIATE TERM

Trend: The Daily Index continues to trade below its negatively sloping intermediate term moving average line.

Strength: The intermediate term momentum indicator remains below its neutral line and below its negatively sloping trigger line. There is a very slight potential positive divergence in the indicator to give us some grasp at good news. We’ll see if anything comes off it.

Volume: The volume indicator continues to confirm the price action by closing below recent lows and below its negative sloping trigger line.

For the intermediate term the rating, at the Friday close, remains BEARISH. This is confirmed by the short term moving average line remaining below the intermediate term line.

SHORT TERM

Trend: The short term isn’t any brighter than the other periods. The past week’s action remained below the short term moving average line and the line slope remains pointing downward.

Strength: The short term momentum indicator remains in its negative zone below its negative trigger line. Here, that slight positive divergence is a little more noticeable so maybe a rally or something is in store just ahead.

Volume: The daily volume action remains low with the highest volume in several weeks was on Friday, a down day for the Daily Index.

At the Friday close the short term rating remains BEARISH. This is confirmed by the very short term moving average line.

Do I dare guess what the immediate future holds? Here goes, I am looking for some upside action ahead. The Stochastic Oscillator is in its oversold zone and has leveled off, hopefully in preparation for some upside move.

The Christmas season is upon us and I am taking some time off. I don’t expect to be posting for the next couple of weeks, but who knows? If something really interesting should happen and I happen to be watching the news, maybe I might post but in the mean time I will be relaxing.

Here’s wishing all a VERY MERRY CHRISTMAS and a profitable NEW YEAR.

Merv's Weekly Uranium Indices 18 Dec 2011

2011-12-18T10:54:00.003-05:00

Merv's Weekly Uranium Table 18 Dec 2011

2011-12-18T10:53:00.002-05:00

Merv's Weekly Uranium Commentary 11 Dec 2011

2011-12-11T13:37:00.003-05:00

Merv’s Weekly Uranium Review
for week ending 9 December 2011

Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data for Friday 9 Dec 2011

Open: 133.76
High: 136.83
Low: 132.78
Close: 135.74
Volume: 2302

Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.

Note that additional charts of the Indices were posted earlier and should be viewed during this commentary.

It could get very frustrating waiting for the next bull market in uranium stocks to get started. I thought I’d see where we have been with these stocks and try to see if we can assess what the future potential could be. My Weekly Index started in Jan 3 of 2003 so that is the furthest back I can go.

From the start of the Weekly Index to its all time high in early 2007 the Index gained 13,510% (yes, there is no period in that number). The 2007/2008 bear market took this Index down 87%. We then had an elongated bull move to the early 2011 high of 517% followed by another bear of 63%, where we are today. Boy, what a roller coaster. Although we are still 130% ahead of the 2008 low we still need another 235% move from here to get back to our previous high. Of course this is an average figure of all the 50 component stocks so many will still do much better while a few will not do as well. The ones not doing as well will probably be the biggies while the more speculative stocks will out perform.

So much for today’s space filler.

Getting back to what’s happening. Last week I showed a couple of charts showing the down trending channel that the Daily Index is trapped inside and the potential reverse head and shoulder pattern developing. Today we see another pattern. This is one of my Merv’s FAN Principle patterns. This one I call the Bullish Decelerating FAN Lines. It’s bullish because the completion of the pattern results in a new bull market. It’s decelerating because the move to lower levels is looking less and less likely as the pattern progresses. The simple criteria for THIS pattern (I have slightly different criteria for other FAN Principle patterns). The breaking of the first FAN trend line means nothing. The breaking of the second FAN trend line suggests the end of the bear trend and the beginning of the bull move. The breaking of the third FAN trend line is confirmation of the new bull move. At the present time we have the second FAN trend line broken while the third is yet to come. So, according to this pattern we are in a new bull market BUT not yet fully confirmed.

Hey, it’s always great to have some good news.

The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed on Friday with a gain of 2.60 points or 1.95%. There were 26 daily winners, 13 losers and 11 stocks just twirling their fingers. Cameco gained 2.1%, Denison gained 2.1%, Paladin gained 2.4%, Uranium One lost 0.4% and Uranium Participation was just sitting there twirling its fingers and whistling in the wind. The best daily winner was Crosshair with a daily gain of 16.7% while the loser of the day was Pitchstone with a loss of 4.8%. Market Vectors Uranium + Nuclear Energy ETF gained 2.1% as did Global X Uranium ETF.

For the full week the Merv’s Weekly Uranium Index lost 127.39 points or 2.86% (the Daily lost 1.67% on the week). As we see the speculative stocks took the bigger weekly hit this past week. There were 12 weekly winners, 32 weekly losers and 6 stocks sitting there twirling their fingers and whistling in the wind. Cameco lost 3.0% on the week, Denison lost 2.0%, Paladin broke even, Uranium One gained 1.7% and Uranium Participation gained 0.2%. The best weekly winner was #308 Corp. with a gain of 21.2% while the loser of the week was Wealth Minerals with a loss of 17.1%. Market Vectors Uranium + Nuclear Energy ETF lost 0.3% on the week while Global X Uranium ETF lost 0.8%.

LONG TERM

Nothing much has changed from the long term perspective. Although it looks like the Indices and momentum indicators are in a stabilizing mode it will still take some more time before we can expect any long term upgrade in their performances. So, from a long term stand point I wouldn’t go into the details but say that for both Indices the long term rating, at the Friday close, remains BEARISH.

INTERMEDIATE TERM

Although there is very little change in the intermediate term indicators things are getting close so let’s see where we are.

Trend: The Daily Index is trading just below its intermediate term moving average line and the line slope continues to the down side although the slope is getting less and less negative.

Strength: The intermediate term momentum indicator continues to strengthen but still remains in its negative zone. It is, however, once more above its trigger line and the trigger is pointing upwards.

Volume: The volume indicator continues to move in a basic lateral direction but has now crossed above its trigger line and the trigger has turned to the up side.

Despite the positive volume indicator we still get a BEARISH rating at the Friday close. This rating is confirmed by the short term moving average line remaining below the intermediate term line.

SHORT TERM

Trend: The Friday close was just above the short term moving average line with the line slope turning upwards.

Strength: The short term momentum indicator remains just below its neutral line in its negative zone and just below its negative sloping trigger line.

Volume: The daily volume action continues to be low suggesting that the major speculators are not yet enamored with the uranium stocks.

We need just a little more strength in the momentum indicator before we can go bullish. For now the short term rating, at the Friday close, is + NEUTRAL. The very short term moving average line remains above the short term line suggesting that maybe the bull is only another day away.

As for the immediate direction of least resistance, it looks like the pressure is towards the up side with the Friday action ending upward and the Stochastic Oscillator turning towards the up side, although not fully yet.

Merv's Weekly Uranium Indices 11 Dec 2011

2011-12-11T08:26:00.002-05:00

Merv's Weekly Uranium Table 11 Dec 2011

2011-12-11T08:25:00.001-05:00

Merv's Weeklt Uranium Commentary 2 Dec 2011

2011-12-04T15:23:00.002-05:00

Merv’s Weekly Uranium Review
for week ending 2 December 2011

Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data for Friday 2 Dec 2011

Open: 139.25
High: 141.22
Low: 136.74
Close: 138.04
Volume: 2336

Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.

Note that additional charts of the Indices were posted earlier and should be viewed during this commentary.

The week started good but sort of fizzled out near the end. Still, weekly Index gains were pretty good and no need to complain. Is this the start of another bull move attempt? Well it just might be. Today, I show both the intermediate and short term charts here (the long term were posted earlier). One can draw so many lines on one chart that it just got too confusing so the various lines were split between the two charts, where most appropriate.

Looking at the intermediate term chart we have a well defined down trending channel that has defined the trend since just after the March tsunami plunge. Other than the normal indicators this channel seems to be the first pattern to overcome. That would come at about the 150 level.

We have two resistance lines on the intermediate term chart. One at the 140 level seems to be on the verge of being overcome. The other at the 160 level is the more serious one. Before this one is overcome we would have already crossed above the long term moving average line. Moving through the 160 line itself just might represent the time when the long term moving average turns to the up side.

Going to the short term chart answers the question if we are about to reverse the bear trend. We have a well defined reverse head and shoulder pattern shown on this chart. I like two see at least two things happening to confirm in my mind that we are looking at reverse head and shoulder in the development stage. First, I like to see that the distance from the start of the bear to the bottom of the head is at least two times the distance from the neckline to the head bottom. Here, it’s multiple times that. The next is I like to see a positive divergence at the head. This we have. Also the momentum continues to improve as the pattern unfolds from the head. All this points to a reverse head and shoulder pattern developing with confirmation at the neckline break, which will be at about the 150-155 level. On the break the pattern will most likely project this move to the 192 level.

So much for the charts, let’s get back to our usual analysis.

The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed on Friday with a gain of 0.71 points or 0.51%. There were 21 winners, 16 losers and 13 stocks bumming around. Cameco gained 1.8% on the day, Denison gained 2.1%, Paladin was just bumming around, Uranium One gained 0.9% and Uranium Participation was a loser by 0.2%. The best winner of the day was Azimut with a gain of 14.3% while the loser of the day was JNR with a loss of 6.7%. Market Vectors Uranium + Nuclear Energy ETF lost 0.4% while Global X Uranium ETF lost 0.3%.

For the full week the Merv’s Weekly Uranium Index gained 197.33 points or 4.63% (the Daily Index gained 7.74% on the week). It was a “quality” week. There were 30 weekly winners, 16 losers and 4 stocks just bumming around. Cameco gained 11.5% on the week, Denison gained 15.5%, Paladin gained 18.6%, Uranium One gained 7.7% and Uranium Participation gained 2.3%. The best weekly winner was Strathmore with a weekly gain of 25.3% while the loser of the week was JNR with a weekly loss of 12.5%. Market Vectors Uranium + Nuclear Energy ETF gained 7.3% while Global X Uranium ETF gained 10.4%.

LONG TERM

Once again the long term remains unchanged. The Indices are below their long term negative sloping moving average lines and the momentum indicator remain in their negative zones. The volume indicator remains weak and is below its long term trigger line. The long term rating remains BEARISH at the Friday close.

INTERMEDIATE TERM

Trend: It’s getting close but the Daily Index didn’t quite make it above the line. It closed on Friday just below its still negatively sloping intermediate term moving average line.

Strength: The intermediate term momentum indicator remains in its negative zone but has once more moved above its trigger line and the trigger has turned back to the up side.

Volume: The volume indicator continues in a basic lateral direction but is slightly below its intermediate term trigger line.

All in all the intermediate term rating at the Friday close remains BEARISH although it might be very close to some improvement. This bear is confirmed by the short term moving average line remaining below the intermediate term line.

SHORT TERM

Trend: The Daily Index moved above its short term moving average line during the week and the line has turned to the up side.

Strength: The short term momentum indicator is butting its head up against its neutral line but unfortunately is finished the week just slightly below the neutral line in its negative zone. It is, however, above its positive sloping trigger line.

Volume: The daily volume action remains low and not encouraging at this point.

For the short term the rating at the Friday close is BULLISH despite the negative momentum indicator. The very short term moving average line is heading upward fast and is touching the short term average BUT not quite moving above it yet, so, no confirmation from this source. One more day will do it.

As for the immediate direction of least resistance, I’m going with the lateral to negative for the next few days. The Stochastic Oscillator is in its Overbought zone and in the process of turning. The Daily Index has stopped moving upwards. Putting those two together it does not look too good for the next couple of days, but who knows, this is primarily a guess.

Merv's Weekly Uranium Indices 4 Dec 2011

2011-12-04T11:52:00.003-05:00

Merv's Weekly Uranium Table 4 Dec 2011

2011-12-04T11:51:00.002-05:00

Merv's Weekly Uranium Commentary 27 Nov 2011

2011-11-27T11:24:00.002-05:00

Merv’s Weekly Uranium Review
for week ending 25 November 2011

Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data for Friday 25 Nov 2011

Open: 128.56
High: 130.60
Low: 126.85
Close: 128.12
Volume: 1459

Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.

Note that additional charts of the Indices were posted earlier and should be viewed during this commentary.

Every now and then I like to look back to see where we have been. This week’s long term charts (posted earlier) once more take us right back to their respective beginnings, the Weekly Index from the start of 2003 and the Daily Index from late 2006. We can only compare their respective performances since late 2006 as the Daily only started then. What we see here is basically the same as what I have seem in the precious metal stocks (gold and silver) when comparing the performance of the speculative stocks versus the performance of the “quality” stocks.

As long time readers to these commentaries remember, the Weekly Index is most influenced by the low priced (speculative) stocks while the Daily Index is most influenced by the high priced (quality) stocks. Both Indices have the very same set of 50 component stocks.

From their highs in 2007 to their lows in late 2008 BOTH Indices lost just about the same percentage, the Weekly lost 87% while the Daily lost 84%. From the 2008 lows to their peaks in early 2011 the Weekly gained 517% while the Daily gained only 205%. Now, from their early 2011 high to the present the Weekly has lost some 66% and the Daily lost 55%. When one views the significantly higher upside potential of the speculative stocks versus the quality stocks and then you see that they BOTH decline about the same amount during a bear market, which class of stocks are you interested speculating in (and ALL uranium stocks are speculations)?

Of course, as technicians or those who follow the technical discipline, one would not be holding the stocks all the way down praying for a quick recovery while one would be holding the stocks as they continued their climb during a bull market. The net result should be even more spectacular than the Weekly Index itself would suggest.

As the saying goes, “you buy the performers and dump the bummers”.

Now, back to our normal weekly commentary.

What can I say? It was a bummer of a week for uranium stocks with both the Weekly and Daily Indices falling by about 9%. It looks more and more like we’re in for a test of the early Oct low although we just might not get that far as the Daily Index short term momentum indicator has already entered its oversold zone from where previous rallies have occurred.

On Friday the Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed lower by 0.93 points or 0.72%. There were 14 daily winners, 23 losers and 13 stocks that didn’t have a clue which way they wanted to go. Looking at the five largest stocks in the Index, Cameco lost 0.8% on the day, Denison gained 1.6%, Paladin lost 2.7%, Uranium One lost 0.5% and Uranium Participation didn’t have a clue which way to go. The best daily winner was Benton with a gain of 11.8% while the loser of the day way Strathmore with a loss of 10.7%. Market Vectors Uranium + Nuclear Energy ETF lost 0.5% while Global X Uranium ETF lost 0.7%.

For the full week the Merv’s Weekly Uranium Index lost 412.90 points or 8.83% (the Daily Index lost 9.07% on the week). There were only 2 weekly winners but a whole bunch of losers (45 of them). There were 3 stocks that didn’t have a clue which way to go. Cameco lost 10.4% on the week, Denison lost 16.2%, Paladin lost 7.6%, Uranium One lost 11.6% and Uranium Participation lost 5.1%. A slaughter all the way around. The best weekly winner (of those brave 2) was Kivalliq Energy with a gain of 8.6% while the loser of the week was Uranerz Energy with a loss of 22.3%. Market Vectors Uranium + Nuclear Energy ETF lost 7.3% while Global X Uranium ETF lost 10.6%.

LONG TERM

Trend: The long term trend remains negative with both the Daily and Weekly Indices moving lower below their respective negative sloping long term moving average lines.

Strength: The long term momentum indicators for both Indices remain in their negative zones and below their respective negative sloping trigger lines. At the present time there is no real sign of either strength or weakness in this indicator versus the performance of the Index itself.

Volume: The volume indicator has been tracing a basic lateral path although it did move slightly above its long term trigger line the other week. It is once more below its trigger and the trigger continues to point in a downward direction.

Putting it all together one can only give the long term a rating of BEARISH at the Friday close.

INTERMEDIATE TERM

Trend: The Daily Index continues to move lower and lower and heading towards a test of the 118 early Oct low. It remains below its intermediate term moving average line and the line continues to slope in a downward direction.

Strength: The intermediate term momentum indicator almost reached its neutral line about a month ago but has been reacting lower ever since. It remains in its negative zone and below its negative sloping trigger line. A close look at the indicator might suggest that it is not quite as weak as the price action might suggest but let’s wait and see how it develops.

Volume: For the past two months the volume indicator has been trending higher but this week it fell below a well established intermediate term up trend line and down it goes. It is also below its now negative trigger line.

On the intermediate term BEARISH is the only rating I can give, at the Friday close. This bear is further confirmed by the short term moving average line tracking below the intermediate term line.

SHORT TERM

This is where one would expect new trends to show up first. Unfortunately, nothing new is yet showing up.

Trend: The short term trend collapsed a month ago and since then it has been a downer all the way. The Daily Index remains below its negative sloping short term moving average line. There is a little hint that the slide may be about to end, if only on a very short term basis, but it is a very little hint and needs more confirmation before jumping for joy.

Strength: The short term momentum indicator has been in a steady decline for the past month and remains in its negative zone below its negative sloping trigger line. The indicator may or may not already be in its oversold zone. The level used as the oversold level can be fluid with different stocks or Indices and depends upon the volatility of the on going market action. Most software programs automatically use 30% as the oversold level while I am inclined to often use 20% for more volatile stocks or Indices. In one case the momentum indicator is not quite in its oversold zone while in the other case it already has entered the zone. In whatever case, it is at a level where one can start looking forward to a rebound of some sort.

Volume: The daily volume action has been pretty low during the week. This may be due to the American’s taking some time off to celebrate their Thanksgiving or it just might be some additional effect due to my component stock revision this past week. I had deleted 5 stocks and introduced 5 new ones. Their volume actions may not have been directly replaced. In any case the volume during the week was low and this, under most negative days, would not be a surprise.

Putting it all together the short term rating at the Friday close is BEARISH. This bear is confirmed by the very short term moving average line moving ever lower below the short term line.

As for the immediate direction of least resistance, I’m going to go with the up side for the next few days. Although there is no clear sign of a trend reversal yet there are some hints that the Daily Index and Stochastic Oscillator are strengthening and may be wanting to reverse. You pays your money and you get the bold predictions (of course, if the Indices should continue to decline we WILL forget about this prediction, wouldn’t we?)

Yes I know, it’s frustrating as hell this continual negative market BUT looking at the long term Weekly Index we can guess that once the stocks finally do bottom there will be some really, really great gains to be made for those who have waited.

Merv's Weekly Uranium Indices 27 Nov 2011

2011-11-27T08:08:00.003-05:00

Merv's Weekly Uranium Table 27 Nov 2011

2011-11-27T07:56:00.002-05:00

CRUMMY TABLE

I have had many comments that lately readers have had problems accessing the table to any readable degree. I have had the same problem lately. I'm not sure what the cause is. I have updated my browsers lately and Google may have been fooloing around with their Blogger software so it could be anything.

I have found a way of getting the table in the old view so that you can then expand it as before. My computers all have the XP operating system so if you have another system these instructions may not work. You might have to let the fingers do some experimentation to get the right access.

For Mozilla Firefox users, LEFT CLICK on the table. You get that table with a black background. now RIGHT CLICK on the table and a frame bobs up. Click on "View image" and you will get to our previous normal table format.

For Internet Explorer users, RIGHT CLICK on table. Then click on "Open Link" to get you where you want to go.

For Google Chrome users, RIGHT CLICK on table then click on "Open Link in New Window" to get you there.

Sorry about the indirect path to getting a decent table view but I'm not too good at this technology stuff.

Merv's Weekly Uranium Commentary 20 Nov 2011

2011-11-20T17:00:00.002-05:00

Merv’s Weekly Uranium Review
for week ending 18 November 2011

Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data for Friday 18 Nov 2011

Open: 141.42
High: 142.84
Low: 139.18
Close: 140.89
Volume: 3356

Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.

Note that additional charts of the Indices were posted earlier and should be viewed during this commentary.

This posting is getting harder and harder. Just too many things going on at the same time. Unless something drastic happens I will be posting only on the week-ends for a while, usually late Sunday afternoon.

The down side seems to be in control of the uranium stocks but there is a good support just below the Friday close and we just may be in for another rally. The down trending wedge pattern shown on today’s chart is also positive as the most likely scenario is an upside break. On the negative side we may just be in the final stages of forming a bearish head and shoulder pattern. It all depends upon if the Index can stay above that support level. On another positive side the Stochastic Oscillator is not as negative as the Index and may end up giving us a very short term positive divergence, but that still remains to be seen.

On Friday the Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed slightly higher, by 0.46 points or 0.32%. There were 23 winners, 16 losers and 11 stragglers. Cameco lost 0.4%, Denison gained 2.0%, Extract was a straggler, Paladin lost 0.6% and Uranium One gained 3.0%. The best daily winner was Xemplar with a gain of 20.0% while the loser of the day was Quaterra with a loss of 10.1%. Market Vectors Uranium + Nuclear Energy ETF gained 0.9% while Global X Uranium ETF gained 0.8%.

For the full week the Merv’s Weekly Uranium Index lost 122.50 points or 2.55% while the Daily Index lost 1.97%. There were 15 weekly winners, 30 losers and 5 stragglers. Cameco lost 3.2% on the week, Denison gained 3.4%, Extract gained 5.3%, Paladin gained 1.3% and Uranium One lost 7.8%. The best weekly winner was Fission Energy with a gain of 19.5% while the loser of the week was USEC with a loss of 19.4%. Market Vectors Uranium + Nuclear Energy ETF lost 3.8% while Global X Uranium ETF lost 4.6%.

LONG TERM

There is still no change in the long term indicators so I wouldn’t bother to go through the details. The rating, at the Friday close, remains BEARISH for both Indices.

INTERMEDIATE TERM

Trend: The Daily Index dropped below its intermediate term moving average line during the week and remains there. The moving average line is now pointing lower.

Strength: The intermediate term momentum indicator remains in its negative zone and below its negative sloping trigger line.

Volume: The volume indicator is pointing slightly upwards and is above its positive sloping trigger line.

Despite the positive volume indicator the net effect of all the indicators give us a BEARISH rating for the intermediate term, at the Friday close. This bear is not quite confirmed by the short term moving average line. The short term line is heading lower and is almost right on top of the intermediate term line but has not quite crossed below the intermediate term line. It needs another down day for that.

SHORT TERM

Trend: The Daily Index is now two weeks below its short term moving average line with the line remaining in a negative slope.

Strength: The short term momentum indicator is moving lower in the negative zone and below its negative trigger line.

Volume: The daily volume action is mixed. On the two highest trading days of this past week one was on an upside move while one was on a downside move. Nothing yet to take from this action.

At the Friday close the short term rating remains BEARISH with the very short term moving average line confirming by dropping below the short term line.

As for a guess at the immediate direction of least resistance, I’ll go with the down side although the Stochastic Oscillator is suggesting that the strength behind the move into new reaction lows was somewhat muted and a turn around should not be unexpected.

Merv's Weekly Uranium Indices 20 Nov 2011

2011-11-20T16:03:00.002-05:00

Merv's Weekly Uranium Table 20 Nov 2011

2011-11-20T16:02:00.001-05:00

Merv's Weekly Uranium Commentary 13 Nov 2011

2011-11-13T15:12:00.003-05:00

Unfortunately, I will be unable to post a commentary this week-end. I hope most of you who follow these commentaries have understood enough so that the charts and table are sufficient for now.

I expect to post some commentary before mid-week so please come back then.

Merv

Merv's Weekly Uranium Indices 13 Nov 2011

2011-11-13T15:11:00.003-05:00

Merv's Weekly Uranium Table 13 Nov 2011

2011-11-13T15:09:00.001-05:00

Merv's Weekly Commentary 06 Nov 2011

2011-11-06T16:23:00.002-05:00

Merv’s Weekly Uranium Review

for week ending 04 November 2011

Merv’s Daily Uranium Index

Market Data for Friday 04 Nov 2011

Open: 149.34

High: 151.32

Low: 146.31

Close: 149.07

Volume: 2636

Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.

Note that additional charts of the Indices were posted earlier and should be viewed during this commentary.

Back at last, hopefully for some time.

Before starting the weekly commentary and analysis I should say that I hope to totally review the Index component stocks over the next week or two. There are a few stocks that might need replacement. I am open for suggestions of stocks to consider adding or replacing. Global X Uranium ETF may be an addition as I now have enough historical trading information to include it in the Table. I don’t have the time to be constantly monitoring all of these stocks so any help or advice would be appreciated.

One stock that is giving me concern is one of the largest uranium stocks, Extract Resources. It’s primary market is on the Australian exchange where it is relatively active but here on the Toronto exchange it doesn’t trade very often. This is not good for the Index calculation. I am looking at plugging in the daily trading information from the Australian trading by hand but this is time consuming, which is limited to start. I haven’t decided what I will do yet but will let you know after I have decided.

The uranium stocks, as represented by the Merv’s Indices, have not done much since I last posted. It’s that kind of a market, nothing too exciting. Of course there are always a few stocks that out perform the Indices. Hopefully those are the ones most of you are into. Let’s go right into the normal routine.

The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed on Friday with a loss of 0.69 points or 0.46%. There were 18 winners, 21 losers and 11 stocks that don’t seem to know what to do. Cameco lost 0.3%, Denison and Extract didn’t know what to do, Paladin lost 0.7% and Uranium One lost 1.7%. The best winner of the day was Continental Precious Minerals with a daily gain of 12.1% while the loser of the day was Bannerman with a loss of 8.5%. Market Vectors Uranium + Nuclear Energy ETF lost 1.5% while Global X Uranium ETF lost 1.6%.

For the full week the Merv’s Weekly Uranium Index lost 86.6 points or 1.7% while the Daily Index lost 3.5%. There were 15 weekly winners, 29 losers and 6 not knowing what to do. Cameco lost 3.1% on the week, Denison lost 4.3%, Extract lost 0.5%, Paladin lost 13.1% and Uranium One lost 6.6%. The best weekly winner was Formation Metals with a weekly gain of 21.4% while the loser of the week was Bannerman with a weekly loss of 16.9%. Market Vectors Uranium + Nuclear Energy ETF lost 6.0% while Global X Uranium ETF lost 6.1%.

It’s been three weeks since the last market review so let’s get right to it and see where we are at the Friday close.

LONG TERM

Trend: Both the Weekly and Daily Indices remain below their respective long term moving average lines and the lines remain sloping downward.

Strength: Both momentum indicators are perking up and are above their respective long term trigger lines but both indicators still remain in their negative zones.

Volume: The long term volume indicator has been moving higher over the past few weeks but no great shakes. It remains just below its negative sloping trigger line.

At the Friday close the long term rating remains BEARISH.

INTERMEDIATE TERM

Trend: Two weeks ago the Daily Index crossed above its intermediate term moving average line and a few days later the line turned to the up side. The Index is still above the line and the line continues to point upwards.

Strength: The intermediate term momentum crossed above its trigger line a month back and has been trending ever higher ever since with the trigger line following. However, the indicator still remains slightly in its negative zone.

Volume: Although the volume indicator is not showing much strength it has crossed above its trigger line and the trigger has turned to the up side.

At the Friday close the intermediate term rating is BULLISH. This is confirmed by the short term moving average line having crossed above the intermediate term line.

SHORT TERM

Trend: The Daily Index has been above its short term moving average line for a month now but did cross below the line for one day this past week. Although closing above the moving average line on Friday the Index is very close to the line and could drop below the line quickly. The line is, however, still in an upward slope.

Strength: The short term momentum indicator had moved into its positive zone several days ago and remains there. However, it has also dropped below its trigger line and the trigger has now turned to the down side.

Volume: The daily volume action has been pretty low and not showing any signs of renewed speculative interest in uranium stocks in general.

At the Friday close the short term rating is BULLISH. This is confirmed by the very short term moving average line remaining above the short term line. However, the two moving average lines are converging fast and it would not take more than a day or two of negative activity for the very short term line to drop below the short term line.

As for the immediate direction of least resistance that is starting to look more and more like the down side although the Stochastic Oscillator had turned upwards in the past couple of days and may be on to something.

Merv's Weekly Uranium Indices 06 Nov 2011

2011-11-06T14:17:00.003-05:00

Merv's Weekly Uranium Table 06 Nov 2011

2011-11-06T14:15:00.001-05:00

MAJOR SCREW-UP

2011-10-24T10:41:00.002-04:00

Am away from home base for the next 10 days or so. Forgot to take my Uranium Data and files with me. There will be no posting until at least early Nov, like the 3rd or 4th. Sorry about that.

Merv's Weekly Uranium Commentary 16 Oct 2011

2011-10-16T17:19:00.002-04:00

Merv’s Weekly Uranium Review
for week ending 14 October 2011

Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data for Friday 14 Oct 2011

Open: 142.20
High: 146.26
Low: 140.68
Close: 145.06
Volume: 4161

Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.

Note that additional charts of the Indices were posted earlier and should be viewed during this commentary.

It’s been a good week for uranium stocks, even a great week for some BUT one week does not a new trend make. Although the short term prognosis has improved tremendously the intermediate and long term still have a way to go. I may be a little to cautious at times but I have learned long ago by bad experiences that to jump in just to get in on the bottom floor is not always the best way to go. Wait for the stocks to confirm new trends before jumping in and then you can assume a lot lower risk and still make good profits. Those who jump in at the very slightest bit of good news were probably jumping in in mid-June or early Aug and now still have quite a way to go just to break even from those false moves. Better to be safe than sorry.

The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed on Friday with a gain of 3.98 points or 2.82%. There were 30 winners, 11 losers and 9 stinkers. Not a very bullish statistic for a roaring new bull. Cameco closed the day with a gain of 2.0%, Denison gained 3.3%, Extract gained 0.7%, Paladin lost 1.7% and Uranium One gained 6.6%. The best daily winner was USEC with a one day gain of 53.3% (WOW!). The worst daily loser was Crosshair with a loss of 11.1%. Market Vectors Uranium + Nuclear Energy ETF gained 2.9% while Global X Uranium ETF gained 4.7%.

For the full week the Merv’s Weekly Uranium Index gained 10.1% while the Daily Index gained 8.6%. There were 37 weekly winners, 10 losers and 3 stinkers. Cameco gained 7.8% on the week, Denison gained 9.6%, Extract gained 12.2%, Paladin gained 13.0% and Uranium One gained 7.1%. The best weekly winner was USEC with a weekly gain of 68.6% while the loser of the week was Wealth Minerals with a loss of 12.0%. Market Vectors Uranium + Nuclear Energy ETF gained 8.3% while Global X Uranium ETF gained 14.7%.

LONG TERM

Trend: Both the Weekly and Daily Indices continue well below their respective negative sloping long term moving average lines.

Strength: The long term momentum indicators for both Indices remain in their negative zones but are moving upward and are now above their positive trigger lines.

Volume: The long term volume indicator is moving upwards but at a very slow pace versus the Index. It has not yet crossed its trigger line which itself is still in a downward slope.

Putting it all together, at the Friday close the long term rating remains BEARISH.

INTERMEDIATE TERM

Trend: The Daily Index is still far below its intermediate term moving average line with the moving average line still sloping downward.

Strength: The intermediate term momentum indicator seems to be acting stronger than the Index itself. It is above the level of the August highs even as the Index is still some distance below its heights. However, the indicator is still in its negative zone but nicely above its positive sloping trigger line.

Volume: This is still the weakest of the indicators. Having said that, the indicator has crossed above its intermediate term trigger line by only a minimal amount. The trigger itself is still in a downward slope.

At the Friday close, the intermediate term rating remains BEARISH with the short term moving average line some distance below the intermediate term line for confirmation.

SHORT TERM

Trend: There’s no getting away from it, the Daily Index short term is most definitely on the up side. The Index is above its positive sloping moving average line. It is, however, getting into a very strong resistance area from the Aug/Sept action. We should expect a halt to the up move at least temporarily very soon.

Strength: The short term momentum indicator has moved into its positive zone and well above its positive sloping trigger line.

Volume: This is still the holdup. The daily volume action has not improved. We need improvement here for the trend to have any chance of longevity.

At the Friday close the short term rating is BULLISH with the very short term moving average line confirming this bull by moving above the short term average line.

As for the immediate direction of least resistance, I’m not sure how good my coin flipping has been but it’s better than many experts. The flip says that for the next few days things are unsure and lateral direction seems to be the thing. To get the lateral direction by the flip, the coin landed in a crack and stood on its edge. If you believe that – wait, where is my Bre-X stock to get rid of.

Merv's Weekly Uranium Indices 16 Oct 2011

2011-10-16T11:38:00.003-04:00

Merv's Weekly Uranium Table 16 Oct 2011

2011-10-16T11:36:00.001-04:00

Merv's Weekly Commentary 10 Oct 2011

2011-10-10T15:18:00.002-04:00

Merv’s Weekly Uranium Review

for week ending 07 October 2011

Merv’s Daily Uranium Index

Market Data for Friday 07 Oct 2011

Open: 134.88

High: 137.57

Low: 131.21

Close: 133.58

Volume: 4268

Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.

Note that additional charts of the Indices were posted earlier and should be viewed during this commentary.

Sorry for the delay in posting this week. It’s Thanksgiving in Canada and I just decided to relax and enjoy the holiday.

The posting will be short as nothing much has happened during the week (again) except some strengthening in the short term.

The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed on Friday with a loss of 0.58 points or 0.43%. There were 20 winners, 19 losers and 11 slackers. Cameco lost 2.5%, Denison lost 0.9%, Extract gained 11.3%, Paladin gained 7.7% and Uranium One lost 6.6%. The best winner of the day was JNR with a gain of 13.3% while the loser of the day was Quaterra with a loss of 8.8%. Market Vectors Uranium + Nuclear Energy ETF lost 0.2% while Global X Uranium ETF gained 0.4%.

For the week as a whole the Merv’s Weekly Uranium Index closed with a gain of 106.35 points or 2.66% while the Daily gained 3.62%. There were 28 weekly winners, 19 losers and 3 slackers. Cameco gained 3.6%, Denison gained 1.8%, Extract gained 11.3%, Paladin gained 29.4% and Uranium One gained 1.9%. Paladin was the best weekly winner with that 29.4% gain while USEC was the loser of the week with a loss of 24.8%. Market Vectors Uranium + Nuclear Energy ETF gained 0.5% and Global X Uranium ETF gained 3.9%.

As mentioned, nothing much has changed during the week, especially for the long and intermediate term. The ratings at the Friday close remain BEARISH for both periods.

On the short term the Daily Index moved above its short term moving average line on Thursday and remained above the line on Friday. The line slope, however, remains pointing downward. The short term momentum indicator is still in its negative zone but is moving upward and has moved above its now positive sloping trigger line. The daily volume action is still too small to get excited about. On the short term, at the Friday close, the rating has improved to the + NEUTRAL level, one level below a full bull. The very short term moving average line remains below the short term line confirming that we are not quite into a short term bull just yet.

Merv's Weekly Uranium Indices 9 Oct 2011

2011-10-09T10:21:00.002-04:00

Merv's Weekly Uranium Table 9 Oct 2011

2011-10-09T10:20:00.001-04:00

Merv's Weekly Uranium Commentary 02 Oct 2011

2011-10-02T16:18:00.002-04:00

Merv’s Weekly Uranium Review
for week ending 30 September 2011

Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data for Friday 30 Sep 2011

Open: 129.81
High: 132.99
Low: 127.13
Close: 130.17
Volume: 3882

Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.

Note that additional charts of the Indices were posted earlier and should be viewed during this commentary.

Another bummer of a week. Looking at the results it was, once more, the more speculative stocks that took the hardest hit. Sooner or later the bear will end and the sky will open up and the sun will shine and the birds will sing but not today.

The Weekly Indices posted earlier show my two Indices full history from the time of each development. The Weekly Index was the first to be developed starting way back in Jan of 2003 while the Daily Index was developed in late 2006. One sure can see the difference in performance of these two Indices. From the 2008 low to the high in early 2011 the Weekly Index rose over 500% while the Daily Index rose 200%. On the down side, however, the two Indices are not that far apart. The Daily has declined 55% while the Weekly declined 65% to this point. I find this performance similar to that of gold and silver stocks, the speculative stocks rise many 100s of % points more than the quality stocks do but both decline about the same. Just goes to show, go with the speculative stocks but not with buy and hold strategy.

The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index declined on Friday by 1.69 points or 1.28% (the average stock lost 2.34%). There were 13 winners, 30 losers and 7 stocks lost in the shuffle. Cameco gained 0.6% on the day, Denison and Extract got lost in the shuffle, Paladin gained 3.5% and Uranium One lost 3.3%. The best daily winner was Forsys with a gain of 11.8% while the loser of the day was Uranium Resources with a loss of 12.8%. Market Vectors Uranium + Nuclear Energy ETF lost 1.8% while Global X Uranium ETF lost 2.27%.

For the full week the Merv’s Weekly Uranium Index declined 316.76 points or 7.34% while the Daily Index declined 4.25%. There were 9 weekly winners, 41 losers and no stocks lost in the shuffle. Cameco gained 1.3%, Denison lost 5.9%, Extract lost 18.5%, Paladin lost 17.4% and Uranium One lost 6.3%. The best weekly performer was Bannerman with a gain of 17.3% while the loser of the week was Wealth Minerals with a loss of 27.3%. Market Vectors Uranium + Nuclear Energy ETF lost 0.6% while Global X Uranium ETF lost 6.0%.

LONG TERM

As you can guess nothing has changed from the long term perspective. All indicators are negative and therefore the long term rating remains BEARISH at the Friday close.

INTERMEDIATE TERM:

Everything is negative on the intermediate term so no need to go through the full exercise. The only thing to note is the momentum indicator. Although both the Index and volume indicator have moved into new lows during the week the intermediate term momentum indicator, although negative, is holding slightly above its early Aug lows for a slight possible positive divergence. We’ll take any encouraging sign we can get. Still, the intermediate term rating remains BEARISH at the Friday close. This bear is confirmed by the short term moving average line remaining below the intermediate term line.

SHORT TERM

Having copped out on the details for the other time periods I guess I should go through the routine for the short term.

Trend: Although the trend remains to the down side the Daily Indexdoes seem to be making a box pattern with a resistance at the 140 level and support at the 127 level. The action so far is limited so we’ll just have to wait and see how this develops. In the mean time the Daily Index remains below its negative sloping moving average line.

Strength: The short term momentum indicator remains in its negative zone and very slightly below its negative trigger line. As with the intermediate term indicator the momentum indicator here remains slightly above its level from Aug for a developing positive divergence.

Volume: The daily volume action remains low as one might expect during a price decline. This is normal and not giving us amy particular message.

For the short term the rating remains BEARISH at the Friday close. This is confirmed by the very short term moving average line remaining below the short term line.

At the Friday close there was no indication of a rebound ahead but I’ll go with the lateral trend as the trend of least resistance. This goes with the assumption that we are developing a box pattern.

Merv's Weekly Uranium Indices 02 Oct 2011

2011-10-02T13:21:00.003-04:00

Merv's Weekly Uranium Table 02 Oct 2011

2011-10-02T13:20:00.002-04:00

Merv's Weekly Uranium Commentary 25 Sept 2011

2011-09-25T15:58:00.003-04:00

Merv’s Weekly Uranium Review
for week ending 23 September 2011

Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data for Friday 23 Sep 2011

Open: 137.15
High: 139.33
Low: 133.39
Close: 135.95
Volume: 3989

Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.

Note that additional charts of the Indices were posted earlier and should be viewed during this commentary.

We all should have just stayed in bed and not bothered with the uranium stocks. A disaster is a disaster regardless of how one looks at it. Is there any good or even slightly better than bad news? Well, yes there is some encouraging news in the charts but nothing one can run with and start spending hard earned capital on. The Daily Index (representing the large quality type stocks) has dropped just a little below its last years July low but not yet enough to panic about. It is in a zone of heavy earlier activity but that zone goes all the way down to the 90 level so that’s no great help. The Weekly Index (representing the smaller speculative stocks) is still above its last years low despite the real drubbing it has been taking recently. There is hope here that this Weekly Index will hold above its previous low, but that’s only a hope. Let’s go through our routine and see what we have after this week’s disaster.

The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed on Friday with a daily loss of 2.51 points or 1.81%. There were 10 winners on the day, 28 losers and 12 stocks just running around. Cameco lost 2.1%, Denison lost 6.3%, Extract was just running around, Paladin gained 2.9% and Uranium One lost 3.5%. The best daily winner was Strateco with a gain of 6.5% while the loser of the day was Mawson with a loss of 16.7%. Market Vectors Uranium + Nuclear Energy ETF was just running around while Global X Uranium ETF lost 1.1%.

For the full week (do you really want to know?) the Merv’s Weekly Uranium Index closed lower by 653.40 points or 13.15% (the Daily Index closed down only 9.92%). There were 5 weekly winners, 43 losers and 2 stocks running around. Cameco lost 10.0% on the week, Denison lost 17.4%, Extract gained 0.1%, Paladin lost 12.7% and Uranium One lost 12.3%. The best weekly winner was Fission Energy with a weekly gain of 9.1% while the loser of the week was Mawson with a loss of 31.4%. Market Vectors Uranium + Nuclear Energy ETF lost 8.1% while Global X Uranium ETF lost 15.8%.

LONG TERM

No use going through the indicators here, everything is still very negative and the long term ratings remain BEARISH for both the Daily and Weekly Indices.

INTERMEDIATE TERM

There are some interesting things going on here so I’ll go through the process.

Trend: The trend remains towards the down side with the Daily Index trading below its intermediate term negative sloping moving average line.

Strength: Here, there is a little bit of good news. Although the intermediate term momentum indicator remains in its negative zone and below its negative sloping trigger line it is not into new low territory as the Index is. We have what might turn out to be a positive divergence in the indicator but that would have to wait for a turn to the up side before we know of its final low point. We only have divergence (as far as I am concerned) when we have the reversal of trend to show the low or high level that the indicator had reached.

Volume: The volume indicator is no help here. It is into new bear lows, below its negative sloping trigger line.

Despite a little positive news in the momentum indicator the intermediate term rating remains BEARISH at the Friday close. This is confirmed by the short term moving average line remaining below the intermediate term line.

SHORT TERM

The Daily Index broke below its August support level, which is never a good sign. The short term momentum indicator is, however, still above its August level for a potential positive divergence as with the intermediate term indicator.

Trend: The trend remains negative with the Daily Index below its negative sloping moving average line.

Strength: As mentioned above, the momentum indicator is starting to strengthen but remains in its negative zone below its negative sloping trigger line.

Volume: The daily volume action remains weak with the daily volume usually below its 15 day average volume. On days when the daily volume increased above its 15 day average were usually days of downside Index action and not a good sign.

As with the intermediate term we do have some potential positives in the momentum indicator but when putting it all together the short term remains BEARISH. This bear is confirmed by the very short term moving average line remaining above the short term line.

As for the immediate direction of least resistance, that should be the down side if Thursday and Friday’s actions are any hint. However, the Stochastic Oscillator is in its oversold zone and in the process of turning upwards (it has not quite made it yet). It is also almost ready to move above its trigger line. One day just might do it. So, although everything looks bad I’ll go with the up side as the direction very early in the week.

Merv's Weekly Uranium Indices 25 Sept 2011

2011-09-25T14:27:00.001-04:00

Merv's Weekly Uranium Table 25 Sept 2011

2011-09-25T14:26:00.001-04:00

Merv's Weekly Uranium Commentary 19 Sept 2011

2011-09-19T08:39:00.002-04:00

Merv’s Weekly Uranium Review
for week ending 16 September 2011

Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data for Friday 16 Sep 2011

Open: 152.05
High: 153.96
Low: 148.91
Close: 150.92
Volume: 5855

Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.

Note that additional charts of the Indices were posted earlier and should be viewed during this commentary.

Would you believe 5 power outages in less than 2 weeks, two in one day? Isn’t this a great country?

Last week’s rise in the price of uranium seemed to have done nothing for the stocks. It was basically another flat week with a few stocks causing ulcers. We are back into one of those “box” patterns which long time readers may remember. We are awaiting the Daily Index to get out of the box but another week has gone by and the box remains unbreached. Nothing much has changed in the indicators to cause us to start getting all excited but let’s go through the exercise anyway.

LONG TERM

It will still take some time before we get any real change in the long term indicators.

Trend: The Daily and Weekly Indices remain way below their negative sloping long term moving average lines. No change here.

Strength: The long term momentum indicators remain in negative territory. They are now moving more in a lateral direction but not yet upwards. While in this lateral trend they are moving above and below their trigger lines, which are also lateral in direction.

Volume: The Daily Index volume indicator seems to have bottomed out but not yet turned around. It remains slightly below its still negative trigger line.

As of the Friday close the long term rating remains BEARISH.

INTERMEDIATE TERM

The intermediate term is starting to give us just a little hint that it might be ready to reverse direction, but not quite yet.

Trend: The Daily Index action is now in a lateral direction. This and a negative sloping moving average line is causing the two to be in a closing mode. However, the Daily Index remains below the moving average line for now.

Strength: The intermediate term momentum indicator seems to be firming up and appears as if it wants to start moving upwards. For now it remains in its negative zone but is oscillating above and below its trigger line. At the Friday close it finished the week just a hair above its positive sloping trigger.

Volume: Although in a lateral drift the volume indicator closed the week just very slightly below its neutral sloping trigger line.

At the Friday close the intermediate term rating remains BEARISH but may be very close to some improvement. The short term moving average line remains below the intermediate term line for confirmation of this bear.

SHORT TERM

We should see any significant changes in the indicators first in these short term ones.

Trend: Since the Daily Index started its box pattern in early Aug it has been toying with its short term moving average line by moving above and below the line as it oscillates within the box. At the Friday close the Daily Index ended just very, very slightly below its negative sloping moving average line.

Strength: The short term momentum indicator is the closest momentum indicator to breaking back into the positive zone but still, on Friday it finished just below its neutral line. The indicator is above its trigger line and the trigger is in a positive slope.

Volume: The daily volume action remains pretty low. Unfortunately, on Friday we had the highest volume in the past 3 or 4 weeks but that was on a negative Index move. A significant percentage of that daily volume was due to one stock so maybe we should not place too much emphasis on that volume action.

At the Friday close the short term rating is BEARISH but this can change from day to day. The bear is confirmed by the very short term moving average line remaining below the short term line.

As for the immediate direction of least resistance, I’m going to go with the up side although I do not see an explosion in that direction yet.

Merv's Weekly Uranium Indices 18 Sept 2011

2011-09-18T12:17:00.003-04:00

The Weekly Commentary will be a little late again but will get posted, most likely in early evening.

Merv's Weekly Uranium Table 18 Sept 2011

2011-09-18T12:16:00.001-04:00

Merv's Daily Commentary 136 Sept 2011

2011-09-13T17:19:00.003-04:00

Nothing much has occured these past few days of power failures (2 failures yesterday alone). I'll just leave you with the chart.

Merv's Weekly Uranium Commentary 12 Sept 2011

2011-09-12T10:46:00.003-04:00

Merv’s Weekly Uranium Review
for week ending 09 September 2011

Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data for Friday 09 Sep 2011

Open: 151.83
High: 154.56
Low: 148.13
Close: 150.60
Volume: 3289

Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.

Note that additional charts of the Indices were posted earlier and should be viewed during this commentary.

Do you believe it? 5 power failures in the space of less than two weeks. Welcome to the wonderful world of the Quebec Hydro. Third world countries have nothing on us.

Yesterday, a power failure that set my schedule back. This morning just as I was getting ready to finally put the weekly commentary together, another power failure. We could hear the transformers going. When they go it’s a very loud crack. And when the transformer is behind your yard that crack is very, very loud. I don’t understand why in this day and age the Power company could not have transformers that at least have a safety feature protecting them from failures.

As the chart of the daily Index shows, nothing much has happened this past week. One can say, same old, same old. So, let’s just go straight to the weekly analysis.

The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed on Friday with a loss of 2.60 points or 1.70%. There were 17 winners, 31 losers and 2 stocks not in the game. Cameco lost 4.5% on Friday, Denison lost 4.5%, Extract gained all of 0.1%, Paladin lost 3.7% and Uranium One lost 4.1%. With the biggies losing in the neighborhood of 4% on Friday but the Index only losing only 1.7% the small stocks were probably then ones holding the losses down. The best winner of the day was Pitchstone with a daily gain of 14.3% while the loser of the day was Pele Mountain with a loss of 11.4%. Market Vectors Uranium + Nuclear Energy ETF lost 3.2% while Global X Uranium ETF lost 3.7%.

The Merv’s Weekly Uranium Index lost 10.34 points or 0.20% during the week (the Daily lost 1.1% during the week). There were 18 weekly winners, 31 weekly losers and one stock not in the game. Cameco lost 4.4% during the week, Denison lost 3.3%, Extract gained 1.9%, Paladin lost 7.5% and Uranium One lost 2.9%. The best weekly winner was U308 with a weekly gain of 58.7% while the loser of the week was USEC with a loss of 13.6%. Market Vectors Uranium + Nuclear Energy ETF lost 4.2% on the week while Global X Uranium ETF lost 3.8%.

To go through the three time periods with an analysis of where we are would almost seem like a recording from last week. However, I’ve got to look like I’m doing something so here goes.

First, just check out the two long term (weekly) charts posted earlier and try to visualize the difference in performance in the two. The large (quality) stocks do not move nearly as well (Daily Index) as the smaller (speculative) stocks do (Weekly Index).

LONG TERM

Trend: As both long term Index charts show (posted earlier) both Indices are still well below their long term negative sloping averages. The Daily Index indicates the Index at a long term support level while the Weekly Index is also at a support from 2009 activity but about 20% above the low of 2010. What to make of this is anyone’s guess.

Strength: Both Indices long term momentum indicators are in their negative zones. The daily version of the Daily Index shows the long term momentum just dropping below its trigger line although the trigger is still slightly sloping upwards. In addition, the momentum indicator is showing a very nice up trend line with the Friday close of the indicator being just above the line.

Volume: The volume indicator continues to drift sideways but remains below its negative sloping trigger line.

On the long term the rating remains BEARISH at the Friday close.

INTERMEDIATE TERM

Trend: The Daily Index continues to trade below its intermediate term moving average line.

Strength: The intermediate term momentum indicator remains in its negative zone but is moving higher and showing greater improved strength versus the Index. However, the indicator did drop below its trigger line although the trigger is still slightly positive. In addition, the indicator does have a well defined up trend line from its early August low with the momentum still slightly above the line.

Volume: The volume indicator has again dropped below its trigger line with the trigger pointing downward.

The intermediate term rating remains BEARISH at the Friday close. This is confirmed by the short term moving average remaining below the intermediate term average.

SHORT TERM

Trend: As the short term chart shows, the Daily Index remains below its resistance level which is at 160 give or take one or two points. The Index is also below its negative sloping short term moving average line.

Strength: The short term momentum indicator remains in its negative zone and has once more dropped below its negative trigger line. We have a similar up trend line in the indicator but in this case the indicator has just dropped below the trend line.

Volume: The daily volume action remains very low.

On the short term the rating remains BEARISH on Friday with the very short term moving average moving lower fast and sitting right on top of the short term moving average line BUT not quite below the line, so no confirmation today but most likely on Monday.

As for the immediate direction of least resistance, I would think that is to the down side although the Stochastic Oscillator continues above its trigger line with no reversal shown.

Merv's Weekly Uranium Indices 10 Sept 2011

2011-09-10T17:42:00.003-04:00

Merv's Weekly Uranium Table 10 Sept 2011

2011-09-10T17:40:00.001-04:00

Merv's Daily Uranium Comments 8 Sept 2011

2011-09-08T19:06:00.002-04:00

Nothing much is happening so I'll just leave the chart for your review. Working off a fifth power faliure (this morning) since April. Great Power Company we have here in Quebec.

Merv's Weekly Uranium Commentary 05 Sept 2011

2011-09-05T13:01:00.003-04:00

Merv’s Weekly Uranium Review
for week ending 02 September 2011

Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data for Friday 02 Sep 2011

Open: 153.96
High: 155.09
Low: 150.95
Close: 152.28
Volume: 3998

Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.

Note that additional charts of the Indices were posted earlier and should be viewed during this commentary.

Posting has sure been sporadic over the past few weeks, what with floods, computer crashes, laziness, etc. Hopefully, I am back on track now with posting a couple of times during the week plus week ends until things get cooking again. With a mundane market as we have had over the past months there is very little to really post about every day.

Looking through the weekly Table we see that most stocks are still in bearish mode with only 18% bullish on the intermediate term and 51% still bearish. Looking through the individual stocks I get the distinct impression that more and more are in bottoming patterns getting ready for a good bullish move. All they need is some gentle kick in the behind to get started. Anyway, let’s see where we are on the Friday close.

The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed Friday down 3.36 points or 2.16%. There were 10 daily winners, 30 losers and a whole lot of weenies (10 of them). Cameco lost 2.3%, Denison lost 1.9%, Extract was a daily weenie, Paladin lost 4.8% and Uranium One lost 6.5%. The best daily winner was Pele Mountain with a gain of 5.0% while the loser of the day was Wealth Minerals with a loss of 18.8%. Market Vectors Uranium + Nuclear Energy ETF lost 2.7% while Global X Uranium ETF lost 3.1%.

On the full week the Merv’s Weekly Uranium Index lost 22.32 points or 0.43% while the Daily Index gained 0.12%. There were 23 weekly winners, 25 losers and only 2 weenies. Cameco gained 1.6% on the week, Denison gained 2.7%, Extract gained 0.9%, Paladin lost 6.5% and Uranium One lost 11.0%. The best weekly winner was Benton with a gain of 16.7% while the loser of the week was Forum Uranium with a loss of 16.7%. Market Vectors Uranium + Nuclear Energy ETF lost 1.6% while Global X Uranium ETF lost 1.5%.

LONG TERM

Nothing much changes on the long term.

Trend: At the Friday close both Daily and Weekly Indices are still well below their long term moving averages with the averages sloping downward. The Indices may be in the process of bottoming but from the long term perspective this is still not really noticeable.

Strength: Both long term momentum indicators remain in their negative zones. The Daily long term momentum indicator is just a hair above its trigger line with the trigger still very slightly with an upward slope.

Volume: The Daily Index volume indicator (the Weekly Index does not have volume information) continues to move slightly lower below its still negative sloping trigger line.

At the Friday close the long term rating remains BEARISH.

INTERMEDIATE TERM

Things are getting closer to some change in the intermediate term but close does not really count.

Trend: The Daily Index remains below its negative sloping moving average line, although not much below.

Strength: The intermediate term momentum indicator continues in its negative zone but looks to be strengthening, if only just a little, versus the Index action. It is above its trigger line with the trigger in an upward slope.

Volume: The volume indicator appears to be in a bottoming pattern and closed on Friday just above its trigger line. The trigger, however, is still in a slight downward slope.

Putting it all together we still have a Friday close rating of BEARISH. This is confirmed with the short term moving average line remaining below the intermediate term line.

SHORT TERM

Short term things are a little murky. Everything seems to be bottoming out but the last couple of days sort of put a halt to that. So, let’s see how the week ended from the short term perspective.

Trend: The Daily Index broke above its short term moving average line the previous Friday and stayed above the line throughout this past week. Thursday and Friday were down days but the close on Friday was still above the line if only just barely. The moving average line itself remains sloping upwards. In addition, we do have a resistance level that had halted the advance, at the 160 mark. The Index needs to overcome this resistance to be able to advance further.

Strength: The short term momentum indicator just nudged through its neutral line but by week’s end was back in the negative zone. It has moved below its trigger line although the trigger is still slightly on the upward slope. From the early Aug low in the indicator we can draw an up trend line. The indicator remains above the trend line but that could quickly change with another day or two of Index downside action.

Volume: The volume action remains very low although the Friday volume closed just above its short term 15 day average volume value.

All in all, because of the momentum indicator I cannot give the short term a full bull rating. On the short term the rating is + NEUTRAL on the Friday close. The very short term moving average line is moving downward fast but closed on Friday almost on top of the short term line for confirmation that the full bear is not here yet, at least not at the Friday close.

As for the immediate direction of least resistance, that can only be to the down side. All very short term trends are heading in that direction as is the Stochastic Oscillator.

Merv's Weekly Uranium Indices 04 Sept 2011

2011-09-04T10:47:00.003-04:00

Merv's Weekly Uranium Table 04 Sept 2011

2011-09-04T10:45:00.001-04:00

LATEST URANIUM INDEX 01 Sept 2011

2011-09-01T11:30:00.002-04:00

POSTING DELAY

2011-08-30T08:52:00.002-04:00

The eye of Huricane IRENE bypassed us but did knock out our power on early Sunday. Power was not restored until late last night. Flooded Basement for the second time in two weeks. Priority now to get the house back in order. Posting will be delayed.

Sorry about that.

Merv

Merv's Uranium Commentary 28 Aug 2011

2011-08-28T14:12:00.001-04:00

Apologies to all. Once I get behind in my work I REALLY get behind.

I don't think I'll be able to post the week-end commentaries or charts and table until tomorrow (Monday).

Merv

Merv's Weekly Uranium Commentary 21 Aug 2011

2011-08-21T16:27:00.002-04:00

Merv’s Weekly Uranium Review

for week ending 19 August 2011

Merv’s Daily Uranium Index

Market Data for Friday 19 Aug 2011

Open: 146.94

High: 150.51

Low: 145.03

Close: 146.80

Volume: 2859

Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.

Note that additional charts of the Indices were posted earlier and should be viewed during this commentary.

Home again but to a flooded basement, well, not really “flooded” but pretty wet. Too much happening during the week and I totally forgot to replace Terra Ventures in the Index component stock list. Will do it this coming week if nothing else goes wrong.

I’m way behind once again so I’ll just get right to the weekly review.

The Merv's Daily Uranium Index closed on the down side on Friday, lower by 1.90 points or 1.28%. There were 13 winners, 29 losers and 7 bummers (and one not counted). Cameco lost 3.3% on the day, Denison lost 2.7%, Extract gained 0.5%, Paladin lost 4.8% and Uranium One lost 1.8%. The best daily winner was Ucore with a gain of 10.6% while the worst daily loser was Bannerman with a loss of 9.5%. Market Vectors Uranium + Nuclear Energy ETF lost 0.4% while Global Uranium ETF lost 1.8%.

On a weekly basis the Merv’s Weekly Uranium Index lost 311.22 points or 5.94% (the Daily lost 5.59%). There were 3 weekly winners, 42 weekly losers and 4 weekly bummers (again one not counted). Cameco lost 8.4% on the week, Denison lost 12.2%, Extract gained 5.8%, Paladin lost 14.3% and Uranium One lost 7.9%. The best weekly winner was Uranium Energy with a gain of 7.8% while the worst weekly loser was Rockgate Capital with a loss of 27.7%. Market Vectors Uranium + Nuclear Energy ETF lost 3.9% while Global X Uranium ETF lost 6.1%.

I’ll just cut it short for the long term and intermediate term. Both are BEARISH with the intermediate term bear being confirmed by the short term moving average line.

SHORT TERM

On the short term we are heading lower but have not yet made new lows. Despite what the long term Indices (especially the Weekly Index) may imply we have not made new lows when you consider the activity early in the week of the week before last. There has, however, been significant deterioration in the recent strength of the Indices. The Daily Index weekly chart is showing the long term momentum gaining downward strength and is at its lowest level for over two years. The Weekly Index is also just about there too but needs a little more downside momentum to overcome the low of July 2010.

Trend: The Daily Index is below its negative sloping moving average line and heading lower.

Strength: The short term momentum indicator is in its negative zone below its negative trigger line, and also heading lower. Neither the price nor momentum has yet moved into new lows and that is something to watch. If they can hold above previous low levels then a good rally just might be in the cards.

Volume: The daily volume action remains pathetic. No rally of only longevity has a chance if we do not get that volume action to pick up.

At the Friday close the short term rating remains BEARISH. This is confirmed by the very short term moving average line remaining below the short term line.

As for the immediate direction of least resistance, I’ll go with the down side but with the Stochastic Oscillator just about to enter its oversold zone a bounce of some sort may only be days away.

Merv's Weekly Uranium Tables 21 Aug 2011

2011-08-21T15:11:00.002-04:00

Merv's Weekly Uranium Table 21 Aug 2011

2011-08-21T15:10:00.001-04:00

Merv's Weekly Uranium Commentary 14 Aug 2011

2011-08-14T13:59:00.005-04:00

Merv’s Weekly Uranium Review

for week ending 12 August 2011

Merv’s Daily Uranium Index

Market Data for Friday 12 Aug 2011

Open: 155.69

High: 158.50

Low: 152.61

Close: 155.48

Volume: 3252

Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.

Note that additional charts of the Indices were posted earlier and should be viewed during this commentary.

Still away on vacation so right to the analysis.

Before I forget Terra Ventures which is still in the list should be taken off. It has merged into Hathor Exploration and I just wasn’t watching lately. It will be delisted and replaced by ?? next week.

The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed on Friday with a daily gain of .23 points or o.15%. There were 21 daily winners, 21 losers and 8 stocks just bumming around. Cameco lost 0.2%, Denison gained 3.1%, Extract gained 2.8%, Paladin lost 1.3% and Uranium One was just bumming around. Market Vectors Uranium + Nuclear Energy ETF lost 0.5% while Global X Uranium ETF gained 0.6%.

For the full week the Merv’s Weekly Uranium Index gained 19.78 points or 0.38% (the Daily Index lost 1.07%). There were 22 weekly winners, 22 losers and 6 stocks just bumming around all week. Cameco lost 5.6%, Denison gained 5.1%, Extract lost 3.8%, Paladin gained 3.6% and Uranium One gained 2.3%. Market Vectors Uranium + Nuclear Energy ETF lost 3.5% while Global X Uranium ETF gained 1.7%.

LONG TERM

The long term has still not turned around.

Trend: The Daily and Weekly Indices remain below their negative long term moving averages.

Strength: The long term momentum indicators remain in their negative zones and below their negative trigger lines.

Volume: The volume indicator remains below its negative long term trigger line.

The only rating I can give the long term at this time is BEARISH.

INTERMEDIATE TERM

Trend: The Daily Index remains below its negative sloping intermediate term moving average line.

Strength: The intermediate term momentum indicator remains in its negative zone but is moving upwards and has just crossed above its trigger line. The trigger, however, is still sloping downward.

Volume: The volume indicator is turning upward but is still slightly below its intermediate term trigger line. The trigger line remains sloping downward.

For the intermediate term the rating remains BEARISH. The short term moving average line confirms this bear by remaining below the intermediate term line.

SHORT TERM

Pretty much the same as above.

Trend: The Daily Index is still below its short term negative sloping moving average line. However, the Index is trending upward and closed on Friday just below the moving average line.

Strength: The short term momentum indicator entered its oversold zone and quickly bounced back above. It continues to trend upwards and has moved above its positive sloping trigger line. However, it remains inside its negative zone.

Volume: Most of the week the Daily Index had been moving upwards. Unfortunately the daily volume continued to decline during this upward Index move and is not encouraging.

Although improving the short term rating remains BEARISH. The very short term moving average line remains below the short term line for confirmation of this bear.

The Daily Index and the Stochastic Oscillator are both trending upwards so the immediate direction of least resistance looks to be the up side.

Merv's Weekly Uranium Indices 14 Aug 2011

2011-08-14T11:43:00.003-04:00

Merv's Weekly Uranium Table 14 Aug 2011

2011-08-14T11:42:00.001-04:00

Merv's Weekly Uranium Commentary 7 Aug 2011

2011-08-07T10:11:00.003-04:00

Merv’s Weekly Uranium Review

for week ending 05 August 2011

Merv’s Daily Uranium Index

Market Data for Friday 05 Aug 2011

Open: 158.04

High: 162.63

Low: 150.08

Close: 157.16

Volume: 6883

Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.

Note that additional charts of the Indices were posted earlier and should be viewed during this commentary.

Why me, why always me? That has been said by many individuals over time. I got hit by another rouge virus. This time, for the first time, my netbook got hit. Just as I was getting ready for travel on Monday it hit. Took over all of my communications. Up to then I though my netbook virus protection was pretty good but I guess not good enough. My destination was Barrie Ont and on arrival I took the netbook to Staples for cleaning. Got it back on Friday and installed a new protection. I now have Kaspersky in both computers. It seems to work great with the desktop so hope it works just as good with the netbook. That’s my excuse for not posting during the week and I’m sticking to it.

I guess this is another one of those weeks we would just like to put behind us. The Daily and Weekly Indices closed the week at new lows since reaching its high in Feb. That is usually a death message but I’ll wait for the new low to be further confirmed before doing anything rash. The momentum indicators have not quite made it into new lows for some minor encouragement.

The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed the week with a loss of 2.50 points or 1.57% on Friday. There were 11 winners, 34 losers and 5 stocks going nowhere. Cameco gained all of 0.1%, Denison lost 7.1%, Extract went nowhere, Paladin lost 5.1% and Uranium One lost 3.6%. The best winner of the day was Strathmore with a gain of 7.3% while the worst loser of the day was Forum Uranium with a loss of 16.7%. Market Vectors Uranium + Nuclear Energy ETF lost 1.2% while Global X Uranium ETF lost 5.6%.

For the week as a whole, do you REALLY want to know? The Merv’s Weekly Uranium Index closed lower by 556.19 points or 9.62% (the Daily Index lost 9.42% on the week). Everything took a hit, quality and speculatives. There were only 3 weekly winners, 45 losers and 2 stocks going nowhere. Cameco lost 6.4% on the week, Denison lost 22.8%, Extract lost 5.6%, Paladin lost 18.0% and Uranium One lost 11.6%. The best weekly winner was Tournigan with a gain of 5.0% while the worst weekly loser was USEC with a loss of 37.2%. Market Vectors Uranium + Nuclear Energy ETF lost 11.3% while Global X Uranium ETF lost 16.9%. Not a good week at all.

The long term can be easily summed up as everything is negative. Both Indices are well below their negative sloping long term moving average lines. Both momentum indicators are in their negative zones below their negative trigger lines and the Daily Index volume indicator is at new lows below its negative trigger line confirming the Index move. All in all BOTH long term ratings are BEARISH.

For the intermediate term the same as for the long term. Therefore without going through the routine the intermediate term rating is BEARISH. At the end of the week the short term moving average line dropped below the intermediate term line for confirmation of the bear.

For the short term let’s take a more detailed look at the indicators.

Trend: What can we say, the Daily Index is well below its short term moving average line and the line is sloping downward. Nothing in the chart changes the trend picture.

Strength: The short term momentum indicator is in its negative zone below its negative sloping trigger line. It has also just entered into its oversold zone but has not yet shown any sign of reversing back above the oversold line. Being in the oversold zone is not that important except to note the oversold position of the Index. It becomes important when the indicator reverses and moves back above its oversold line. This then is an indication that the negative Index move may be about to reverse.

Volume: The daily volume action is perking up a bit but not by much. Unfortunately, this perk-up is occurring on the Index down moves. The daily volume action has moved above its average 15 day volume line for the past two down days of Index trend.

Putting all that together one must consider the short term rating as BEARISH with the very short term moving average line trading below the short term line for confirmation of this bear.

As for the immediate direction of least resistance, one would have to be very brave to really try to suggest one knows what that direction will be. My feel is that after a couple of down days as we have had a bounce of some sort is in order. The Stochastic Oscillator has been moving sideways just above its oversold line and not moving lower. This may suggest some strengthening in the internal Index action but we’ll have to wait and see. I’ll go with the lateral direction as the immediate direction.

Merv's Weekly Uranium Indices 7 Aug 2011

2011-08-07T09:11:00.004-04:00

The Weekly Commentary will be posted but may be late.

Merv's Weekly Uranium Table 7 Aug 2011

2011-08-07T09:10:00.003-04:00

Merv's Weekly Uranium Commentary 31 July 2011

2011-07-31T15:06:00.002-04:00

Merv’s Weekly Uranium Review
for week ending 29 July 2011

Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data for Friday 29 Jul 2011

Open: 176.30
High: 182.28
Low: 175.34
Close: 181.16
Volume: 6202

Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.

Note that additional charts of the Indices were posted earlier and should be viewed during this commentary.

As you can see the summer lazy season is still here. With uranium taking a $2.00 hit early this week it was no surprise that the stocks did not do well at all. It was the speculative stocks that were once more slightly harder hit during the week. We can see two support levels ahead, one at the 168 level and the next at the 160 level. That 160 level should hold unless we are in for worse things than envisioned at this time.

The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed on Friday on the down side with a loss of 0.83 points or 0.47%. There were 17 winners, 21 losers and a whole lot of bummers (12 of them). Cameco lost 1.9%, Denison gained 4.7%, Extract was a bummer, Paladin gained 1.1% and Uranium One lost 1.5%. The best daily winner was a tie between Pitchstone and Uracan each with gains of 11.11%. The worst daily loser was First Uranium with a loss of 14.6%. Market Vectors Uranium + Nuclear Energy ETF lost 0.2% while Global X Uranium ETF lost 0.2%.

For the full week the Merv’s Weekly Uranium Index closed lower by 358.95 points or 5.85%. The Daily Index lost 4.22% on the week. There were 9 weekly winners, 40 weekly loser and one bummer. Cameco lost 2.0%, Denison lost 1.9%, Extract gained 2.5%, Paladin lost 2.9% and Uranium One lost 4.0%. The best weekly winner was Formation Metals with a gain of 13.3% while the loser of the week was First Uranium with a loss of 30.5%. Market Vectors Uranium + Nuclear Energy ETF lost 2.9% while Global X Uranium ETF lost 4.7%.

LONG TERM

Nothing much has changed from the long term perspective from last week.

Trend: Both Indices are still below their negative sloping long term moving average lines.

Strength: Both momentum indicators are still in their negative zones and had been heading upwards although they both have just dropped slightly below their still positive trigger lines.

Volume: The volume indicator is still not looking that hot and remains below its negative trigger line.

The long term rating remains BEARISH.

INTERMEDIATE TERM

Trend: The Daily Index is back sitting right on top of its still negative moving average line.

Strength: The momentum indicator has been moving nicely upwards from a low point in its negative zone but has not yet breached above the neutral line. With this week’s negative moves the momentum indicator has now dropped back below its now negative trigger line.

Volume: The volume indicator had been above its trigger line but dropped below the trigger on Friday. The trigger line is still very slightly positive in slope.

For the intermediate term the rating is now at the NEUTRAL level, mid way between a bull or bear. The short term moving average remains slightly above the intermediate term line and has not confirmed a bear yet. It remains positive.

SHORT TERM

Trend: The Daily Index is now below its negative sloping short term moving average line.

Strength: The momentum indicator has once more dropped into its negative zone and is below its negative trigger line.

Volume: The daily volume action remains low and not encouraging.

On the short term the rating is now back to the BEARISH mode. The very short term moving average line has turned downward but has not quite breached below the short term line for a non-confirmation of the bear. Possibly in a day or so it will drop below the intermediate term line, that is, if the Index does not perk up.

As for the immediate direction of least resistance, I’m going with the down side as the Stochastic Oscillator seems to have no intention of turning on a dime while the very short term moving average line is now in a downward path.

Merv's Weekly Uranium Indices 314 July 2011

2011-07-31T12:14:00.003-04:00

Merv's Weekly Uranium Table 317 July 2011

2011-07-31T12:13:00.002-04:00

Merv's Weekly Uranium Commentary 24 July 2011

2011-07-24T16:46:00.002-04:00

Merv’s Weekly Uranium Review
for week ending 22 July 2011

Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data for Friday 22 Jul 2011

Open: 176.30
High: 182.28
Low: 175.34
Close: 181.16
Volume: 6202

Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.

Note that additional charts of the Indices were posted earlier and should be viewed during this commentary.

I blame it on the crummy hot weather, this lack of posting. Today (Sunday) it’s at least reasonable. I can hear all those global warning enthusiasts proclaiming, see-global warming. But I know it’s been hotter than this, and for more days. I’m not talking the U.S. but Montreal. Now, for the foreseeable future the temp looks very nice, at least that’s what the Environment Canada is telling us.

It was really an uneventful week up until Friday. On Friday we have seen some movement in the more aggressive stocks with the Daily Index climbing almost 3%. The chart is suggesting that we are breaking out of that several weeks of snooze activity and entering a new phase in the uranium stocks. Most of the movement has been in the more aggressive stocks and especially First Uranium which took off on Friday. I guess speculators are thinking that AngloGold Ashanti will make a run for First Uranium since they just bought a pile of First Uranium shares for $0.60 (first Uranium closed at $0.59 up 53% on the day).

The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed on Friday with a gain of 5.82 points or 3.32%. There were 41 daily winners, 5 losers and 4 with their heads stuck in the sand. Cameco gained 1.9%, Denison gained 10.2%, Extract lost 0.1%, Paladin gained 8.1% and Uranium One gained 8.3%. The best daily winner was First Uranium with a daily gain of 53.3% while the loser of the day was Vena Resources with a loss of 5.6%. Market Vectors Uranium + Nuclear Energy ETF gained 2.7% while Global X Uranium ETF gained 4.8%.

For the full week the Merv’s Weekly Uranium Index gained 346.41 points or 5.98% while the Daily Index gained 5.17% on the week. There were 34 weekly winners, 13 losers and 3 stocks with their heads in the sand. Cameco gained 7.5%, Denison gained 13.2%, Extract lost 0.1%, Paladin gained 10.2% and Uranium One gained 11.1%. The best weekly winner was First Uranium with a weekly win of 40.5%. The worst weekly loser was Xemplar Energy with a loss of 7.1%. Market Vectors Uranium + Nuclear Energy ETF gained 6.0% while Global X Uranium ETF gained 8.5%.

After a Friday such as we have had let’s see where the uranium stocks stand after the close.

LONG TERM

Trend: Nothing much has changed in the long term. It takes more than a day or two of good activity to change the long term prognosis. Both the Weekly and Daily Indices remain below their negative sloping long term moving average lines.

Strength: Both momentum indicators remain in their negative zones but are moving upwards towards their neutral lines. Both are above their positive sloping trigger lines.

Volume: The volume indicator is starting to gain altitude but closed the week just a hair below its negative sloping trigger line.

The long term rating remains BEARISH but things seem to be heading towards some ratings improvement in the very near future.

INTERMEDIATE TERM

Trend: After Friday’s move the Daily Index closed above its moving average line and the line has turned oh so gently to the up side.

Strength: The momentum indicator is gaining altitude rapidly but unfortunately it is still below its neutral line in the negative zone. It is, however, above its positive sloping trigger line.

Volume: The volume indicator has now gained altitude and has closed above its intermediate term trigger line. The trigger has also turned very slightly to the up side.

Although the momentum is still in its negative zone it is moving higher at a rapid pace and so the rating for the intermediate term is now BULLISH. The short term moving average line has just crossed above the intermediate term line for confirmation of this bull.

SHORT TERM

Trend: On the short term the Daily Index has been moving higher for most of the past 4 weeks. It is above its positive sloping short term moving average line and has now broken above the previous several weeks of lateral markets.

Strength: The short term momentum indicator is in a sharp climb in its positive zone and heading rapidly towards its overbought zone. It is above its positive sloping trigger line.

Volume: The daily volume action perked up on Friday but that just might be due to the activity in that one stock, First Uranium. Still it’s at a high point relative to recent action.

Taking it all together one can only rate the short term as BULLISH. The very short term moving average confirms this bull by moving above the short term average line.

Now what about the future, immediate like? One might be tempted to disregard Friday’s action as a result of one stock activity. However, there were 12 stocks that made gains in the double digit on Friday so the activity was somewhat more wide spread than one stock. I would think that there would still be a follow through on Monday but then we should see after that. If no follow through then the down side may be in force for at least a few days.

Merv's Weekly Uranium Indices 24 July 2011

2011-07-24T15:36:00.002-04:00

Merv's Weekly Uranium Table 24 July 2011

2011-07-24T15:35:00.001-04:00

Merv's Weekly Commentary 17 July 2011

2011-07-17T16:42:00.003-04:00

Merv’s Weekly Uranium Review
for week ending 15 July 2011

Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data for Friday 15 Jul 2011

Open: 171.76
High: 174.03
Low: 169.66
Close: 172.25
Volume: 2906

Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.

Note that additional charts of the Indices were posted earlier and should be viewed during this commentary.

It looked like the Daily Index was going to make a move last week but in the end, nothing. Just no enthusiasm by speculators to get anything really going.

It’s too hot for concerted posting so this is a short one. Just the facts.

The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed Friday slightly on the up side by 0.93 points or 0.54%. There were 23 winners, 18 losers and 9 bummers. Cameco lost 0.5%, Denison gained 1.1%, Extract was a bummer, Paladin lost 1.2% and Uranium One gained 5.7%. The best winner of the day was Uracan with a gain of 12.5% while the loser of the day was Kivalliq with a loss of 10.3%. Market Vectors Uranium + Nuclear Energy ETF gained 0.9% while Global X Uranium ETF gained 1.2%.

On a weekly basis the Merv’s Weekly Uranium Index closed the week on the up side by 2.17 points or 0.04%. The Daily Index had a weekly loss of 1.19%. There were 22 weekly winners, 26 losers and 2 stocks bumming around. Cameco lost 5.1% on the week, Denison lost 3.7%, Extract lost 2.3%, Paladin lost 5.9% and Uranium One gained 8.6%. The best weekly winner was Titan Uranium with a weekly gain of 14.3% while the worst weekly loser was First Uranium with a weekly loss of 16.0%. Market Vectors Uranium + Nuclear Energy ETF lost 1.5% while Global X uranium ETF lost 2.0%.

LONG TERM

Trend: Both Indices are still trending below their respective negatively sloping moving average lines.

Strength: Both momentum indicators are still in their negative zones although they are above their positive trigger lines.

Volume: The Daily Index volume indicator is tracing a lateral trend and is still below its negative trigger line.

The long term rating remains BEARISH.

INTERMEDIATE TERM

Trend: The Daily Index has been budding up against its intermediate term moving average line all week and although on an intra-day basis it penetrated the line it just could not close above the line. It remains just below its moving average line and the line remains sloping in a downward direction.

Strength: The momentum indicator has been moving higher since mid-June but remains in its negative zone. It is, however, above its positive sloping trigger line.

Volume: The volume indicator continues to move sideways but has breached its trigger line to the up side by just a smidgeon. The line itself is still in a very gentle downward slope.

The intermediate term rating remains BEARISH, confirmed by the short term moving average line remaining below the intermediate term line.

SHORT TERM

Trend: The Daily Index has been bouncing above and below its short term moving average line all week. It finished on Friday just above the line. The line itself turned to the up side in late June and remains sloping upwards.

Strength: Since mid-June the short term momentum indicator had been basically moving higher and had moved into its positive zone. It dropped below its neutral line during the week but did close just into its positive zone again. It is, however, below its negatively sloping trigger line.

Volume: The daily volume activity remains pathetically low and has remained below its 15 day average volume all week.

On the short term the rating is BULLISH. The very short term moving average line remains below the short term line for a non-confirmation of this bull at this time.

Merv's Weekly Uranium Indices 17 July 2011

2011-07-17T15:03:00.002-04:00

Merv's Weekly Uranium Table 17 July 2011

2011-07-17T15:02:00.000-04:00

Merv's Weekly Commentary 10 July 2011

2011-07-10T15:39:00.003-04:00

Merv’s Weekly Uranium Review

for week ending 8 July 2011

Merv’s Daily Uranium Index

Market Data for Friday 8 Jul 2011

Open: 175.61

High: 177.20

Low: 172.23

Close: 174.32

Volume: 3127

Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.

Note that additional charts of the Indices were posted earlier and should be viewed during this commentary.

I guess you have noticed that I have not been posting lately. There is just nothing happening to post about. One can only say the same thing so many times before it gets monotonous. Anyway, until some starts to happen during the week those postings will continue to be limited. We still have the weekend posting for an overall summary of events, from the technical perspective.

Uranium itself continues to be in a dive so that may be part of the problem here. Of course, it is expected that the stocks will move ahead of the metal so we keep watching here.

The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed on Friday with a loss of 1.35 points or 0.77%. There were 9 winners, 33 losers and 8 stocks asleep. Cameco lost 0.2%, Denison lost 2.6%, Extract gained 2.5%, Paladin lost 1.5% and Uranium One lost 2.7%. The best winner of the day was Strathmore with a gain of 9.7% while the loser of the day was JNR with a loss of 7.4%. Market Vectors Uranium + Nuclear Energy ETF lost 1.1% while Global X Uranium ETF lost 1.0%.

For the full week the Merv’s Weekly Uranium Index closed with a gain of 367.05 points or 6.77% (the Daily Index gained 3.21% on the week). It was a week where the more speculative stocks set the pace. There were 34 weekly winners, 10 losers and 6 sleepers. Cameco was a sleeper, Denison gained 2.7%, Extract gained 1.2%, Paladin gained 3.1% and Uranium One gained 9.1%. The best weekly winner was Pele Mountain with a weekly gain of 50.0% while the loser of the week was JNR with a loss of 7.4%. Market Vectors Uranium + Nuclear Energy ETF gained 0.5% while Global Uranium ETF gained 4.1%.

Looking at the chart of the Daily Index there does not seem to be any significant patterns to see except for a very short term double bottom, which has almost reached its projected move. So, on to the indicators.

LONG TERM

Trend: Both the Daily and Weekly Indices continue to trade below their long term moving average lines and the lines continue in a negative direction.

Strength: The long term momentum indicators for both Indices remain in their negative zones but have moved above their trigger lines. The trigger lines have also turned to the up side.

Volume: The volume indicator continues below its negative sloping long term trigger line.

The long term rating remains BEARISH as of the Friday close.

INTERMEDIATE TERM

Trend: The Daily Index is busting it’s a—trying to get through that intermediate term moving average line but as of the Friday close it has not been able to break through. It remains just below the moving average line and the line remains in a negative slope.

Strength: The intermediate term momentum indicator remains in its negative zone but has moved above its trigger line. The trigger is also in a positive slope.

Volume: Although the volume indicator is basically in a lateral trend it has moved slightly above its intermediate term trigger line although the trigger remains in a negative slope.

As of the Friday close the intermediate term rating remains BEARISH but close to improving. The short term moving average line remains below the intermediate term line for continued confirmation of this bear.

SHORT TERM

The short term looks pretty good from the indicator’s standpoint.

Trend: The Daily Index is above its positive sloping short term moving average line.

Strength: The short term momentum indicator is now in its positive zone and above its positive sloping trigger line.

Volume: The daily volume action is still the indicator of concern. During a rally one likes to see the volume steadily increase as the price increases. The daily volume is just sitting there at a pathetic low level. Speculators are still not fully convinced that a real rally leading to a new bull move is in progress. It’s a wait and see game for now.

On the Friday close the short term rating is now BULLISH. This is confirmed by the very short term moving average line being above the short term line.

As for the immediate direction of least resistance, unfortunately it does look like the rally might have petered out. The Stochastic Oscillator had moved into its overbought zone but is now below its trigger line and below its overbought line. This too often suggests a very short term rest or reaction very soon. I’ll go with the lateral direction for a day or two and see how this SO progresses.

Merv's Weekly Uranium Indices 10 July 2011

2011-07-10T11:57:00.004-04:00

Merv's Weekly Uranium Table 10 July 2011

2011-07-10T11:56:00.000-04:00

Merv's Weekend Commentary 4 July 2011

2011-07-04T10:06:00.001-04:00

Merv’s Weekly Uranium Review
for week ending 1 July 2011

Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data for Friday 1 Jul 2011

Open: 166.36
High: 170.63
Low: 164.98
Close: 168.90
Volume: 4969

Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.

Note that additional charts of the Indices were posted earlier and should be viewed during this commentary.

A happy 4th of July to all my American readers. Party, but stay sober, or at least don’t drive if you have had too much.

Today I am going to do basically what I did for my this weekend’s gold commentary (posted at various North American and European web sites each week). After my normal statistics I will summarize the indicators and produce the ratings. Not much different from the usual but in a slightly different format. So, here goes.

Before starting, when a market has been beat up as badly as the uranium market has we are prone to look for any sign that the end of the decline is at hand. It does seem like the Daily Index wants to move higher. The reaction over the past several days held above the June 20th low and the Thursday close is higher than the previous 22 June close. All this is from the strictly very short term basis but hey, all new trends start from the very short term basis. Let’s hope.

The Canadian exchanges were closed on Friday and the Daily Index has only a few stocks from the U.S. exchanges therefore the Daily Index ended the week at the Thursday close. For the Weekly Index the data used is the weekly closing data so that those stocks trading on the U.S. market show the Friday close while the rest are actually their Thursday close. Things should get evened out by Tuesday.

The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed on Thursday with a gain of 3.08 points or 1.86%. There were 32 winners, 14 losers and 4 stocks that still can’t figure out what to do. Cameco gained 1.5%, Denison gained 8.9%, Extract gained 1.9%, Paladin gained 2.8% and Uranium One gained 6.4%. The best Thursday winner was Rockgate with a gain of 12.8% while the worst Thursday loser was Mawson with a loss of 6.7%. Market Vectors Uranium + Nuclear Energy ETF gained 1.9% while Global X Uranium ETF gained 3.7%.

For the week ending Friday the Merv’s Weekly Uranium Index closed the week with a loss of 66.61 points or 1.21%. The Daily Index, however, gained on the week by 1.92%. There were 22 weekly winners. 24 losers and 4 stocks that still can’t figure out what to do. Cameco gained 4.0% on the week, Denison also gained 4.0%, Extract gained 8.8%, Paladin gained 1.6% and Uranium One lost 2.6%. The best weekly winner was USEC with a gain of 10.4% while the loser of the week was Macusani Yellowcake with a loss of 21.7%. Market Vectors Uranium + Nuclear Energy ETF gained 4.6% while Global X Uranium ETF gained 3.6%.

As a simple technician I basically look at three things to determine where we are in the market: trend, strength of trend (momentum) and volume activity behind the trend. Patterns are also reviewed where they appear important (to me).

LONG TERM

Trend: Both the Weekly and Daily Indices are far below their negative sloping moving average lines.

Strength: Both long term momentum indicators (weekly and daily) are in their negative zones. Looking at the daily indicator it is starting to move higher and has crossed above its trigger line. The trigger has also very, very slightly turned to the up side.

Volume: The volume indicator has been moving steadily lower but seems to have perked up in the past few days. It is still below its negative sloping trigger line.

Putting all that into my secret formula I still get a BEARISH rating for both Indices on the long term.

INTERMEDIATE TERM

Trend: The Daily Index remains below its negatively sloping moving average line. It is also in the middle of a negative sloping channel.

Strength: The intermediate term momentum indicator remains in its negative zone but is moving upward. It has already crossed above its trigger line and the trigger is in a positive slope.

Volume: The volume indicator is starting to move higher and has just reached a level very slightly below its negative sloping trigger line.

The secret formula gives us a rating that is still BEARISH. The short term moving average line remains below the intermediate term line for confirmation.

SHORT TERM

Trend: The Daily Index closed above its short term moving average line and the line is sloping upwards. The Thursday close is now at a new three week high so the direction looks to be to the up side.

Strength: The short term momentum indicator is moving upward rapidly but at the Thursday close is still slightly below its neutral line in the negative zone. It is above its positive sloping trigger line.

Volume: The daily volume action is still relatively low and not giving us any great message. If the Index continues higher while the volume remains low, that is a negative sign of lack of speculator interest and the trend can’t last long.

For Thursday the magic secret formula is now giving us a BULLISH rating for the short term. The very short term moving average line has moved above the short term line for confirmation of this bull.

The weekend of two celebrations (Canada and the U.S.) has muddled the picture a bit as far as trying to guess the immediate direction for the uranium stocks. I’ll leave that guess for Tuesday.

Merv's Weekly Uranium Indices 3 July 2011

2011-07-03T08:38:00.003-04:00

Note that the Daily Index chart is based upon data till the end of trading on Thursday as the Canadian markets were closed on Friday. The Weekly Index chart is based upon weekly closing data so that a few of the component stocks, those trading on the American exchanges, were for the full week. This is also true for the weekly Table below.

Merv's Weekly Uranium Table 3 July 2011

2011-07-03T08:37:00.001-04:00

Merv's Daily Uranium Commentary 28 June 2011

2011-06-28T17:31:00.001-04:00

After The Close, 28 Jun 2011

Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data

Open: 163.37
High: 166.19
Low: 161.51
Close: 164.55
Volume: 3446

Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.

Just a brief note again as nothing is still happening. The one interesting point to note on the chart is that the previous Daily Index support has now become a resistance level. This now seems to be the level to watch for something happening. Until then, relax.

The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed the day very slightly on the up side with an advance of 0.42 points or 0.25%. There were 15 winners, 23 losers and a whole lot of stocks not playing the game, 12 of them. Cameco gained 1.2%, Denison lost 2.4% as did Extract, Paladin gained 1.6% and Uranium One lost 1.2%. Market Vectors Uranium + Nuclear Energy ETF gained 0.7% while Global X Uranium ETF gained 0.9%.

All time periods are BEARISH today so no use wasting time on them.

Merv's Weekly Uranium Commentary 26 June 2011

2011-06-26T16:40:00.003-04:00

Merv’s Weekly Uranium Review
for week ending 24 June 2011

Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data for Friday 24 Jun 2011

Open: 167.54
High: 169.78
Low: 163.99
Close: 165.72
Volume: 9574

Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.

Note that additional charts of the Indices were posted earlier and should be viewed during this commentary.

It’s been a rotten week so this is going to be short. To finish off the week, as I was in the middle of my Gold service commentary (they are paying clients so get first crack at my time) we had a power failure. I had lived in California (throughout the 1960’s and early 1970’s, a great time to be living in California) for some 13 years and never experienced a power outage. On moving to Quebec in 1973 the first thing I experienced was a power outage. I have since found out that power outages in this Province (I don’t know about the rest of Canada) is not an unusual event. Over the years I have experienced more than one outage that lasted for many, many days, including our famous “Ice Storm Outage”. Frustration does not improve with age.

The commentary is short for that reason but hope to be back with my normal next week (where have I heard that before?).

It looked for a while that a rally was starting but that seemed to stall out on Thursday and Friday. It still looks like the Daily Index wants to move higher but there is no real strength behind the move so any rally from here should be suspect until some better strength comes into the picture.

From the standpoint of ratings, there is no real change in the long term or intermediate term. Both are still BEARISH so I’ll leave it there for this week.

On the short term that’s where things are getting interesting. We have sort of a mixed bag in the indicators. The Daily Index closed the week very slightly above its short term moving average line but the line itself is still in a downward slope. The momentum indicator remains in its negative zone but is above its positive sloping moving average line. The daily volume action remains very low but seemed to perk up on Friday. However, this was due to the actions of one stock and not the actions of the component stocks in general so I would not place any emphasis on this perk-up. Putting all that together, and going to my magic formula for determining the rating, I get a short term rating of + NEUTRAL, one level below a full bullish rating. Although the very short term moving average line seems to be moving in an upward direction real fast it is just a hair below the short term average and therefore basically confirming that we are not quite at the bullish level.

As for the immediate direction of least resistance, the Stochastic Oscillator has been ahead of the game for several days but seems to have given up on Friday. I’m therefore going with the lateral direction for a day or so to see what happens next.

Merv's Weekly Uranium Indices 25 Jun 2011

2011-06-25T15:07:00.002-04:00

Merv's Weekly Uranium Table 25 Jun 2011

2011-06-25T15:06:00.001-04:00

Merv's Daily Uranium Commentary 23 Jun 2011

2011-06-23T17:33:00.001-04:00

Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data

Open: 165.22
High: 168.01
Low: 161.78
Close: 166.03
Volume: 4266

Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.

Haven’t posted since the weekend so thought I’d at least post the chart. Nothing much is still happening. One can die of boredom waiting for some real action. But hope springs eternal, as they say so we will keep on trucking.

The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed lower by 0.99 points or 0.59%. There were 21 winners, 22 losers and 7 stocks going nowhere. Cameco gained 1.7%, Denison gained 2.3%, Extract lost 10.3%, Paladin gained 7.1% and Uranium One lost 0.4%. The best daily winner was Macusani with a gain of 18.8% while the loser of the day was Wealth Minerals with a loss of 14.0%. Market Vectors Uranium + Nuclear Energy ETF gained 0.1% while Global X Uranium ETF gained 1.1%.

Full analysis on the weekend.

Merv's Weekly Uranium Commentary 19Jun2011

2011-06-19T17:05:00.003-04:00

Merv’s Weekly Uranium Review
for week ending 17 June 2011

Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data for Friday 17 Jun 2011

Open: 162.59
High: 167.51
Low: 159.54
Close: 164.52
Volume: 5992

Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.

Note that additional charts of the Indices were posted earlier and should be viewed during this commentary.

Darn, it still looks like the uranium stocks have not seen their bottom. I had hoped that the bottom would have been reached some time back. Just shows that technical analysis is not perfect – but it’s the best you discipline for investing, speculating or gambling in the market. So, let’s see where the week’s activities have left us.

The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed on Friday with a gain of 2.05 points or 1.26%. There were 22 winners, 23 losers and 5 stocks bumming around. Cameco lost 2.4%, Denison gained 5.3%, Extract was bumming around, Paladin gained 2.1% and Uranium One gained 1.1%. The best winner of the day was Mawson with a gain of 22.7% while the loser of the day was Continental Precious with a loss of 9.7%. Market Vectors Uranium + Nuclear Energy ETF gained 0.9% while Global X Uranium ETF gained 0.2%.

For the full week the Merv’s Weekly Uranium Index lost 267.23 points or 4.79% (the Daily lost only 2.28%). There were 12 weekly winners, 38 weekly losers and no stocks bumming around for the full week. Cameco lost 8.5%, Denison gained 1.7%, Extract gained 3.3%, Paladin lost 10.5% and Uranium One gained 3.2%. The best weekly winner was First Uranium with a gain of 29.6% while the loser of the week was U308 Corp with a loss of 34.8%. Market Vectors Uranium + Nuclear Energy ETF lost 0.9% while Global X Uranium ETF lost 3.3%.

The long term indicators remain a disaster area so no need to go into them yet. They are all negative and the long term rating remains BEARISH.

The intermediate term looks a little better but not by much. All the indicators are also still negative so I’ll just go straight to the rating, BEARISH. The short term moving average confirms this bear.

On the short term one should see the early beginnings of a turn around here. Nothing yet to see here but things are getting very, very close to a possible change in the short term indicators. For now the Daily Index remains just very slightly below its negative sloping moving average line. In fact it is so close that the daily high on Friday was above the line but the Index still closed just below. As for the momentum indicator, it remains in its negative zone but also seems to be perking up. It has crossed above its trigger line but the trigger is still in a negative slope. The daily volume action is still relatively small as it has been for over two and a half months, since the plunge days. Putting it all together we still have a short term rating that is BEARISH with the very short term moving average line confirming.

As for the immediate direction of least resistance, I’m going for the up side. Friday’s Daily Index seems to suggest a bounce in progress and the Stochastic Oscillator has been in a climb for several days despite the negative Index action during that time.

One point of positive interest are the momentum indicators. Although the long term momentum indicator remains confirming the Index action both the intermediate and short term indicators are giving us a positive divergence indication. Should the Daily Index move higher from here those divergences will be confirmed. So, let’s look towards the up side. How far up? Well, there is just too much damage done to the Indices so we should be in for a rally but possibly not yet a trend reversal (from the long term perspective).

Merv's Weekly Uranium Indices 18 June 2011

2011-06-18T15:53:00.003-04:00

Merv's Weekly Uranium Table 18 June 2011

2011-06-18T15:52:00.003-04:00

Merv's Daily Commentary 14 June 2011

2011-06-14T18:33:00.004-04:00

After The Close, 14 Jun 2011

Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data

Open: 164.44
High: 168.08
Low: 161.90
Close: 165.70
Volume: 5818

Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.

We had a downer yesterday and a lesser upper today. Looking at the candlestick action, today’s action looks very much like a bottoming out and the start of a bounce or rally (but not yet a bull move). There is just too much damage done to the Index with its move into new bear lows that would take some reasonable upside action to get back in a bullish mood.

The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed higher by 2.22 points or 1.36%. There were 31 winners today, 14 losers and 5 stocks still totally confused. Cameco lost 0.7%, Denison gained 4.7%, Extract gained 11.1%, Paladin lost 3.6% and Uranium One gained 7.6%. The best winner of the day were two stocks, CanAlaska and Powertech each with a gain of 11.76%. The loser of the day was Xemplar Energy with a loss of 7.1%. Market Vectors Uranium + Nuclear Energy ETF gained 0.9% while Global X Uranium ETF gained 2.5%.

The chart tells us the whole story at this point. Everything is still negative but we are seeing sign of a possible turn. When you have a down day followed by a day where the action was all within the previous day’s action (daily high and low) this suggests a possible halt to the down move with hopes for a bounce or rally ahead. That’s about the best I can come up with for today. So, ratings are all BEARISH with the short term the most likely to show some signs of strengthening. The most likely action for tomorrow is some upside but not necessarily a violent up move.

Merv's Weekly CCommentary 12 June 2011

2011-06-12T16:29:00.001-04:00

Merv’s Weekly Uranium Review

for week ending 10 June 2011

Merv’s Daily Uranium Index

Market Data for Friday 10 Jun 2011

Open: 170.11

High: 171.69

Low: 165.64

Close: 168.36

Volume: 4873

Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.

Note that additional charts of the Indices were posted earlier and should be viewed during this commentary.

Well, I didn’t expect the Daily Index to drop below its previous plunge low but here it is, at new bear market lows. What gives? Maybe uranium is in for another lengthy slump before the fears of world wide melt-downs is overcome. For now, I guess fear reigns. Too bad that fear overcomes knowledge.

Have just returned from a couple weeks of vacation. That’s a time period when you work harder just trying to look as if you are having a good relaxing time, then it’s worth (but you are not going to admit it). As you have seen there was a decided lack of posting during this time. I’m back so posting should be more on a regular schedule although not necessarily every day. Today will be short as I am still not recovered from all that relaxing. The markets (uranium, that is) have been in a steady slide sine I left on vacation. I’m back so the markets can start to perk up again.

The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed on Friday with a loss of 2.89 points or 1.69%. There were 13 winners, 35 losers and only 2 stocks bumming around. Cameco lost 1.5%, Denison lost 3.3%, Extract lost 0.8%, Paladin lost 2.1% and Uranium One lost 3.1%. The best daily winner was Forum Uranium with a gain of 9.1% while the loser of the day was Rockgate Capital with a loss of 7.5%. Market Vectors Uranium + Nuclear Energy ETF lost 1.4% while Global X Uranium ETF lost 2.2%.

For the full week the Merv’s Weekly Uranium Index lost 500.47 points or 8.23% (the Daily Index lost 6.98% on the week). There were 6 weekly winners, 42 losers and 2 stocks bumming around. Cameco lost 7.5%, Denison lost 13.7%, Extract lost 3.2%, Paladin lost 11.2% and Uranium One lost 18.3%. The best weekly winner was Powertech Uranium with a gain of 5.7% while the loser of the week was Xemplar Energy with a loss of 22.2%. Market Vectors Uranium + Nuclear Energy ETF lost 4.3% while Global X Uranium ETF lost 8.8%.

Without going into any great details it is obvious that all three time periods remain in a negative mode. All three ratings are BEARISH and both the intermediate and short term ratings are confirmed by the next level moving averages.

One interesting point to ponder upon are the momentum indicators. The long term indicator is moving into new bear market lows along with the Index. The intermediate term indicator is moving lower but has not quite entered new lows while the short term indicator is still some distance from new lows. What this means, if anything, I’m not sure. Along the same lines, the Stochastic Oscillator is in a turn around mode. It is still in its oversold zone but has already moved above its trigger line and could cross above its oversold line any day for a rally signal. I’ll just have to watch what action follows and once I know I can then say “I knew it all along”.

Back to normal next (or is it this) week.

Merv's Weekly Uranium Indices 12 June 2011

2011-06-12T13:32:00.004-04:00

The Weekly Commentary may be a little late today. Just getting organized after a couple of weeks away from home.

Merv's Weekly Uranium Table 12 June 2011

2011-06-12T13:31:00.001-04:00

Merv's Weekly Commentary 05 June 2011

2011-06-05T10:48:00.002-04:00

Merv’s Weekly Uranium Review

for week ending 03 June 2011

Merv’s Daily Uranium Index

Market Data for Friday 03 Jun 2011

Open: 182.16

High: 184.87

Low: 179.60

Close: 180.99

Volume: 3298

Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.

Note that additional charts of the Indices were posted earlier and should be viewed during this commentary.

The bounce off the previous low level lasted a little over a week and now we are back to the down side. Just my guess but I still don’t think that the down side will penetrate into new low levels. That previous intra-day low of March 15^th is still expected to hold. If it does so and we do end up with a rally from these levels then that would be very significant. We would then have what technicians call a double bottom, a strong bullish pattern. Although the long term momentum indicator still provided a negative lower low at the Index recent low point the other momentum indicators indicate a strengthening in the Index at that low. The intermediate and short term indicators had higher lows than the plunge low. The volume indicator continues to make new bear market lows but this is more of a function of daily minor negative Index moves than any sudden negative volume action. The daily volume action itself is still very low, which is what one expects during a price (Index) decline.

The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed on Friday on the down side with a loss of 1.72 points or 0.94%. There were 15 winners, 25 losers and 10 stocks totally confused. Cameco lost 1.6%, Denison lost 2.4%, Extract was totally confused, Paladin lost 3.4% and Uranium One lost 0.3%. The best daily winner was a tie between Fission Energy and Pitchstone, both with gains of 10.34%. The worst loser was Powertech with a loss of 12.5%. Market Vectors Uranium + Nuclear Energy ETF lost 0.8% while Global X Uranium ETF lost 1.2%.

For the week as a whole the Merv’s Weekly Uranium Index lost 582.04 points or 8.74% (the Daily Index lost 4.68% on the week). There was only one weekly winner, 47 losers and 2 totally confused. Cameco lost 2.6%, Denison lost 10.5%, Extract lost 3.5%, Paladin lost 8.2% and Uranium One lost 9.5%. The best weekly winner out of that single one winner was, the single one winner, Altius with a weekly gain of 1.0%. The worst loser was Uracan with a weekly loss of 23.3%. Market Vectors Uranium + Nuclear Energy ETF lost 2.9% while Global X Uranium ETF lost 7.3%.

Looking at the long term charts and indicators there is still no real clear cut indication of a turn around in the making. Both Daily and Weekly Uranium Indices are below their negative sloping moving average line with no thought of moving above for at least another few weeks. The momentum indicators for both Indices are still in their negative zones and below their negative trigger lines. The Daily Index volume indicator is making new bear lows and remains below its long term trigger line. The only rating I can give the long term remains BEARISH.

Just a note. If you look at both of the long term charts posted earlier you will see how the momentum indicator was showing weakness as the Index moved into new highs and how they both dropped below their overbought lines and below a support before the Index really plunged. The uranium stocks were ready for a bear trend long before the problems in Japan.

On the intermediate term the Index came very close to breaking above the negative moving average line but turned back to the down side on Monday and remains there. The momentum indicator, although it started to firm up a bit before this past week, is in its negative zone and has once more dropped below a negative trigger line. As for the volume indicator, it remains below its negative trigger line. All in all, the intermediate term rating remains BEARISH. This rating is confirmed by the short term moving average line remaining below the intermediate term line.

The short term was starting to look encouraging but this week killed all that. With every day being a bummer it’s not surprising that we are once more in short term negative territory. The Daily Index closed on Friday once more below its moving average line and the line has just turned very slightly downward. The momentum indicator has again dropped into its negative zone and below its negative trigger line. As for the daily volume action, it remains very low as can be expected. The short term rating is once more BEARISH but without confirmation yet from the very short term moving average line. Although the very short term line is head lower it has not quite breached below the short term line. That could be another day or two.

As for the immediate direction of least resistance, that would normally be to the down side with the recent action but since the Daily Index is so close to a strong support I will go once more with the lateral direction before getting too bullish or bearish from here.

05 June 2011

2011-06-05T09:20:00.001-04:00

There will be a weekend commentary today but will be posted late, either late afternoon or most likely early evening.

Merv's Weekly Uranium Indices 4 June 2011

2011-06-04T17:14:00.001-04:00

Merv's Weekly Uranium Table 4 June 2011

2011-06-04T17:13:00.001-04:00

Merv's Weekly Commentary 29 May 2011

2011-05-29T12:46:00.002-04:00

Merv’s Weekly Uranium Review
for week ending 27 May 2011

Merv’s Daily Uranium Index
Market Data for Friday 27 May 2011

Open: 185.41
High: 192.15
Low: 184.24
Close: 189.88
Volume: 6240

Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.

Note that additional charts of the Indices were posted earlier and should be viewed during this commentary.

The short term Daily Index chart (shown here) is starting to look better and better. It almost looks like a rally going on. Short term wise it’s on the move but as yet it has not really affected the other time periods. That might come shortly with some more upside action.

The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed on Friday with a good upside move, up 4.76 points or 2.57%. The volume perked up relative e to recent volume but was not extra ordinary. It was good based upon the volume of other sectors, as the U.S. market players were taking an early long weekend and away from the action. There were 40 winners on Friday, 5 losers and 5 that weren’t sure if they wanted to be winners or losers. Cameco gained 1.7%, Denison gained 9.1%, Extract gained 2.4%, Paladin gained 1.2% and Uranium One gained 2.2%. The best winner of the day was Uracan with a gain of 20.0% while the loser of the day was Quaterra with a loss of 6.8%. Market Vectors Uranium + Nuclear Energy ETF gained 1.5% while the Global X Uranium ETF gained 3.4%.

For the full week the more aggressive (speculative) stocks took the lead. The Merv’s Weekly Uranium Index gained 10.1% for the week while the Daily Index gained only 6.0% for the full week. There were 41 weekly winners, 6 losers and 3 not knowing which way to go. This was the best weekly showing in some time. Cameco gained 7.4% on the week, Denison gained 15.7%, Extract gained 9.8%, Paladin gained 3.3% and Uranium One gained 3.0%. The best weekly winner was Uracan with a gain of 36.4% while the worst loser was Terra Ventures with a loss of 5.6%. Market Vectors Uranium + Nuclear Energy ETF gained 2.2% on the week while the Global X Uranium ETF gained 6.5%.

On the long term we are still some distance from any change. Both the Daily and Weekly Indices are still well below their respective long term negative sloping moving average lines. The momentum indicators are starting to improve. Although both are still in their negative zones they are above their trigger lines with the triggers just turning to the up side. The long term volume indicator is moving in a basic lateral path and remains below its negative sloping trigger line. All in all, the long term rating remains BEARISH.

On the intermediate term we are starting to close up the emptiness between go and no-go. The Daily Index just touched the intermediate term moving average line but still closed below the line. The line itself is still in a downward slope. The intermediate term momentum indicator remains in its negative zone but is moving higher and might cross into the positive very soon. It is above its now positive sloping trigger line. As for the volume indicator, it still needs some more work before it crosses above its trigger line, which itself remains sloping negatively. All this still gives us a BEARISH rating for the intermediate term. The short term moving average line, although moving higher, is still below the intermediate term line confirming the present bear.

On the short term we are seeing brightness. The Daily Index is now above its positive sloping short term moving average line. The momentum indicator has now moved into its positive zone and above its positive sloping trigger line. The daily volume action is still pretty low but seems to be improving slowly. Speculators are dipping their toes into the water to see what transpires. This brings us to a BULLISH short term rating. The very short term moving average line has just crossed above the short term line for confirmation of this bull.

Now, what is the immediate prognosis? The direction of motion of the Daily Index is most definitely to the up side and is above its positive very short term moving average line. The aggressive Stochastic Oscillator is well in its positive zone. Unfortunately, the SO is also inside its overbought line which too often results in a reaction of some sort. I would expect the up moves to halt very shortly and maybe come down a notch. I don’t expect such reaction to last too long before the Index continues upwards. For now my guess is that there is a rest period to the move that should start very soon.

ENTRY ZONES

A commenter the other day asked about possible guidelines for entry into the uranium stocks. Here are just a few suggestions that can be used anytime.

Understand what you are doing in the market and what the risks are (there are ALWAYS risks). Do not risk capital unless you know what you are doing. Remember, it is YOUR capital. YOU risk it and the gains or losses are YOUR responsibility.

Decide what market discipline works for you and stick to it.

If you decide that the technical discipline works for you, understand what that discipline is telling you. Understand what the various chart patterns and/or indicators mean.

NEVER, NEVER, NEVER invest or speculate against the trend of the stock (or market). You can try gambling against the trend but understand that you ARE gambling whether in pennies or in “quality”.

The trend is your friend. Always invest or speculate with the trend.

Do not get too enamored with volume action unless you truly understand what it is telling you. It could be a very beneficial indicator BUT too often misused by speculators.

Although investing or speculating “with the trend” it is also beneficial to understand if such trend is gaining strength or losing strength. An up trend that is losing strength is prone to a reversal.

The Weekly Table of Technical Information and Ratings is a good place to get much of this technical information. It IS NOT recommendations but a guide towards your final investment or speculative decision. On the left of the front page of this blog there is a link where you will find a tutorial as to how to get the most from these weekly tables.

Hope this helps.

I will be on the move during the next couple of weeks but will try to get as many posts as I can.

Merv's Weekly Uranium Indices 28 May 2011

2011-05-28T17:14:00.003-04:00

Merv's Weekly Uranium Table 28 May 2011

2011-05-28T17:13:00.001-04:00

Merv's Daily Commentary 26 May 2011

2011-05-26T17:37:00.002-04:00

After The Close, 26 May 2011

Merv’s Daily Uranium Index

Market Data

Open: 182.45

High: 186.42

Low: 180.21

Close: 185.12

Volume: 4325

Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.

Slowly but steadily the Daily Index seems to be turning around. Even the daily volume is starting to the Daily Index seems to be turning around. Even the daily volume is starting to perk up a bit, not much but we will take any little improvement we can get. For now the short term is the time period most affected by the steady turn but the other periods are not all that far behind.

The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed with a gain of 3.29 points or 1.81%. There were 28 winners, 13 losers and 9 who can’t make up their minds. Cameco gained 0.2%, Denison gained 2.4%, Extract gained 6.5%, Paladin gained 4.0% and Uranium One gained 1.6%. The best winner of the day was Uranium Resources with a gain of 15.9% while we had two identical losers of the day, JNR Resources and Pitchstone each with a loss of 6.25%. Market Vectors Uranium + Nuclear Energy ETF gained 1.4% while Global X Uranium ETF gained 2.6%.

The long and intermediate term indicators are still in negative territory but improving. Still both periods ratings are BEARISH.

On the short term the Daily Index is moving nicely above its positive sloping moving average line. The momentum indicator is still a little bit inside its negative zone but heading upwards fast. It is above its positive trigger line and could go into the positive zone any day now. The daily volume, although still very low, is showing some signs of wanting to perk up. All in all the short term rating can now be improved to a BULLISH rating. The very short term moving average line has also just moved above the short term line for confirmation of this bull.

Looks like things are going in the right direction. Let’s keep it up. The immediate direction of least resistance is to the up side so we should get another positive day tomorrow.

Merv's Daily Uranium Commentary 24 May 2011

2011-05-24T17:46:00.001-04:00

After The Close, 24 May 2011

Merv’s Daily Uranium Index

Market Data

Open: 178.96

High: 182.22

Low: 176.92

Close: 179.15

Volume: 2908

Note that the volume is an average volume of round lot sales for the 50 component stocks. For total volume, multiply by 5000.

Nothing much is happening. We are just waiting for some action to start that will tell us what’s happening. Until then there will be limited posting.

The Merv’s Daily Uranium Index closed basically neutral with only a loss of 0.03 points or 0.02%. There were 22 winners, 22 losers and 6 bummers. Cameco gained 1.3%, Denison gained 4.6%, Extract 1.3%, Paladin lost 2.7% and Uranium One lost 1.9%. The best winner today was UEX Corp. with a gain of 10.0% while the loser of the day was U308 Corp. with a loss of 8.2%. Market Vectors Uranium + Nuclear Energy ETF lost 1.0% while Global X Uranium ETF gained 1.6%.

As mentioned above, nothing has changed so I’ll fall back with the weekend analysis and commentary.